Global Ag News for Dec 22nd

 TODAY – WEEKLY EIA PETROLEUM STATUS REPORT, COLD STORAGE

Wheat prices overnight are up 7 1/4 in SRW, up 4 1/4 in HRW, up 4 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 4 3/4; Soybeans up 11 3/4; Soymeal up $0.26; Soyoil up 0.56.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 31 1/4 in SRW, up 35 3/4 in HRW, up 7 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 9 3/4; Soybeans up 36; Soymeal up $1.66; Soyoil up 0.53. For the month to date wheat prices are up 19 in SRW, up 23 1/2 in HRW, up 20 in HRS; Corn is up 35 1/2; Soybeans up 98; Soymeal up $52.00; Soyoil down 0.82.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 22) Soybeans down 37 yuan ; Soymeal up 8; Soyoil up 130; Palm oil up 150; Corn down 20 — Malasyian Palm is up 64. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 64 ringgit (+1.46%) at 4448.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,900 SRW Wheat contracts; 39 Oats; 50 Corn; 244 Soybeans; 143 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 92 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 21 were: SRW Wheat up 1,531 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,825, Corn up 5,079, Soybeans up 7,962, Soymeal up 1,715, Soyoil down 487.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Saturday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday, north Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers east Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers east Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

The player sheet for Dec. 21 had funds: net buyers of 12,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 9,000 corn, buyers of 9,500 soybeans, buyers of 4,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 3,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT SALE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has purchased 320,000 tonnes of milling wheat in an international tender that closed on Tuesday
• WHEAT TENDER: Iranian state agency the Government Trading Corporation (GTC) has issued another international tender to purchase about 180,000 tonnes of milling wheat

PENDING TENDERS

• DURUM WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy durum wheat for shipment in February
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase 110,000 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins

ETHANOL: U.S. Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Dec. 17 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen slightly lower than last week at 1.086m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 21.051m bbl vs 20.883m a week ago
• Would be the fifth straight w/w increase and the highest since August

Soy Crop Conditions Worsen Again in Brazil’s Parana on Dryness

Soybean crops in Parana, one of Brazil’s largest-producing states, were rated lower for a third straight week due to hot, dry weather, according to figures on the state’s rural economics agency website.

• 57% of crops were rated good on Dec. 20, down from 71% a week earlier and 78% a year ago
• At the beginning of December, 91% of crops were good
• 30% rated regular as of Monday, up from 23% last week
• 13% of crops rated poor vs 6% in the previous report
• 71% of Parana’s soy are flowering or at grain filling stages, during which it is more susceptible to drought losses

Paraguay Soy Needs Rain to Recover from Dry December: Chamber

The outlook for the 2021-22 soy crop could turn “pessimistic” without enough rain later in December as many fields have already gone 20-25 days without any water, Paraguay’s grain and oilseed export chamber Capeco said in an emailed statement.

• Dry weather early in the season will affect local soy yields
• Paraguay harvested 9m metric tons of soy, 3m tons of corn and 700K tons of wheat in the 2020-21 season
• Capeco expects low water levels on the Parana, Paraguay rivers will delay shipping during 2022
• “The situation of the rivers is worrisome and improvements aren’t expected during the coming months,” Capeco said
• Capeco is concerned that new European restrictions on the use of agro chemicals, environmental measures constitute non-tariff trade barriers that affect farm imports from Mercosur

MGEX Spring Wheat Stocks Down 2.4% From Year Ago: Dec. 19

Stocks of hard spring wheat stored in Minnesota and Wisconsin warehouses fell to 23.049m bushels in the week ending Dec. 19, according to the Minneapolis Grain Exchange’s weekly report.

• Stockpiles fell by 1.93m bu from the previous week
• Stockpiles in Duluth/Superior warehouses down 1.85m bu

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Up 7% Y/y, But French Data Is Incomplete

Soft-wheat shipments during the season that began July 1 reached 14m tons as of Dec. 19, versus 13.1m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said Tuesday on its website.

• NOTE: Data for the prior season include trade for the U.K. until Dec. 31, 2020, when the country departed the EU customs union
• Top soft-wheat destinations are Algeria (2.16m tons), Egypt (1.33m tons) and Nigeria (1.09m tons)
• EU barley exports at 4.4m tons, versus 3.75m tons a year earlier
• China is the top market at 1.74m tons
• EU corn imports at 6.52m tons, against 8.18m tons a year earlier
• NOTE: Figures for France, one of the EU’s top grain exporters, remain incomplete, the commission says

Egypt Wheat Stocks Sufficient for 5.3 Months: MENA

Nation imported 5.5m tons of wheat and bought 3.5m tons from local farmers this year, the Supply Ministry says in a statement carried by the state-run Middle East News Agency.

• Wheat stocks sufficient for 5.3 months
• Rice stocks enough for 3 months
• Sugar covered under subsidy program sufficient for 3.5 months

Zimbabwe Increases Corn Price by 83% to Lure Growers

Ahead of planting, Zimbabwe’s corn price has been set at Z$58,553.25 per ton an 83% increase from the most recent purchasing price of Z$32,000 per ton, Rockie Mutenha, CEO of state-owned Grain Marketing Board, says in an emailed statement.

Russia violates WTO commitments with import bans, substitution policies -USTR

Russia continues to move away from commitments it made to join the World Trade Organization in 2012, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office said on Tuesday, citing agricultural import restrictions and import substitution policies.

In an annual report to Congress on Russia’s WTO compliance, USTR said Russia in 2021 introduced new tracking systems for consignments of goods through supply chains and has maintained non-science-based agricultural import restrictions.

“Over the past year, Russia has continued its trajectory of an economy moving away from the guiding principles of the WTO: non-discrimination, freer trade, predictability, transparency, and fair competition,” USTR said in the report.

“Rather, Russia maintains restrictive at-the-border measures, institutes behind-the-border measures to inhibit trade, and implements an industrial policy seemingly driven by the guiding principles of import substitution and forced localization.”

The United States has raised concerns about Russia’s actions and will “use all appropriate means to resolve the matter and keep Russia’s markets open to U.S. exports,” USTR said.

EPA reviews Bayer herbicide blamed for widespread U.S. crop damage

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is assessing whether the weed killer dicamba can be sprayed safely on soybean and cotton plants genetically engineered to resist the chemical, without the procedure posing “unreasonable risks” to other crops, an agency official said on Tuesday.

Farmers and scientists for years have reported problems with dicamba drifting away from where it is sprayed on fields, causing damage to nearby plants not modified to resist the herbicide.

The EPA said it received about 3,500 reports this year indicating that more than a million acres of non-dicamba-tolerant soybean crops were allegedly damaged when the chemical drifted from where it was applied. Trees and crops like rice and grapes also suffered damage, the agency said.

The number, severity and geographic extent of the incidents was similar to last year, even though the EPA had tightened restrictions on dicamba use for the 2021 growing season, the agency said. (Full Story)

“Right now we don’t know whether over-the-top dicamba can be used in a manner that doesn’t pose unreasonable risks to non-target crops and other plants,” said Michal Freedhoff, an EPA assistant administrator.

USDA Raises Estimates for U.S. Retail Beef and Pork Inflation

USDA raised its 2021 est. for meat prices for the eighth consecutive month, according to the December Food Price Outlook report released on the agency’s website.

• Beef raised to a range of 9%-10% in December from 7.5%-8.5% y/y in November
• Pork raised to 8%-9% vs 7%-8%
• Poultry 4.5%-5.5% vs 4%-5%
• Despite increases in meat categories, USDA maintained its est. for overall 2021 food inflation at a range of 3%-4%
• The agency sees prices slowing to a pace of 2%-3% increase in 2022