Global Ag News For July 2.2025

TOP HEADLINES

China Corn Miller Shunned by North Dakota Near Deal for New Site

China’s Fufeng Group is selecting a new site to build a corn mill in the US after an earlier plan in North Dakota fell through amid heightened tensions between the world’s two biggest economies.

Hong Kong-traded Fufeng, which processes corn into biochemical products from monosodium glutamate to xanthan gum, is finalizing its decision on a location, according to an emailed statement to Bloomberg. The company’s Fufeng USA subsidiary is also advertising for engineering roles to aid in the design of the new wet mill.

The company had sought to build a $700 million facility in Grand Forks, North Dakota, but that project was abandoned in 2023 after it faced opposition linked to concerns over foreign entities owning property near US military sites. Seed company Syngenta AG, which was acquired by China National Chemical Corp. in 2017, was also ordered to sell land in Arkansas due to its China ties.

It’s uncertain if Fufeng’s new US plan will meet more opposition. China, the world’s top commodities importer, has been avoiding the purchase of American crops, with the ongoing trade dispute pressuring prices paid to American farmers.

The US recently concluded an anti-dumping probe into xanthan gum from China, which investigated companies including Fufeng.

Fufeng remains “committed to selecting the best possible location for a corn milling facility to support our operations, our customers and our community in the US market,” it said in the statement.

One potential US location is in Douglas County in central Illinois, according to a report earlier this year. Building in Illinois “would be a return to a major, stable employment base,” said Ken Dallmier, president of consultancy DemandSideAg whose family farm sits about 10 miles away.

Fufeng is also pursuing projects elsewhere. It signed an agreement to develop a corn processor worth $800 million in Kazakhstan, and is reportedly considering building a plant in Argentina.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1/4 in SRW, up 3/4 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans up 4 1/4; Soymeal down $1.40; Soyoil up 0.60.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 8 1/2 in SRW, down 1 3/4 in HRW, up 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 7; Soybeans up 6 3/4; Soymeal down $2.30; Soyoil up 1.67.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.6% in SRW, down 9.0% in HRW, up 2.4% in HRS; Corn is down 9.1%; Soybeans up 2.9%; Soymeal down 13.1%; Soyoil up 36.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans up 8 yuan; Soymeal down 14; Soyoil up 14; Palm oil up 62; Corn down 12 — Malaysian Palm is up 95.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 95 ringgit (+2.39%) at 4063.

There were changes in registrations (397 Soymeal). Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 915 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 1,781 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 1 were: SRW Wheat up 10,076 contracts, HRW Wheat up 4,755, Corn up 24,613, Soybeans up 15,303, Soymeal up 5,844, Soyoil up 6,635.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 01 JULY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: A largely mixed precipitation pattern is expected across North America during the next 10 days, with the heaviest totals in western Texas, and the driest conditions along the Southeast Gulf Coast
• SOUTH AMERICA: Well above normal precipitation could be in store for the Pampas region of Argentina during the 6-10 day period, as recent EC/GFS runs suggest
• EUROPE: Much of Europe is expected to receive a break from heat during the 6-10 day time frame, though resurgent warmth is expected thereafter
• EAST ASIA: A split precipitation pattern is expected in China through 10 days, with heavy totals from Sichuan through Hebei, and very dry conditions in the southeast / east-central parts of the country
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) is expected to spike into an extreme positive phase event during the next few days and will likely have strong influence on Southern Hemisphere weather patterns

 

RAIN BRINGS RELIEF TO MANY CROP AREAS OF NORTH AMERICA, BUT HEAT RISKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH JULY

What to Watch:

• Late June brought great improvement in soil moisture across the U.S. Corn Belt
• Relatively dry 15-day forecast is neutral for U.S. crops following recent rains
• A brief heatwave is expected across the Canadian Prairies, with a chance for local rains in Manitoba
• High probability of increasingly warm and dry conditions in mid/late July across the continent

 

Northern Plains: Though some showers may be possible over the next couple of days, most areas will be drier. However, a system will move into the region on Thursday night and is likely to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday. Overall, active weather continues next week as well with multiple disturbances moving through. Though some drought exists and more rain is needed, precipitation is generally coming at a good pace for the region, with drought concerns likely to ebb and flow between which areas get hit and which get missed over the next few weeks.

Central/Southern Plains: Wetness is still an issue for winter wheat harvest in some areas, though the rainfall has been largely favorable for corn and soybean development where severe weather and flooding have not occurred. A front is stalling out near the Red River, where showers continue for the next couple of days, Another system will move into the region on Friday with more widespread showers and thunderstorms likely into next week.

Midwest: Limited northern showers and increasing temperatures follow going into the holiday weekend. The drier trend will not last though as another system moves through over the weekend with a very slow-moving front likely to linger into next week and potential for another system to move through in the middle and end of next week. Overall, mostly favorable conditions continue in many areas, though there is a mixture of wetter and drier areas throughout the region.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: A front will push through on Tuesday, though the western end of it may bring showers into the region throughout the week with a great deal of uncertainty. We will also have to watch the potential for a tropical storm to develop in the Gulf later this week or weekend; a feature not captured well by models.

Canadian Prairies: Several more systems and disturbances are forecast to move through the region through next week, but will probably only bring through scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms, causing many areas to be missed. If that is for those across the south and east, that could be a larger concern for developing to reproductive wheat and canola.

Brazil: Corn is mostly mature with harvest increasing and frost has likely not been much of a concern for winter wheat in the south either. But specialty crops will have taken on some damage from last week. Colder temperatures this week should be south of the main specialty crop areas. Generally dry conditions are expected through next week, allowing some wet areas to recover.

Argentina: Though drier conditions will continue to promote harvest, rainfall is needed for winter wheat establishment. Very little is forecast until a front moves through this weekend, but even that is forecast to have little precipitation, too. A better chance may occur next week.

Europe: A system will move through northern areas Wednesday and Thursday and could bring some showers along its front. But a bigger system is forecast for this weekend into next week with more widespread showers, at least for northern areas. This system should also bring in more seasonable temperatures.

Black Sea: Areas of isolated showers continue this week, mostly in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe are likely to produce more showers for western areas this weekend and especially next week. With winter wheat maturing, drier conditions would be preferred for harvest, though corn and sunflower areas would enjoy more rainfall as soil moisture is still low in many areas.

Australia: Many areas remain too dry as winter wheat and canola try to build roots over the winter. A system is building off the East Coast, but much of its rainfall will be over coastal areas and not the inland wheat belt. Only limited showers will move through over the next couple of weeks, but rainfall will be more critical in another month or two as wheat gets into its reproductive stages.

China: The pattern stays active there with more areas of showers and thunderstorms throughout the week and possibly into next week. Overall favorable conditions are found elsewhere throughout the country.

 

The player sheet for 7/1 had funds: net buyers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,000 corn, buyers of 2,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 5,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued a new international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday.
• USDA CORRECTS CORN SALE DATA: On Tuesday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture corrected a report it had put out on June 24 about the sale of U.S. corn to Mexico. USDA said that exporters have sold 502,920 metric tons of U.S. corn – not 554,400 tons – for delivery to Mexico in the 2025/2026 marketing year, and 68,580 tons – not 75,600 – for delivery in the 2026/2027 marketing year.

PENDING TENDERS

• SOYMEAL TENDER: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 60,000 metric tons of soymeal sourced optionally from South America, the U.S. or China
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Soybean Crushings at 203.7M Bushels in May: USDA

USDA releases monthly oilseed report on website.

• Crushing 6.3% higher than same period last year
• Crude oil production 6.5% higher than same period last year
• Crude and once-refined oil stocks down 14.3% y/y

 

US Corn Used for Ethanol at 449.4M Bu in May

The following is a summary of US corn consumption for fuel and other products, according to the USDA.

• Corn for ethanol was 1.3% lower than in May 2024
• In total, mills consumed 501m bu of corn in May, a 1.6% decline over last year
• DDGS production fell to 1.776m tons

 

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending June 27 are based on four analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen slightly lower than last week at 1.08m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 24.296m bbl vs 24.404m a week ago

 

Brazil Corn Stockpiles to Rise Following Record Crop: Céleres

World’s second-largest corn exporter Brazil should see an increase in end stocks of the cereal to 20.5m tons at the end of the 2024-25 season, from 16.3m tons in the prior season, consulting firm Céleres says in report.

• Total corn production seen at 147.6m tons, company says in report
  • That compares to an 135.4m tons estimate from May
• Favorable weather seen boosting yields for the nations’ winter corn crop currently being harvested
• Domestic corn demand seen rising, with ethanol expansion taking total industrial use to 27.3m tons, up 17% YoY
• Consumption of corn in animal feed seen up 3.9% YoY, to 58.3m tons
  • “The likelihood of the market absorbing the entire volume of corn produced is low, resulting in more stockpiling and continued pressure on prices in the short and medium term”: Céleres

 

India’s June palm oil imports jump 61% to hit 11-month high

India’s palm oil imports soared to an 11-month high in June, driven by lower domestic inventories and a price discount to rivals soyoil and sunflower oil that encouraged refiners to ramp up purchases, according to five dealers.

Higher palm oil imports by India, the world’s biggest buyer of vegetable oils, will help bring down stocks in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia and support benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures FCPOc3.

Palm oil imports in June surged 61% month-on-month to 953,000 metric tons, the highest since July 2024, according to estimates from dealers.

“Palm oil has been regaining lost market share since last month. It is now nearly $100 per ton cheaper than competing oils,” said Sandeep Bajoria, CEO of Sunvin Group, a vegetable oil brokerage.

India imported, on average, 475,699 tons of palm oil each month during the first seven months of the current marketing year ending October 2025, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, which is set to publish its June import data by mid-July.

In the last marketing year, India imported an average of more than 750,000 tons of palm oil each month.

Soyoil imports in June fell 9% month-on-month to 363,000 tons, while sunflower oil imports rose 18% to 216,000 tons, dealers estimated.

Higher imports of palm oil and sunflower oil lifted India’s total edible oil imports in June by 30% from the month before to 1.53 million tons, the highest since November, according to dealers’ estimates.

Palm oil imports are expected to remain robust in the coming months as its prices are attractive amid a pickup in production in key producing countries, said Rajesh Patel, managing partner at GGN Research, an edible oil trader.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

Nepal’s edible oil imports were 75,000 tons in June, down from 155,000 tons in May, GGN Research estimated.

 

Palm Oil Seen in 3,800-4,000 Ringgit Range Through Year-End: BMI

Palm oil will likely trade between 3,800-4,000 ringgit a ton for the remainder of 2025, as US policies on biofuel blending targets provide a firm floor for prices of the tropical oil, according to BMI, a Fitch Solutions company.

• Still, any upside support will be moderated by an improving supply outlook from Malaysia and Indonesia, the world’s biggest growers, BMI said in a note
• Global production seen rising 2.4% y/y to 80.6m tons in the 2025-26 season
  • Output seen up 0.5% y/y in Malaysia to 19.5m tons; +3.3% in Indonesia to 47.5m tons
• Global consumption in 2025-26 may increase 1% y/y to 78.3m tons
• Global production surplus seen widening to 2.3m tons in 2025-26, from 1.2m tons the year before, which “will place a lid on global prices throughout the remainder of 2025 and into the first half of 2026”
• However, palm will likely continue trading at a significant discount to soy oil, which should encourage an upturn in demand from key importers such as India and China in the coming months
• Average prices forecast at 4,150 ringgit in 2025, easing to 4,075 ringgit in 2026

 

Malaysia’s Palm Oil Exports Expand to 1.29m Tons in June: AmSpec

Malaysia’s palm oil exports rose to 1.29m tons in June from 1.23m tons in May, according to AmSpec Agri.

• Exports +4.3% m/m

 

Trump Teases Trade, Farming Remarks During July 3 Iowa Visit

President Trump says he is traveling to Iowa on July 3 for a celebration commemorating the 250-year anniversary of the US.

• Trump posts about the event on Truth Social, saying he will “tell you some of the great things I’ve already done on trade, especially as it relates to farmers” during the event

 

US Agriculture Sentiment Weakens in June: Purdue Univ.

The Purdue University/CME Group’s agricultural sentiment index fell to 146 points in June from 158 in May, according to a survey of 400 agricultural producers.

• Current conditions component declined by 2 points from May
• Future expectations down by 18 points

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 13.93 Million Tns In June – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 13.93 MILLION METRIC TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 13.83 MILLION TNS IN THE LAST ESTIMATE – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.67 MILLION TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 2.05 MILLION TNS IN THE LAST ESTIMATE – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 566,435 TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 982,812 TNS IN THE LAST ESTIMATE – ANEC

 

Argentina’s agricultural exports break record ahead of tax hike

Argentina’s agricultural exports broke fresh records in June, data showed on Tuesday, as farmers in the key grains supplying nation ramped up shipments ahead of a tax hike that took effect on July 1.

Argentina exported a record 64.5 million metric tons of grains and their derivatives in the first six months of this year, according to data from the Rosario grains exchange.

Exports for the month of June also broke records for the largest amount ever shipped in a single month at 23.53 million tons – 36% of the total exported in the first half of 2025.

Meanwhile, Argentina’s CIARA-CEC grains processors and exporters’ chamber – which brings together some of the sector’s most important exporting companies – said exports brought in $3.7 billion in June, up 87% from a year earlier.

Export revenue, meanwhile, climbed 21% in June compared with a month earlier, the chamber said.

The government of President Javier Milei had extended a tax break on exports of one staple crop, wheat, but ruled out additional relief for other key grains shipments like soy and corn beyond the end of June.

From Tuesday, export taxes on soybeans alongside its oil and meal derivatives rose to 33% and 31% respectively, up from prior levels of 26% and 24.5% that had been held on a temporary basis through the first six months of 2025.

Taxes on corn exports likewise rose to 12% from 9.5%.

Argentina is the world’s top supplier of soybean oil and meal and the third-largest corn exporter.

The president of CIARA-CEC said last week that the higher taxes could drive a decrease in the supply from Argentine farmers, impacting export sales. Exporters pass on fees charged by the government to the prices they offer to local farmers.

 

Argentina grains trading seen cooling after tax hike takes effect

Grains trading is expected to cool off in Argentine markets on Tuesday as a tax hike on exports of corn, soybeans and soy derivatives comes into effect, after farmers doubled sales in June ahead of the expected policy change.

Export tax on soybeans alongside its oil and meal derivatives rose to 33% and 31% respectively, up from prior levels of 26% and 24.5% that had been held on a temporary basis through the first six months of 2025.

Taxes on corn exports likewise rose to 12% from 9.5%.

Argentina is the world’s top supplier of soybean oil and meal, and the third-largest exporter of corn.

“Producers anticipated, sold and now the markets are going to be calmer,” Lorena D’Angelo, an independent analyst working in Rosario, the home of Argentina’s largest grain exchange, told Reuters.

Argentina’s grains market takes on definitive pricing and trends in the local afternoon (1800 GMT) as it closely monitors and is influenced by the grain futures market in Chicago.

In June, Argentine farmers doubled their grains sales compared with a year earlier as they anticipated the tax hike. Exporters pass on the fees charged by the government to the prices they offer to local farmers.

 

Iranian firm offers to buy out minority shareholders at Russian Caspian port terminal

Nasim Bahr Kish, an Iranian firm that holds a controlling stake in Russia’s Astrakhan Port, has submitted an offer to acquire the remaining shares, including a 25% stake owned by the Russian state, the company’s records showed on Tuesday.

Astrakhan Port owns a sea terminal in the southern Russian city of Astrakhan.

The move underscores Tehran’s increasing involvement in Russia’s export infrastructure as the two countries deepen economic ties under Western sanctions. The news was first reported by Russian newspaper Kommersant.

The deal, worth approximately 437.5 million roubles ($5.6 million) would give the Iranian firm full control over one of the key Caspian Sea terminals, used for transshipping grain, metals, timber, and fertilizers.

In the 2023/2024 agricultural season, the terminal handled around 275,000 metric tons of grain, but volumes dropped to 139,500 tons in the current season, with no shipments in May.

The Caspian Sea is a traditional route for transporting Russian grain to Iran.

Grain shipments through the route sharply declined in the second half of 2025 due to a temporary export ban on barley and corn imposed by Russia, but analysts expect a rebound in the 2025/2026 agricultural season, partly due to a crop decline in Iran this year.

 

New Zealand Agency Sees Diminished Chance of La Niña This Year

Earth Sciences New Zealand says the chances of a La Niña weather system developing this year are diminishing, according to an update Wednesday in Wellington.

• Atmospheric patterns in the Pacific continued to be intermittently consistent with weak La Niña conditions but ocean temperatures shifted away from previous La Niña-like characteristics in June
• “A consensus of international guidance indicates about a 70% chance for the tropical Pacific to remain in an ENSO-neutral state over the outlook period” to September
• Over the next three months, New Zealand may be exposed to low pressure systems, leading to potentially significant rainfall and flooding events
• Says seasonal air temperatures are expected to be above average and while cold snaps and frost will occur, they are expected to be less frequent than usual
• NOTE: Earth Sciences NZ was formed July 1 from the merger of the National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research and GNS Science

 

 

 

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