TODAY – EXPORT SALES, USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND, BRAZIL CONAB
Wheat prices overnight are down 11 1/2 in SRW, down 10 in HRW, down 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans down 2 3/4; Soymeal up $0.07; Soyoil down 0.63.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 21 in SRW, down 22 1/4 in HRW, up 14 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/2; Soybeans down 5 1/4; Soymeal up $0.16; Soyoil down 2.07. For the month to date wheat prices are down 4 1/4 in SRW, down 20 1/4 in HRW, up 25 in HRS; Corn is up 20; Soybeans up 39 1/2; Soymeal up $16.30; Soyoil down 0.32.
Chinese Ag futures (MAY 22) Soybeans down 37 yuan ; Soymeal up 43; Soyoil down 94; Palm oil down 132; Corn down 8 — Malasyian Palm is down 63. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 63 ringgit (-1.30%) at 4778 a drop as traders weighed the tropical oil’s competitiveness against rival soybean oil and prospects for weaker demand.
There were changes in registrations (24 SRW Wheat, -2 Corn, -40 Soyoil, ). Registration total: 1,885 SRW Wheat contracts; 100 Oats; 0 Corn; 266 Soybeans; 192 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 8 were: SRW Wheat up 1,703 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,743, Corn up 8,654, Soybeans down 3,664, Soymeal down 1,767, Soyoil down 2,204.
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday, isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday, mostly north for the rest of the week but becoming more widespread Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to slightly above normal through Sunday.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers west Wednesday-Thursday, isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, above normal northeast to below normal southwest Thursday-Friday, near normal northeast to below normal southwest Saturday-Sunday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal northeast to below normal southwest Wednesday-Thursday, below normal Friday, near normal Saturday, below normal Sunday.
The player sheet for Dec. 8 had funds: net sellers of 7,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 1,500 corn, sellers of 7,500 soybeans, buyers of 6,000 soymeal, and sellers of 4,500 soyoil.
TENDERS
- CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 1,844,040 tonnes of U.S. corn to Mexico, including 1,089,660 tonnes for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year that began Sept. 1 and 754,380 tonnes for delivery in 2022/23.
- SOYBEAN SALE: The USDA also confirmed private sales of 130,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for 2021/22 delivery.
- WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korean flour mills bought around 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States and another 50,000 tonnes from Australia in tender on Wednesday
- BARLEY PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grain buyer purchased about 60,000 tonnes of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender which closed on Wednesday
- WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer received the lowest price offer assessed at $404.11 a tonne CIF liner out in an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 tonnes of wheat which closed on Wednesday
- FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Feb. 8 and arrive in Japan by March 10, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Dec. 15.
- CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Korea Corn Processing Industry Association (KOCOPIA) purchased about 50,000 to 60,000 tonnes of corn expected to be sourced from Ukraine in a private deal earlier this week without an international tender being issue
PENDING TENDERS
- WHEAT TENDER: An Ethiopian government agency issued an international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Importers in the Philippines are tendering to purchase a total of up to 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat and animal feed wheat plus about 125,000 tonnes of feed barley
- WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 260,312 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in regular tenders that will close on Dec. 9.
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
- CORN AND WHEAT TENDER: South Korea’s leading feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 69,000 tonnes of animal feed corn and up to 65,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat
DOE: U.S. Ethanol Stocks Rise 0.8% to 20.464M Bbl
According to the U.S. Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.
- Analysts were expecting 20.431 mln bbl
- Plant production at 1.09m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.046m
France Soft-Wheat Exports Increase 21% Y/y: FranceAgriMer
French soft-wheat exports outside the EU in the 2021-22 season totaled 2.66m tons through October, versus 2.21m tons at the same time last year, data posted by crops office FranceAgriMer showed Wednesday.
- Top markets are Algeria (870k tons), China (514k tons) and U.K. (211k tons)
- NOTE: Weekly trade reports posted by the European Commission have been lacking complete French figures this season, although the shipment data recently jumped
- French barley exports totaled 1.87m tons through October, up 63% y/y: AgriMer
- Includes 1.7m tons shipped to China
French Wheat Exports Cut on Rising Global Competition: AgriMer
A cut in FranceAgriMer’s outlook for French wheat exports is due to rising competition with South American crops, particularly from Argentina, as well as Ukraine wheat, Marc Zribi, head of its grain unit, said Wednesday at a press briefing.
- Wheat prices may be beginning to stabilize, and the market isn’t overly concerned about export quotas looming in Russia, he says
- NOTE: Paris milling-wheat futures reached a record high last month
- It’s too early to say how rising fertilizer prices and potential shortages will affect future harvests, says Benoit Pietrement, chair of the grains council
- Very likely that farmers will shift toward crops that require less nitrogen
Argentine wheat crop estimate raised to 22.1 mln tonnes -Rosario exchange
Argentine farmers are expected to harvest 22.1 million tonnes of wheat in the 2021/22 season, the Rosario grains exchange said in a report on Wednesday, citing better than expected yields as the reason for increasing its previous 20.4 million tonne estimate.
India wheat planting progresses rapidly amid favorable weather conditions
India wheat production is forecasted at 109.9 [101.1-115.3] million tons, remaining above last year’s record. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, India has sown 13.8 million hectares of wheat as of 26 November, compared to 13.4 million hectares of wheat for the same period last year.
The key wheat production areas in the North received normal precipitation. Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Rajasthan featured an increase in wheat sown area during the week of 25 November as compared to the same period last year as a result of favorable soil moisture.
Recent long-term weather forecast indications anticipate cool/dry weather for India between the months of March-May that are favorable for India’s wheat grain-fill and harvesting.
China Ministry Expects Local Soybean Prices to Stay High 2021/22
China’s lower-than-expected soybean production is likely to result in elevated prices in 2021-22, which could hurt demand for domestic soybean consumption and crushing, according to China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
- CASDE maintained forecasts for corn and soybean imports at 20m tons and 102m tons respectively
- Cotton imports forecast is cut to 2.4m tons from 2.5m-ton forecast made in Nov.
Farmers Ask Justice Department to Probe Fertilizer Price Hikes
Family Farm Action Alliance said fertilizer companies are abusing their market power to raise prices, according to a letter Wednesday seeking a Justice Department antitrust investigation.
- The corporations “are using their monopoly power to raise and lower the price charged to farmers not based on basic supply and demand, but rather on the price the farmer is paid for their commodity crops,” the group charged in its letter
- NOTE: Fertilizer prices have hit record highs amid rising natural gas prices and supply-chain snarls
- Just two companies, Nutrien Limited and Mosaic Company supply North America with potash, a potassium-based fertilizer, according to the group. Four firms dominate the sale of nitrogen-based fertilizer in the U.S.: Nutrien, CF Industries, Koch and Yara, according to the letter
Ammonia Remains Strong
Inland ammonia prices stayed firm as some farmers were still finishing off what has been a long application season. Spring prepay postings have stretched from $1,355 a short ton to $1,575. Yara is bringing back idled European ammonia plants, yet near-term supplies may be tight enough for another increase at Tampa in January. New Orleans urea rebounded from a week-ago drop, while inland prices slipped. Producers posted higher ammonium sulfate and nitrate prices. Phosphates were stable at NOLA but inched up inland, while potash edged down at NOLA and was stable at inland hubs.
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