Global Ag News for Dec 16th

TODAY – GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 1/4 in SRW, up 2 in HRW, up 4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 3/4; Soybeans up 8 1/2; Soymeal up $0.26; Soyoil up 0.54.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 27 in SRW, down 18 in HRW, down 8 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 1/2; Soymeal up $0.57; Soyoil up 0.29. For the month to date wheat prices are down 29 in SRW, down 34 3/4 in HRW, up 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 21; Soybeans up 47 1/4; Soymeal up $30.50; Soyoil down 1.27.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 22) Soybeans up 55 yuan ; Soymeal up 28; Soyoil up 46; Palm oil unchanged; Corn down 10 — Malasyian Palm is up 133. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 133 ringgit (+2.96%) at 4619.

There were changes in registrations (-7 Soyoil, -10 HRW Wheat, ). Registration total: 1,900 SRW Wheat contracts; 41 Oats; 50 Corn; 244 Soybeans; 146 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 98 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 15 were: SRW Wheat up 2,766 contracts, HRW Wheat up 486, Corn up 6,014, Soybeans down 4,302, Soymeal up 1,548, Soyoil up 6,061.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

 Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

The player sheet for Dec. 15 had funds: net sellers of 20,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 5,000 corn, sellers of 1,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • WHEAT SALE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC purchased around 690,000 to 700,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat in an international tender on Tuesday
  • WHEAT SALE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased around 60,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat in a private deal on Wednesday without issuing an international tende
  • WHEAT SALE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries(MAFF) bought a total of 228,783 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in regular tenders that closed on Thursday.
  • FAILED FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it received no offers for feed-quality wheat or barley in a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that closed late on Wednesday.
  • FAILED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday

PENDING TENDERS

  • WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer received the lowest price offer assessed at $404.11 a tonne CIF liner out in an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 tonnes of wheat which closed on Dec. 8
  • WHEAT TENDER: Iranian state agency the Government Trading Corporation (GTC) has issued an international tender to purchase about 180,000 tonnes of milling wheat
  • FEED WHEAT TENDER: An importer group in the Philippines is tendering to purchase up to 220,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat
  • RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued another international tender to purchase an estimated 22,000 tonnes of rice to be sourced from the United States
  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
  • WHEAT TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase about 320,000 tonnes of milling wheat

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

  • Corn est. range 2,000k – 2,800k tons, with avg of 2,439k
  • Soybean est. range 1,100k – 1,900k tons, with avg of 1,553k

DOE: U.S. Ethanol Stocks Rise 2.0% to 20.883M Bbl

According to the U.S. Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

  • Analysts were expecting 20.579 mln bbl
  • Plant production at 1.087m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.084m

U.S. NOPA November Soybean Processing Falls to 179.5M Bushels

The crush compares with 181.02m bushels a year earlier, National Oilseed Processors Association data released by Thomson Reuters showed Wednesday.

  • The average estimate of analysts in a Bloomberg survey was 181.8m bu
  • Soybean-oil inventories at the end of last month were 1.832b lbs, compared with 1.558b a year earlier; average estimate by analysts was 1.861b

Malaysia Dec. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports to EU 164,030 Tons: SGS

Following is a table of Malaysia’s palm oil export figures, according to estimates by independent cargo surveyor SGS Malaysia Sdn.

  • EU imported 164,030 tons; -15.4% m/m
  • Turkey imported 100,470 tons; +136.2% m/m

Paraguay soybean production down on continued dryness in southern Oriental Region

Continued dryness and low soil moisture throughout key producing areas of the southeastern Oriental Region lower 2021/22 Paraguay soybean production by 3% to 9.82 [9.03–10.74] million tons. Our median production estimate is below the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 10.0 million tons, which assumes national level area and yield at 3.4 million hectares and 2.94 tons per hectare (tph), respectively (vs. Refinitiv Ag Research’s 3.36 million hectares and 2.92 tph, respectively).

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Up 8.7% Y/y; French Figures Still Lag

Soft-wheat shipments during the season that began July 1 reached 13.1m tons as of Dec. 12, versus 12.1m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said Wednesday on its website.

  • NOTE: Data for the prior season include trade for the U.K. until Dec. 31, 2020, when the country departed the EU customs union
  • Top soft-wheat destinations were Algeria (2.13m tons), Egypt (1.26m tons) and Nigeria (1.04m tons)
  • EU barley exports at 4.37m tons, versus 3.59m tons a year earlier
  • China is the top market at 1.74m tons
  • EU corn imports at 5.94m tons, against 7.77m tons a year earlier

U.K. Keeps 2021 Wheat Crop Estimate Steady at 14M Tons: Defra

This year’s wheat harvest totaled 14m tons, the U.K. government said in its final results for the season.

  • That’s unchanged from an initial estimate in October and is up 45% y/y
  • Barley crop fell 14% to 7m tons, and rapeseed dropped 5.5% to 981k tons

Strategie Sees EU 2022 Wheat, Corn Crops Falling Y/y; Barley Up

EU soft-wheat production in the 2022-23 season is estimated at 127.6m tons, down 1.3% y/y, analyst Strategie Grains says in an emailed report with its initial figures for next year.

  • “Wheat stocks look set to remain in equilibrium, with a smaller harvest but higher industrial demand and lower exports”
  • Barley crop seen at 51.8m tons, versus 51.7m tons
  • Corn crop seen at 66.4m tons, versus 68.3m tons
  • For the current season, EU wheat export prospects are improving on better sales to China, Egypt, Morocco and Vietnam
  • Still, Algeria opening its tenders to Russian wheat will dent sales there

WORLD OUTLOOK:

  • Soft-wheat crop seen rising 2.9% y/y to 725.3m tons in 2022-23
  • Barley crop seen rising to 154m tons, from 144.2m tons
  • Corn crop seen rising to 1.166b tons, from 1.155b tons
  • Grain prices are likely to fall next season, but may remain “somewhat higher than where the historical relationship between prices and inventory suggests”
  • That’s due to high energy costs, supply-chain disruptions and substantial Chinese imports

Russia May Reduce Planned Wheat-Export Quota by 1m Tons

Russia may set a planned wheat-export quota at about 8m tons, rather than a previously planned 9m tons, two people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified before the official announcement.

  • Proposed quota is expected to be announced on Wednesday evening, people say
  • Economy Ministry, which overseas the quota, declined to comment
  • NOTE: Russia will set grain and wheat quotas for Feb. 15-June 30 to ensure enough domestic supply

 SovEcon Ups Ukraine Corn Est., Sees China Buying ‘Aggressively’

Ukraine’s 2021 corn harvest is now seen at 40.4m tons, up 0.5m tons from a prior estimate, consultant SovEcon wrote in an emailed note.

  • That’s based on good yields in the west and would be an all-time high
  • “As per traders, China is currently aggressively booking” Ukrainian supply and has probably purchased 8m-10m tons so far
    • That’s likely to make Ukraine its leading corn supplier this season
    • Still, USDA’s forecast for China corn imports at 26m tons in 2021-22 is probably “too optimistic”

India Should Commit $656M in Next Budget to Boost Oilseed Output

The government should allocate 50 billion rupees ($656 million) in its 2022-23 budget to help farmers increase production of oilseeds, including rapeseed, peanuts and soybeans, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

Argentina Reduces or Scraps Export Taxes on Niche Farm Products

Exports included in the measure include “micronized” fine-ground soy meal; organic soybeans, organic soy meal, organic corn and organic wheat; some forms of peanuts and popcorn, the Economy Ministry said in a statement sent through text message.

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