Global Ag News For July 16.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Brazilian meatpackers rethink beef exports to US after tariffs, industry lobby says

Brazilian meatpackers are weighing whether to make new shipments of beef products to the United States after President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazil last week, Roberto Perosa, president of Brazilian beef lobby ABIEC, said.

The United States is Brazil’s second most important beef products market after China, according to trade data.

“New shipments are under analysis by the private sector due to the increase in tariffs,” Perosa said on Tuesday.

The announcement of the tariffs affected Brazil’s cattle market last week and on Monday, with companies sharply reducing purchases of animals because of the uncertainty related to the tariff announcement, said Alcides Torres, a beef market consultant with Scot Consultoria.

“The market turned cold,” Torres said.

Brazil, the world’s largest beef exporter, accounts for some 23% of U.S. beef imports, according to calculations by Genial Investimentos.

Since Trump’s announcement, meatpackers have been scrambling to reschedule and redirect shipments and production, Perosa said last week, noting that some companies had already decided to temporarily halt production destined for the United States.

Beefpacker Minerva BEEF3.SA, one of the hardest hit in Brazil, derives around 5% of its net revenue from beef sales to the U.S., the company said after the announcement of the new U.S. tariff, effective August 1.

Following the release of Minerva’s first-quarter results in May, Genial said that the company had “slaughtered a considerable volume of cattle and transferred meat in advance to facilities in the U.S. to mitigate risks from additional tariffs.”

Minerva declined to comment.

A persistent shortage of cattle in the U.S. increased the country’s demand for Brazilian beef imports, trade data shows. According to analysts, the new tariff could make beef more expensive for U.S. consumers.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1/2 in SRW, down 3/4 in HRW, up 3 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/4; Soybeans up 7 1/2; Soymeal up $1.70; Soyoil up 0.23.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 7 1/2 in SRW, down 1 1/4 in HRW, down 8 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 11 3/4; Soybeans up 2; Soymeal down $2.40; Soyoil up 0.98.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 3/4 in SRW, down 3 3/4 in HRW, down 15 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 17 3/4; Soymeal down $8.10; Soyoil up 1.88.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.5% in SRW, down 6.5% in HRW, up 1.6% in HRS; Corn is down 11.6%; Soybeans up 0.3%; Soymeal down 13.3%; Soyoil up 37.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans up 23 yuan; Soymeal down 8; Soyoil up 20; Palm oil down 34; Corn down 7 — Malaysian Palm is up 36.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 36 ringgit (+0.87%) at 4182.

There were changes in registrations (-49 Corn). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 29 Corn; 1,265 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 1,876 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 15 were: SRW Wheat up 6,398 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,760, Corn down 21,565, Soybeans up 5,374, Soymeal up 6,723, Soyoil up 4,636.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 15 JULY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Cool and wet across the Plains and Midwest, while warm and dry will prevail in the rest of the U.S over this week
• SOUTH AMERICA: Argentina’s Pampas to stay wet; cool temperatures in South, and rest of Brazil in dry and warm during this week
• EUROPE: Central and Eastern Europe, including the UK, stay wet, while Northeastern Europe and Scandinavia remain warm and dry over this week
• ASIA: Cool in South and Southeast Asia, mixed temperatures in East Asia; below- normal rainfall across Asia, except India, over this week

 

WET SPELLS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S., NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST MAY BENEFIT MAJOR CROPS

What to Watch:

• Mixed temperatures across the U.S.
• Wet spells in the West, Midwest & Northern Plains

  

Northern Plains: A system is moving through in a couple of pieces through Wednesday, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. Though some severe weather may occur, some beneficial heavy rainfall will also occur. Another system will move through late this week and more are in the pipeline for next week, keeping the pattern busy. Temperatures will be on a rollercoaster, with a big burst of colder air coming over the next couple of days, but then rising again toward the weekend, only to waffle around with systems next week. The active weather pattern will bring scattered showers though, missing some areas that need some heavier rain, but the pattern is overall favorable for developing crops.

Central/Southern Plains: Recent rainfall has been favorable for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans for most of the region. Showers will continue across the southeast for most of the week, while the rest of the region will see scattered showers and thunderstorms with a front passing through over the next couple of days. Temperatures continue to be seasonable and non-stressful. However, much warmer and drier conditions may start to develop next week.

Midwest: Very few spots in the region are doing poorly with soil moisture as corn and soybeans get more into pollination. The region stays busy with systems and disturbances continuing showers and thunderstorms across the region through this week and probably next week as well, as conditions stay overall favorable.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Isolated showers continue across the region for the next week. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below-normal for the most part, but the continued showers may bring enough timely rainfall as more of the crops get into or through reproductive stages. The region will also watch the Gulf of Mexico this week, as a small disturbance there could become tropical and bring showers into the region in a few days. That would bring heavier rainfall to the region should it develop.

Canadian Prairies: A system moving through brought some good rainfall to much of Alberta and western Saskatchewan on Monday, with showers near the U.S. border on Tuesday. While the weather pattern stays active with more systems moving through later this week and next week, showers are forecast to stay scattered, leaving some areas too dry and significantly reducing production as more of the wheat and canola crops get into reproductive and filling stages. The driest areas continue to be in Manitoba.

 

The player sheet for 7/15 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 9,000 corn, sellers of 1,500 soybeans, sellers of 3,500 soymeal, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC bought about 1 million metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender.
• WHEAT TENDER PASSED: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on Tuesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: A group of importers in Thailand has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase up to 240,000 tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued an international tender to purchase at least 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• CORN AND SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 60,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 60,000 tons of soymeal
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tons of animal feed barley.
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 89,650 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

NOPA June US soybean crush tops expectations at 185.709 million bushels

The U.S. soybean crush topped an average of trade expectations in June and reached the highest ever level for the sixth month of the year, while soyoil stocks dropped to a five-month low, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Tuesday.

NOPA members, which account for at least 95% of soybeans crushed in the United States, processed 185.709 million bushels of the oilseed last month, down 3.7% from the 192.829 million bushels crushed in May but up 5.8% from a crush of 175.599 million bushels in June 2024, the previous record for the month.

The crush was expected to fall to 185.195 million bushels, according to the average of estimates from eight analysts surveyed by Reuters. Estimates ranged from 182.000 million to 188.000 million bushels, with a median of 185.175 million bushels.

The June crush topped expectations despite a second straight monthly decline in the daily processing pace, which slipped to 6.190 million bushels last month. That was down from 6.220 million bushels a day in May and the slowest daily crush rate since September, according to NOPA data.

Recent processing plant expansions and new plant openings amid soaring demand for soyoil have increased U.S. crush capacity to record levels. But that capacity has been underutilized at times this summer as a glut of soymeal discouraged plants from running at full tilt, analysts said.

Soyoil stocks among NOPA members as of June 30 fell to 1.366 billion pounds, down 0.5% from stocks of 1.373 billion pounds at the end of May and down 15.8% from the 1.622 billion pounds in stocks a year earlier.

Stocks, on average, were expected to rise slightly to 1.374 billion pounds, according to estimates from six analysts. Estimates ranged from 1.275 billion to 1.525 billion pounds, with a median of 1.342 billion pounds.

 

Brazil soy exports seen reaching 12.19 million tns in July – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 12.19 MILLION TNS IN JULY VERSUS 11.93 MILLION TNS ESTIMATED IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.25 MILLION TNS IN JULY VERSUS 2.19 MILLION TNS ESTIMATED IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 4.6 MILLION TNS IN JULY VERSUS 4.34 MILLION TNS ESTIMATED IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

EU 2025/26 soybean imports 340,597 T by July 13, rapeseed 105,430 T

European Union soybean imports so far in the 2025/26 season that started on July 1 reached 340,597 metric tons by July 13, compared with 495,953 tons over the same period a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday.

EU rapeseed imports in the same period totalled 105,430 tons, against 136,738 a year earlier.

 

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Down 78% Y/Y at the Start of Season

The EU’s soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 totaled around 246k tons as of July 13, compared with 1.1m tons over the same period a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations included Algeria at 63k tons, Cameroon at 52k tons and Lebanon at 30k tons
• Barley exports were around 361k tons, down 26% y/y
• Corn imports totaled nearly 244k tons, down 81% y/y
• NOTE: Click here for figures on oilseed trade
• NOTE: Export data for France are incomplete from the beginning of 2024; figures for Bulgaria and Ireland are incomplete since the start of the 2023-24 season

 

Russian Wheat Harvest Behind Pace

Russia’s harvest of wheat is well behind the pace seen last year, SovEcon says in a note. Through July 11, Russia has harvested 11 million metric tons of wheat — which is down 56% compared to 2024’s harvest of 24.8 million tons. Yields of the harvest are lower so far, the firm says. “Yields are significantly lower than last year because harvesting is currently most active in drought-hit regions of the South-Rostov and Krasnodar,” SovEcon says. Russia is the largest exporter of wheat in the world. CBOT wheat futures are up 0.2%, while corn is up 1.1% and soybeans fall 0.1%.

 

Egypt’s military-linked agency to oversee new exchange for commodity imports and exports

• Future of Egypt agency to have majority stake in new exchange
• Exchange aimed at securing consistent supplies, steady prices
• Wheat imports down sharply after shift to new procurement system

Egypt plans to launch a revamped national commodity exchange to oversee imports and exports of essential agricultural goods, the presidency said on Tuesday, as it strives to secure consistent supplies and keep prices steady.

The exchange, in which the military-linked Future of Egypt for Sustainable Development has a majority stake, will act as a “safety valve” for local markets, and balance the interests of producers and consumers, the presidency said in a statement.

The statement followed a meeting between President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, the agriculture and supply ministers and Future of Egypt.

The procedures for registering private exporters and importers have begun, and a draft law regulating the exchange’s operations is in development, the statement said. Two traders told Reuters they had yet to be contacted for registration.

While the statement did not say which goods would be traded through the exchange, a preliminary announcement in March said it would oversee crops, processed foods, animal feed, fertilizers, pesticides, and veterinary medicines.

The move comes amid a sharp decline in Egypt’s wheat imports following a major shake-up of its procurement system.

According to trade data reviewed by Reuters, wheat imports in the first half of 2025 fell by more than 27% year-on-year to around 5.2 million metric tons, with the government’s share of those imports plunging more than 57% to 1.5 million tons.

Egypt is one of the world’s largest wheat importers, relying on foreign supplies for both its subsidized bread program and private milling.

The presidency said on Tuesday that the government had signed contracts to import 3.4 million tons of wheat, 192,000 tons of crude vegetable oils, 4,000 tons of frozen poultry, and 6,000 tons of frozen meat, though it did not specify the delivery or purchase timeline.

Future of Egypt took over commodities procurement from the General Authority for Supply Commodities in late 2024 as the military tightened its grip on the economy, but has had a rocky start.

Traders told Reuters earlier this year that the agency initially lacked key requirements for doing business and relied heavily on intermediaries, despite occasional direct deals with international suppliers.

Future of Egypt has told Reuters that it is working on building deferred purchasing positions to maintain a constant flow of key commodities.

The Supply Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Egypt has strategic reserves of wheat and other commodities sufficient for more than six months, Prime Minister Madbouly said in June.

 

Supportive satellite imagery raises Kazakhstan wheat production

2025/26 KAZAKHSTAN WHEAT PRODUCTION: 16.6 [15.7-17.4] MILLION TONS, UP 3.2% FROM LAST UPDATE

Recent moderate weather and locally elevated yields, increase 2025/26 Kazakhstan wheat production to 16.6 [15.7-17.4] million tons. Over the past two weeks, Kazakhstan experienced moderate temperatures and below average precipitation across the country. Vegetation density index (NDVI) values in the Akmola, North Kazakhstan, and Kostanay Oblasts reached above the long-term median, confirming good crop conditions and raising national-level yield to 1.30 t/ha.

Looking ahead, moderate temperatures and dry weather conditions are expected across Kazakhstan. We will periodically update yield estimates based on observed and forecasted weather, satellite imagery, and soil moisture data.

 

Moderate weather facilitates rapid harvest of Ukrainian wheat

2025/26 UKRAINE WHEAT PRODUCTION: 20.7 [19.7-21.7] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Ukrainian wheat production is kept unchanged at 20.7 [19.7-21.7] million tons (mmt), Production for Ukraine excluding Crimea and occupied oblasts (Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Kherson) is placed at 19.7 million tons. According to the latest report of Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, 435 thousand hectares (1.24 million tons) of wheat were already threshed by Ukrainian farmers, with Odessa, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts leading the fieldwork.

Over the past two weeks, Ukraine experienced moderate temperatures and dry weather conditions across the country. According to LSEG’s latest weather forecast, moderate temperatures and light precipitation should be in store for the next two weeks, supporting ongoing harvest operations. However, lack of sufficient precipitation may deplete soil moisture and pose risks to corn development.

 

Persistent warm and dry conditions reduce 2025/26 Ukraine corn production

2025/26 UKRAINE CORN PRODUCTION: 27.2 [25.9-28.6] MILLION TONS, DOWN 1.8% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Ukraine corn production is decreased to 27.2 [25.9-28.6] million tons, amid warm and dry weather conditions. Over the past two weeks, Ukraine has experienced dry weather conditions with moderate temperatures. Soil moisture levels in key corn-producing Oblasts like Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Sumy, Poltava, and Khmelnytskyi, are falling, threatening good yield prospects. Our latest satellite imagery analysis indicates that crops are in worse than average condition – vegetation densities (NDVI) values are below the long-term median across the country, decreasing yield prospects to 6.65 t/ha.

Moving forward, the latest weather forecasts indicate moderate to cool temperatures and sporadic wet spells for the next two weeks. Overall, prolonged dry weather is raising concerns for soil moisture reserves and corn development.

 

 

 

 

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