Global Ag News For July 1.2025

TOP HEADLINES

USDA announces phased reopening of Mexican cattle imports after screwworm closure

• Phased reopening to start July 7 with Douglas, Arizona as lowest risk entry point
• Ports in New Mexico and Texas to reopen in coming weeks, USDA evaluates conditions

The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced on Monday a phased reopening of cattle, bison and equine imports from Mexico following a prolonged closure over the damaging pest New World screwworm.

Ports will reopen in phases as early as July 7, beginning with Douglas, Arizona, which the USDA said is the lowest risk entry point due to its location and the “long history of effective collaboration” between officials in Sonora and USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.

The southern U.S. border was closed to imports of the animals on May 11 after screwworm, a species of fly that has been eradicated in the U.S. for decades, had been moving northward in Mexico. Additional ports in New Mexico and Texas may be reopened in coming weeks.

The pest can infest livestock and wildlife and carry maggots that burrow into the skin of living animals, causing serious and often fatal damage.

As part of the country’s effort to fight screwworm encroachment, the USDA announced plans on June 18 to open a sterile fly dispersal facility in Texas, and invested $21 million in updating a plant in Mexico to produce sterile flies.

“We have made good progress with our counterparts in Mexico to increase vital pest surveillance efforts and have boosted sterile fly dispersal efforts,” USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said in a release.

“We are continuing our posture of increased vigilance and will not rest until we are sure this devastating pest will not harm American ranchers,” she said.

The port in Columbus, New Mexico, may reopen on July 14, followed by Santa Teresa, New Mexico, on July 21, Del Rio, Texas, on August 18 and Laredo, Texas, on September 15, the USDA said. The agency added that it will evaluate conditions after each reopening to ensure that the enhanced control measures are working.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/2 in SRW, down 1 in HRW, down 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6; Soybeans down 7 1/2; Soymeal down $2.20; Soyoil down 0.01.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 1/2 in SRW, down 7 1/4 in HRW, down 7 in HRS; Corn is down 7 1/4; Soybeans down 4 1/2; Soymeal down $1.10; Soyoil up 0.13.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 4.2% in SRW, down 9.3% in HRW, up 0.4% in HRS; Corn is down 9.1%; Soybeans up 1.8%; Soymeal down 11.8%; Soyoil up 31.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans down 18 yuan; Soymeal up 3; Soyoil down 6; Palm oil up 2; Corn up 5 — Malaysian Palm is down 13.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 13 ringgit (-0.33%) at 3973.

There were changes in registrations (473 Soybeans). Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 915 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 1,384 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 30 were: SRW Wheat up 2,070 contracts, HRW Wheat up 4,126, Corn down 8,023, Soybeans up 11,305, Soymeal up 2,150, Soyoil up 4,315.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 30 JUNE 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Heat to persist across the Midwest U.S. during much of the next 10 days, though short-term model guidance is calling for cooler anomalies in the 11-15 day period
• SOUTH AMERICA: Sharp rainfall deficits up to 50 mm below normal are expected in Southern Brazil during the next 10 days
• BLACK SEA: Dry conditions are expected to persist across Ukraine and Southern Russia during the next 10 days, while wetter weather prevails further north/east
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Well below normal precipitation is expected in parts of Indonesia and Malaysia during the next 10 days
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is expected to remain in its current positive phase event during the next two week

 

Northern Plains: Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near normal Saturday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday, mostly south. Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Midwest West: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday.

Midwest East: Isolated to scattered showers far south Tuesday. Isolated showers north Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.

DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL IN MUCH OF SOUTH AMERICA THIS WEEK

What to Watch:

• Shifting temperatures in Argentina
• Dry conditions in Southern Brazil after a period of heavy precipitation

 

The player sheet for 6/30 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and buyers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN CAKE AND MEAL SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 204,000 metric tons of U.S. soybean cake and meal to unknown destinations for shipment in the 2025/26 marketing year.
• SOYBEAN MEAL PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 120,000 metric tons of soymeal expected to be sourced optionally from the United States, South America or China, in a tender on Monday
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins.
• SOYMEAL TENDER: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 60,000 metric tons of soymeal sourced optionally from South America, the United States or China.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued a new international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.37m Tons of Corn for Export, 225k of Soybeans

In week ending June 26, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Wheat: 435k tons vs 255k the previous wk, 336k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 225k tons vs 202k the previous wk, 320k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,370k tons vs 1,504k the previous wk, 831k a yr ago

 

 

CROP SURVEY: US May Soybean Processing Before USDA’s Report

The following is from a Bloomberg survey of six anlaysts.

• Soybean crush seen at 204.9m bu in May, a 6.9% rise from a year ago
• Crude and once-refined soybean-oil reserves at end of May seen at 1.87b lbs, down from 2.188b
• Corn used in ethanol production seen down 1.8% y/y to 447.4m bu

 

Brazil C-S Winter Corn Harvest at 18% as of June 26: Agrural

Compares with 13% a week earlier and 49% a year before, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• Harvest “had another week of setbacks in the Center-South of Brazil, with frost and rain making it difficult for machines to advance and raising doubts about crop productivity and grain quality in some areas of the region”, AgRural says
• “Despite being behind schedule, Mato Grosso is leading the pace among the states, followed at a distance by Paraná”

 

Argus Cuts Ukraine 2025-26 Wheat Crop Forecast to 21.9m Tons

Argus Media now sees Ukraine’s 2025-26 wheat production totaling 21.9m tons after a virtual crop tour in June, it said in a report.

• That’s down from an earlier estimate of 23.7m tons and 2.5% lower than in the 2024-25 season
• The combined winter- and spring-wheat area is seen at 4.98m hectares
• Wheat yields estimated at 4.39 tons/hectare, below the year-earlier level but above the five-year average of 4.31 tons/hectare
• Rains in May and early June eased earlier dryness in eastern, central and southern Ukraine and allowed crops to recover
• Rapeseed crops may be harvested late due to delayed sowing

 

Ukraine Ends Grain Exports Season With 21% Decline Y/y

Ukraine ended its grain export season, which started in July 2024, with total volumes of 40.6 million tons, according to data from the Agrarian Ministry.

• The total is nearly 21% less than last year’s figure
• The number includes:
  • 15.7m tons of wheat, down 15% y/y
  • 2.3m tons of barley, down 8.5% y/y
  • almost 22m tons of corn, down 25.6% y/y
• NOTE: Ukraine ended its spring planting campaign in early June with the same number of sowing areas compared to last year — 5.6 million hectares, according to the ministry’s data
• NOTE: Last week, the Agrarian Ministry said Ukrainian farmers have already started harvesting, gathering 188,000 tons of spring grain and legumes. That’s around one-fourth the amount harvested during the same period last year

 

Indonesia says exports 8.3 mln tons of crude, refined palm oil in January to May

Indonesia exported 8.3 million metric tons of crude and refined palm oil from January to May, the statistics bureau said on Tuesday.

 

US Plans to Boost Soy Exports to Italy and Form New Task Force

Italy will increase its imports of US soybeans as part of a new effort to rebalance trade between the two countries, US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told reporters Monday after meeting with her Italian counterpart.

The US and Italy are forming a new task force that will promote agricultural trade between the two countries, Rollins and Italian Agricultural Minister Francesco Lollobrigida said after a meeting in Washington. Italy has already started boosting its purchases of US soybeans, according to Rollins.

“It isn’t that they’re necessarily going to buy more overall — they’re just going to shift their buying back to America,” Rollins said. Italy’s soybean suppliers also include Brazil, Canada and Ukraine, according to World Bank data.

While Italy is not a major soybean importer, it exemplifies how the US is engaging smaller markets as part of its efforts to diversify away from China. US growers have shifted away from soybeans in part due to US President Donald Trump’s trade policies, which have caused the Asian nation to pull back on imports of most American agricultural products.

The US and European Union officials are still negotiating on a trade deal ahead of a July 9 deadline, after which tariffs on nearly all of the bloc’s exports to the US jump to 50%. Bloomberg reported on Monday that the EU is willing to accept a trade agreement with the US that includes a 10% universal tariff on many EU exports, citing people familiar with the matter.

“Based on everything we’ve seen, I think we’re moving toward a deal with the EU,” Rollins said Monday.

 

Indian Farmers Boost Sowing of Rice and Oilseeds as of June 27

The area allocated to monsoon-sown rice crops has surged 47% from a year earlier to 3.5 million hectares (8.7 million acres) as of Friday, according to India’s agriculture ministry.

Farmers have planted oilseeds on 4.9 million hectares of land, climbing 20% from a year earlier, the ministry said in a statement late Monday. Pulses planting has increased to 2.1 million hectares, up 37% from a year earlier, it said.

Monsoon rains were 9% above normal in June, and are predicted to exceed 106% of the long-term average in July, according to the India Meteorological Department. Sowing normally begins in late May, while harvesting typically starts in late September.

 

EU Seals New Trade Deal With Ukraine as Tariff-Free Regime Ends

European Union reached a new trade arrangement with Ukraine to replace the special tariff-free regime that was put in place in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

The agreement attempts to strike a balance between supporting Kyiv’s trade with the EU while it also “fully takes into account the sensitivity of certain agricultural sectors, raised by EU member states and farmers,” the European Commission said in a statement on Monday.

The EU temporarily removed all tariffs and quotas on agricultural products from Ukraine after Russia’s invasion more than three years ago sent the economy reeling. But the almost unfettered influx of grains and other produce sparked farmer protests in countries such as Poland and prompted some governments to introduce unilateral curbs.

Under the new arrangement, Ukraine’s access to the EU markets for its agricultural products will vary. It foresees only modest increases in quotas for the most sensitive produce, including sugar, poultry, eggs, wheat, maize, and honey compared to the original agreement from before the war.

Full liberalization has been agreed for “certain non-sensitive products,” while the remainder will face adjustments designed to benefit both sides, according to the statement.

The parties agreed to work on ironing out technical elements of the accord, which is still subject to legal revision and other formalities before being adopted.

The new agreement “represents the best possible outcome under difficult geopolitical conditions,” Maros Sefcovic, the bloc’s trade chief, said at a Monday briefing, calling the deal “balanced, fair and realistic.”

 

Malaysia June Palm Oil Exports +4.66% M/m: Intertek

Following is a summary of Malaysia’s June palm oil exports according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Total exports for June 2025: 1.382m tons
• Crude palm oil exports: 315,855 tons, 22.8% of total
• EU led all destinations for total exports: 288,045 tons

 

Indonesia sets July crude palm oil reference price at $877.89/metric ton, regulation shows

Indonesia increased its crude palm oil (CPO) reference price to $877.89 per metric ton for July, a trade ministry regulation showed on Monday.

That marks an increase from $856.38 per metric ton in June.

The new price will not change the export tax for July, which will be $52 per ton, unchanged from June.

Indonesia also imposes a 10% levy for CPO exports and a levy for more refined palm oil products of between 4.75% and 9.5% of the reference price on top of the export tax.

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Rains and frosts concern players

Heavy rainfall was registered in Southern Brazil last week, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, along with a cold wave, which resulted in frosts in some areas in the Central-South. On one hand, the cold weather favors the development of crops, but heavy rains in RS affected crop activities, causing losses in some areas. Therefore, producers are concerned with this scenario.

According to data from Emater/RS released on June 26, rains have delayed the planting in Rio Grande do Sul, which progressed only 2% in one week, reaching 39% of the total.

In Paraná, data from Seab/Deral released last week indicate that 91% of the area had been planted and that most crops that are developing may be favored by the cold weather; however, this same climate scenario can affect areas that were planted early and are currently producing flowers and/or are at the grain-filling stage.

As for Brazil, Conab says that 56.6% of the area had been planted up to June 21.

According to data from Cepea, between June 20 and 27, in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values decreased 0.28% in Rio Grande do Sul, 0.43% in Santa Catarina and 1.2% in Paraná. The prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) remained stable in Santa Catarina, but dropped 0.75% in Paraná, 2.58% in São Paulo and 1.2% in Rio Grande do Sul. The US dollar moved down 0.67% against Real, at BRL 5.486 on June 27.

In June, the monthly average of wheat prices in Paraná was BRL 1,511.75 per ton, downing 2.4% against May/25 and 5.7% in relation to that in June/24, in real terms (IGP-DI). In Rio Grande do Sul, the average was BRL 1,351.87/ton, -4% in one month and -10.1% in one year. In São Paulo, prices averaged BRL 1.533.10/ton, -4.4% and -10.9% in the same comparisons. As for Santa Catarina, the average was BRL 1,469.94/ton in June, upping 0.5% compared to May, but dropping 6.5% against that in the same month last year.

 

Senate Tax Bill Tightens Rules on Imported Biofuel Feedstocks

The latest Senate tax bill calls for a ban on biofuels made with materials sourced outside North America, such as Chinese used cooking oil, from claiming a credit meant to boost domestic renewable fuels.

• The measure is more restrictive than a prior version, which would have allowed makers of fuel with foreign feedstocks to claim 80% of the tax credit known as 45Z
• NOTE: New Senate text, which matches US House-passed bill, is expected to benefit US soybean and corn producers
• American Petroleum Institute is among lobbying groups and fuel producers opposing feedstock limits
• Senate bill also aims to aid US biodiesel makers by temporarily restoring the Small Agri-Biodiesel Producer Credit, which expired at the end of last year, and doubling its value to 20 cents per gallon

 

Argentina’s dry, cool weather heralds good wheat yields, exchange says

Dry, chilly weather over Argentina in the coming days is set to boost conditions for planting the country’s 2025/26 wheat crop, the Rosario grains exchange said on Monday, predicted higher than usual yields thanks to good levels of moisture in the soil.

Argentina is a top world supplier of wheat, and the exchange estimates that this season will see farmers plant some 7.1 million hectares with the staple crop, up from 6.9 million hectares planted last season.

The 2024/25 season had produced some 20.1 million tons of wheat, though Argentina’s largest ever wheat crop was in 2021/22, according to exchange data, when it hit 23 million tons.

“Water reserves are comparable with the best years of wheat, 2021 and 2017,” the exchange’s estimates chief Cristian Russo said in a report.

“This is very encouraging data that puts us on track for a season that could exceed average yields. Everything points to an environment of high wheat production,” Russo added.

As of last week, Argentine farmers had planted 72.7% of the area planned for the current season, according to the Buenos Aires exchange, which estimates a slightly lower farming area of 6.7 million hectares.

 

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.