Global Ag News For July 15.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Morocco to Step Up US Hard Wheat Imports on Competitive Prices

Morocco will take delivery this month of a first shipment of 100,000 tons that was purchased from Louisiana, the head of the Millers’ National Confederation, Abdelkader Alaoui, says in a telephone interview.

• Morocco will step up imports of US hard wheat “for purely economic and financial considerations”
  • He cited a $50 per ton net cost gap with rival origins, a lower exchange rate of the dollar versus the local currency and a duty-free regime for grain imports
  • “We’ve stayed away from the US market for very long because of the high prices,” Alaoui said. “They have now fallen substantially”
  • US hard wheat is “high in protein and is low in humidity so it’s perfect for cutting soft wheat we buy from other places”
• Group sees US hard wheat accounting for 5%-6% of Morocco’s grain imports for this season, or 500,000 to 600,000 tons

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 1/2 in SRW, down 1 1/2 in HRW, up 2 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/4; Soybeans down 2 3/4; Soymeal down $0.30; Soyoil down 0.18.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 4 1/4 in SRW, down 3/4 in HRW, down 9 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 5 1/2; Soybeans down 1/4; Soymeal down $1.80; Soyoil up 0.30.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 3/4 in SRW, down 5 1/4 in HRW, down 14 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 10 3/4; Soybeans down 22 3/4; Soymeal down $7.90; Soyoil up 1.07.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 1.9% in SRW, down 6.4% in HRW, up 1.4% in HRS; Corn is down 12.8%; Soybeans up 0.3%; Soymeal down 12.9%; Soyoil up 36.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans up 27 yuan; Soymeal up 9; Soyoil up 24; Palm oil up 52; Corn up 8 — Malaysian Palm is down 86.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 86 ringgit (-2.03%) at 4144.

There were changes in registrations (-44 Soybeans). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 78 Corn; 1,265 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 1,876 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 14 were: SRW Wheat up 3,387 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,192, Corn up 17,351, Soybeans up 5,420, Soymeal up 7,246, Soyoil down 691.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 14 JULY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Cool and wet across the Plains and Midwest, and warm and dry across the rest the U.S. over this week
• SOUTH AMERICA: Argentina’s Pampas to stay wet; mixed temperatures and dry weather ahead for Southern Brazil
• EUROPE: Western Europe and Scandinavia stay warm and dry, while Eastren Europe and the UK remain cool and wet over this week
• ASIA: Cool in South and Southeast Asia, warm in the South-Central China; mixed rainfall across India and China

WARM AND DRY WEATHER IN BRAZIL, SHORT-TERM WET WEATHER IN ARGENTINA

What to Watch:

• Heavy rainfall to persist across the Pampas region in Argentina, but should be short-lived
• Well below normal rainfall to persist in Southern Brazil

  

Northern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers north Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday. 

Midwest West:  Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.

Midwest East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, near normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for 7/14 had funds: net sellers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 7,500 corn, sellers of 1,500 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 1,500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 89,650 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States. 

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase up to 240,000 tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in an international tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase and import 50,000 metric tons of wheat was assessed at $268.90 a metric ton CIF liner out
• BARLEY TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued an international tender to purchase at least 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• CORN AND SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 60,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 60,000 tons of soymeal.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Conditions 74% G/E, Soybeans 70%

Highlights from the report:

• Corn 74% G/E vs 74% last week, and 68% a year ago
• Soybeans 70% G/E vs 66% last week, and 68% a year ago
• Spring wheat 54% G/E vs 50% last week, and 77% a year ago
• Winter wheat harvest 63% vs 53% last week
• Cotton 54% G/E vs 52% last week, and 45% a year ago

 

US Inspected 1.287m Tons of Corn for Export, 147k of Soybeans

In week ending July 10, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 147k tons vs 400k the previous wk, 175k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,287k tons vs 1,564k the previous wk, 1,100k a yr ago
• Wheat: 440k tons vs 522k the previous wk, 622k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: July 10

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending July 10 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Mexico-bound shipments made up 33k tons of the 147k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for soybeans, corn and wheat inspections

 

Russia’s IKAR consultancy cuts 2025 wheat crop, export forecast due to drought in southern Russia

Russia’s IKAR consultancy cut its 2025 wheat production forecast to 84.0 million metric tons from 84.5 million tons previously, and its wheat export forecast to 42 million tons in the new marketing season from 42.5 million previously.

“The revision is mostly associated with lower yields in the south of Russia,” IKAR said in a note. Several southern wheat-producing regions are suffering from drought.

Overall grain production is seen at 130.3 million tons, down from 131.8 million tons previously. Russia’s official grain crop forecast for 2025 is 135 million tons, including crops from Russian-controlled regions of Ukraine.

Rostov, Russia’s top wheat producing region in 2024, may see the lowest wheat harvest since 2015 due to severe drought, with the local governor predicting that this year’s crop will be 20% lower than last year’s 10.1 million tons.

 

France forecasts soft wheat crop at 32.6 mln T, up 27%

France’s farm ministry on Tuesday forecast the country’s 2025 soft wheat production at 32.6 million metric tons, up 27% compared with last year’s rain-hit harvest and 2.4% above the average of the past five years.

For barley, the ministry projected 2025 output, including both winter and spring crop, at 11.8 million tons, up 19.1% from 2024 and 6.2% from the 5-year average.

For rapeseed, it forecast this year’s crop at 4.2 million tons, up 8.2% compared with last year.

It also increased its estimate of the area sown with maize for the 2025 harvest to 1.59 million hectares from 1.48 million estimated in June.

 

France’s Wheat Output Seen Rising 27% to 32.6m Tons in 2025

France’s soft-wheat harvest is expected to total 32.6 million tons this year, up 27% from a historically low 2024 harvest, the country’s agriculture ministry said in a report Tuesday.

• That’s due to a 19% increase in yields
• The 2025 estimated harvest is 2.4% above the five-year average
• Winter-barley harvest is seen at 8.36m tons, up from last month’s estimate of 7.8m tons
  • That’s up 19.5% from 2024 and 4.8% above the five-year average
• Durum-wheat production is estimated to rise 3.5% to 1.27m tons, though still 6.7% below the five-year average
• Winter-rapeseed harvest is steady from last month’s estimate at 4.2m tons

PLANTINGS FOR 2025—26 SEASON:

• Corn planting outlook at 1.59m hectares, up from last month’s estimate of 1.48m hectares
• Beetroot area at 398k hectares, down 3.4% from 2024 and 1.4% below the five-year average

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Production may be lower, but prices are moving down

While the global crop continues to move at a good pace, with expectations of a new record in 2025/26, the output in Brazil is likely to shrink, which, in turn, will require an increase of imports between August 2025 and July 2026. Even in this scenario, quotations are moving down in Brazil, influenced by decreases abroad and of dollar values.

According to a report from Conab released on July 10, the national output is estimated at 7.81 million tons, 4.6% smaller than the report released in June and downing 0.9% against the season before (7.89 million tons). The area may drop 16.5%, to 2.55 million hectares, but the productivity is expected to grow 18.7% compared to the past crop, at 3.06 tons per hectare.

Conab also says that 79.5% of the area had been planted up to July 5.

 

Argentina raises biofuel prices for domestic market

The Argentine government raised the prices of biofuels for mandatory local blending on Monday, according to two resolutions published in its official gazette.

The Energy Secretariat, which reports to the Ministry of Economy, set the price of sugarcane-based bioethanol at 800.043 pesos per liter (about $0.63), from the previous 792.122 pesos per liter.

The price of corn-based bioethanol rose to 733.26 pesos per liter from 726 pesos before the resolution was announced.

The price of biodiesel for its mandatory blending with diesel was set at 1,302,411 pesos per metric ton, up from the previous 1,276,874 pesos.

The new prices will apply to “transactions carried out during the month of July 2025 and until the publication of a new price to replace them,” and will take effect from the date of their publication in the official gazette, the Energy Secretariat said in a statement.

Libertarian President Javier Milei’s government last month raised the prices of sugarcane-based and corn-based bioethanol.

 

China’s Q2 pork production edges up, but demand stays soft

China’s pork output rose slightly in the second quarter, supported by higher slaughter weights and improved farming efficiency, though weak demand continued to weigh on the market.

Pork production for the April-June period rose 1.4% from a year earlier to 14.18 million metric tons, according to a Reuters calculation based on data released on Tuesday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

“The rise in pork production in Q2 was primarily driven by higher average slaughter weights and improved farming efficiency,” said Pan Chenjun, a senior animal protein analyst at Rabobank in Hong Kong.

Despite a slight increase, demand remains subdued amid a slowing economy, Pan said.

China’s sow herd stood at 40.42 million heads at the end of May, up 1.2% from a year earlier, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.

Cash hog prices in the world’s largest pork-producing nation have declined to below 15 yuan ($2.09) per kilogram this week, compared with around 19 yuan at the same time last year, according to data from consultancy MySteel.

China has been grappling with persistent weak demand and a supply glut that have eroded producer margins.

In response, authorities have intensified efforts to stabilise the market, including cracking down on secondary fattening, which could further worsen price declines in an already oversupplied market.

The second quarter is typically the seasonally weakest period for pork production, following a surge in slaughter activity ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays in January and February.

A total of 366.19 million hogs were slaughtered in the first half of 2025, up 0.6% from a year earlier, according to NBS data.

China’s pig herd rose to 424.47 million heads at the end of the second quarter, up from 417.31 million in the first quarter, the data showed.

 

 

 

 

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