Global Ag News For July 18.2025

TOP HEADLINES

China expects bumper grain harvest

China’s grain production is on solid footing this year, with nearly 60 percent of early-season rice already harvested and projections indicating a bumper crop, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said Thursday.

The acreage of autumn grain is expected to rise slightly this year, with crops generally in good condition, said the ministry, attributing the good crop conditions of autumn grain to the adoption of more advanced farming practices and favorable weather.

Autumn grain accounts for around 75 percent of China’s annual grain output, making it the key to achieving this year’s production target of around 700 million tonnes, said the ministry.

China achieved a bumper summer grain harvest this year despite severe droughts in some regions. The national output reached about 149.74 million tonnes, marking the second-highest yield on record after last year and providing a solid foundation for stable annual grain production.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 9 1/4 in SRW, up 11 1/2 in HRW, up 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 6 3/4; Soybeans up 14 3/4; Soymeal up $3.80; Soyoil up 0.56.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 2 1/4 in SRW, up 4 3/4 in HRW, down 16 in HRS; Corn is up 15 1/2; Soybeans up 34; Soymeal up $3.70; Soyoil up 3.06.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 4 1/2 in SRW, up 2 1/4 in HRW, down 23 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans up 14 1/4; Soymeal down $2.00; Soyoil up 3.96.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 1.6% in SRW, down 5.4% in HRW, up 0.3% in HRS; Corn is down 10.9%; Soybeans up 3.8%; Soymeal down 11.5%; Soyoil up 43.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans up 4 yuan; Soymeal up 32; Soyoil up 78; Palm oil up 132; Corn up 19 — Malaysian Palm is up 106.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 106 ringgit (+2.52%) at 4316.

There were changes in registrations (-330 Soybeans). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 651 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 1,876 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 17 were: SRW Wheat up 13,486 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,682, Corn down 4,597, Soybeans down 2,023, Soymeal down 4,531, Soyoil up 8,851.

 

Northern Plains: Another system will move through Thursday night and Friday and more are in the pipeline through next week, keeping the pattern busy with multiple rounds of thunderstorms that could bring heavy rain and severe weather. That may tend to miss some areas as well, but chances are widespread. Temperatures are cooler to seasonable going into next week. Temperatures may rise later next week as the ridge starts to expand northward into the region at the end of July.

Central/Southern Plains: A front is getting stuck in the region and will produce showers through the weekend, though the coverage will be waning with time and favoring Nebraska by the weekend. Temperatures have been seasonable, but will be rising this weekend into next week. That will lead to drier conditions across the south, but Nebraska may be close enough to get in on some of the busier pattern across the north. Drying conditions could become hazardous if they last too long.

Midwest: Very few spots in the region are doing poorly with soil moisture as corn and soybeans get deeper into pollination. There are some areas that need rain though, and northern Indiana is the current location to watch the closest. The region stays busy with systems and disturbances continuing showers and thunderstorms across the region through next week. Some of those will come with heavy rain and severe weather, too. Temperatures are milder through the weekend, but should increase next week with a burst of heat stressing out any areas that have not received much rainfall. Otherwise, good weather conditions continue in most areas through the end of July.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Isolated showers continue across the region through next week. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below-normal for the most part, but the continued showers may bring enough timely rainfall as more of the crops get into or through reproductive stages and concentrate on filling. However, a small disturbance moving through the Gulf of Mexico could bring some heavy rain into Louisiana Thursday and Friday, regardless if it is classified as tropical or not.

Canadian Prairies: While the weather pattern stays active with more systems moving through later this week, weekend, and next week, showers are forecast to stay scattered, leaving some areas too dry and significantly reducing production as more of the wheat and canola crops get into reproductive and filling stages. The driest areas continue to be in Manitoba.

 

The player sheet for 7/17 had funds: net sellers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,500 corn, sellers of 4,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 4,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley. An announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of barley on Wednesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued an international tender to purchase at least 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• CORN AND SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 60,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 60,000 tons of soymeal.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 801.5K Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 664K of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending July 10.

• Corn sales fell to 664k tons vs 2,151k in previous week
• Soybean sales rose to 802k tons vs 751k in previous week
• All wheat sales fell to 494k tons vs 577k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending July 10, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Mexico with 317k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Japan with 253k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Mexico with 84k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending July 10, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 7.7k tons of the 17.1k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

 

Argentine Corn, Wheat Crop Estimates July 17: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2024-25 corn production estimate maintained at 49m tons
• 2025-26 wheat planting advanced to 92.8% complete vs 91% in the previous week

 

IGC Cuts 2025-26 Global Grain Stockpile Outlook on Corn

Global grain stockpiles in the 2025-26 season are now seen at 582m tons, down from a June estimate of 586m tons, the International Grains Council said in a monthly report.

• Corn stockpiles estimate was lowered to 278m tons, from 282m tons
  • Consumption seen higher than previously forecast
• Wheat stockpiles outlook was raised slightly to 265m tons
• Soybean stockpiles estimate was also increased slightly to 83m tons

 

German Grain Harvest Seen Near-Average, But Stalled by Weather

Germany’s 2025 total grains harvest is estimated at 41.7m tons, up from last month’s forecast of 41.4m tons, agricultural cooperatives group DRV said in a report.

• That would be 7% higher than the 2024 crop, but still within the multiyear average
• Estimates include:
  • Wheat seen at 21.6m tons, little changed from a prior forecast
  • Barley at 10.4m tons, up from 10.1m tons
  • Corn seen little changed at 4.5m tons
• “Despite the sometimes extreme heat in the past four weeks, the bottom line is that we should get away with a black eye,”: DRV grain market expert Guido Seedler
• Still, some crops like corn have seen some “irreparable damage”
• In a separate forecast, the farming association Deutscher Bauernverband said the harvest pace is slowing due to rains in several regions of Germany
• Winter barley conditions and yields vary across regions: DBV

 

French Wheat Harvest Accelerates; Corn Conditions Worsen

Some 71% of France’s soft-wheat crop has been harvested as of July 14, up from 36% in the prior week and well ahead of the same time last year, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.

• Corn conditions declined after a stretch of hot and dry weather
• NOTE: A recent heat wave intensified soil dryness and weakened vegetation throughout the country, according to Meteo France

 

Canadian wheat, canola crops a ‘mixed bag,’ with rain critical

• Mixed crop conditions across Western Canada, from ‘terrible’ to ‘terrific’
• Durum wheat and lentils face lower yields due to drought

Canadian farmers are likely to produce average-size wheat and canola crops this autumn, but years of drought have made rain critical for the plants to fulfill their potential, farmers and analysts said this week at the Ag in Motion farm show.

In eastern Saskatchewan, Robert Andjelic, a major Canadian farmland investor, said he was seeing lush, dense crops of spring wheat and canola in perfect condition. In southwestern Saskatchewan, however, he described spring wheat dying under the pressure of extreme drought.

Across Western Canada, he saw a wide range of “terrible” to “terrific” crops, he said.

“It’s such a mixed bag,” he said while touring some of the more than 225,000 acres (91,000 hectares) he owns across the prairie provinces.

Canada is the world’s largest exporter of canola, durum wheat, and some pulse crops such as lentils, with China, the United States, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, and India among its largest buyers. Its spring wheat crop is vital to millers around the globe, and U.S. grocery shelf staples such as Cheerios cereal and Quaker oatmeal rely on Canadian oats.

Analysts and farmers interviewed by Reuters said they expect the country’s total crop output to be about the same as last year, when farmers also endured a wide range of conditions, but still produced one of Canada’s biggest crops ever.

While that probably means Canada’s canola and spring wheat production will be about the same as last year, when farmers produced average-sized harvests, the outlook is worse for durum wheat and lentils, which farmers grow in some of the areas hit by extreme dryness.

“They have been under these conditions too long,” crop analyst Bruce Burnett of MarketsFarm said about some durum and lentil crops in the southwestern Prairies, adding that some were being baled for livestock feed.

Farmers said cereal grains such as wheat and durum were developing far fewer kernels per plant because of drought in some areas, resulting in lower yields.

Burnett estimates Canadian durum yield will be less than last year’s 34 bushels per acre, which was an average yield.

Most farmers need at least one more significant rainfall for grain kernels to fill out, farmers and analysts said.

Burnett said canola crops were benefiting from cooler weather this July than last year, when scorching heat damaged millions of acres that were in the crucial flowering stage. Smoky air from forest fires was making the sunlight less direct and harsh, he said.

The oilseed is crushed mainly to produce vegetable oil and animal feed.

Statistics Canada is scheduled to issue its first crop production estimates of the year on August 28.

Farmer adviser Rob Saik, who drove across central Alberta and Saskatchewan to the farm show, said some parts of the Prairies were producing durum, lentils, and canola hammered by drought, but in most places, “we’re in pretty good shape.”

 

Indonesia’s B50 Biofuel Could Help Offset US Tariff Impact: CIMB

Indonesia’s potential implementation of a B50 biofuel mandate is “key to watch” as it’ll be supportive of palm oil prices next year, with the additional demand helping to offset any negative impact from higher US tariffs, according to CIMB Securities.

• NOTE: US reciprocal tariffs on Indonesia are at 19%, effective Aug. 1
• Increasing the mandatory biodiesel mix to 50%, known as the B50 program, could tighten Indonesia’s palm oil exports in 2026 and see domestic consumption rise by 3m tons, analysts Ivy Ng Lee Fang and Lim Yue Jia said in a Friday note
  • Indonesia will need to add new biodiesel plants to support this higher blend
• Rollout of B40 in Indonesia appears to be on track to meet its 2025 target; anticipated to boost the country’s domestic usage by 2m tons and reduce exportable surplus
  • “We are also encouraged by the availability of funding for biodiesel subsidies”: analysts

 

Indonesia Seeks Levy Exemptions on CPO, Nickel Exports to US

Govt is proposing to the US to exempt its exports of strategic commodities from tariffs, including crude palm oil, nickel, rubber, and cocoa, according to an Indonesian ministry official.

• Govt is still ironing out details of its recent trade deal with the US, Susiwijono Moegiarso, secretary of the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, tells reporters on Friday
• The list of commodities is not final and is still subject to change, Moegiarso says
• “For some commodities, especially natural resources which are highly needed by the US and have been reliably sourced from Indonesia, we are confident that we will be able to negotiate a 0% rate,” Moegiarso says
• Indonesia has agreed to set a 0% tariff on 99% of US products, Moegiarso says
  • Some exceptions on certain items will be in place, such as on alcoholic beverages and pork
  • Imports from the US currently consist of 11,552 HS codes

 

Farms May Get Time, Leeway From MAHA for Chemicals Use Changes

US farmers may get time to adjust practices, particularly critical in the case of glyphosate use, as members of the MAHA Commission increasingly show sensitivity to their poor profitability and the threats of an abrupt change. Row crop farmers are slogging through their third year of losses on major crops. Both specifics of any change, and years to adapt, will be critical to cushioning their poor economics.

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. emphasized difficult farm economics, and a need to “transition without mandates, without coercion” at a recent roundtable, which included Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, according to a summary by the University of Illinois’ Farm Policy News. A new MAHA report coming in August will not include new rule recommendations on pesticide use, according to an article by Politico.

 

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending July 15: USDA

The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending July 15, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Drought conditions in corn-growing areas fell to 9% from 12% in the previous week
• Drought in soybean areas 7% vs 9%

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 554k tons in the week ending July 12 from 781k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 55% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 60% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $15.96 per short ton, an increase of $2.71 from the previous week

 

 

 

 

 

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