Global Ag News for Dec 10th

TODAY – COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS

Wheat prices overnight are up 7 3/4 in SRW, up 4 in HRW, up 5 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans up 1 1/4; Soymeal up $0.20; Soyoil down 0.29.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 19 in SRW, down 23 3/4 in HRW, up 7 in HRS; Corn is up 6 3/4; Soybeans up 2 1/4; Soymeal up $0.54; Soyoil down 2.45. For the month to date wheat prices are down 2 3/4 in SRW, down 21 3/4 in HRW, up 17 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 23 1/4; Soybeans up 47; Soymeal up $20.10; Soyoil down 0.70.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 22) Soybeans down 55 yuan ; Soymeal up 36; Soyoil down 126; Palm oil down 146; Corn down 8 — Malasyian Palm is up 22. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 22 ringgit (+0.46%) at 4800.

There were changes in registrations (-26 Soyoil). Registration total: 1,885 SRW Wheat contracts; 100 Oats; 0 Corn; 266 Soybeans; 166 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 9 were: SRW Wheat down 793 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,744, Corn up 10,109, Soybeans down 6,502, Soymeal down 4,757, Soyoil up 1,243.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Monday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers north through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures above normal east and below normal west Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday.

The player sheet for Dec. 9 had funds: net sellers of 9,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 2,500 corn, sellers of 1,500 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 280,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations, including 140,000 tonnes for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year that began Sept. 1 and 140,000 tonnes for delivery in 2022/23.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased 60,000 tonnes of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in a tender which closed on Thursday
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Korea Corn Processing Industry Association (KOCOPIA) purchased about 50,000 to 60,000 tonnes of corn expected to be sourced from Ukraine in a private deal earlier this week without an international tender being issued
• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korean animal feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) is believed to have purchased around 60,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat in an international tender which closed on Thursday, but rejected all offers and made no purchase of 69,000 tonnes of corn also sought
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer received the lowest price offer assessed at $404.11 a tonne CIF liner out in an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 tonnes of wheat which closed on Wednesday
• WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Importers in the Philippines tendered to purchase up to 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat and animal feed wheat plus about 125,000 tonnes of feed barley, European traders said. Deadline for price submissions is Dec. 9, they said.
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 260,312 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in regular tenders that will close on Dec. 9.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 22,000 tonnes of rice to be sourced from the United States
• FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Feb. 8 and arrive in Japan by March 10, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Dec. 15.

Brazil’s 2022 Soy Exports Seen Higher on Bumper Crop: Conab

Brazil’s soybean exports may reach a record of 90.7m tons next year, rising from 85.8m tons in 2021, the state-owned agriculture agency Conab says in report.

• Export forecast for 2022 was raised from previously 89.9m tons
• 2021 shipments also seen higher due to higher-than-expected Nov. shipments and a strong line-up this month
• Output estimate for 2021-22 season was raised to 142.8m tons from 142m tons previously on beneficial weather
• 2022 soy-oil exports estimate raised to 1.5m tons from 1.1m amid a lower domestic demand due to a reduction on biodiesel content mixed into fossil diesel next year
• Crushing seen rising to 48.5m tons vs 47m tons previously
• Ending stocks est. cut to 5.3m tons from 9.3m on higher exports, crushing

Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates Dec. 9: Exchange (Table)

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2021-22 Wheat production est. raised to 21m tons vs 20.3m tons
  • Harvest 53.4% complete
• Soybean and corn planting estimates maintained

Biofuel Groups Urge EPA to Clear Way for Higher Ethanol Blend

Biofuel and farm groups are asking EPA Administrator Michael Regan to take action that would allow year-round sales of higher ethanol fuel blends known as E15, a move they say would help the environment.

• Reducing the volatility of gasoline by 1 pound per square inch would improve air quality, groups including Growth Energy, Renewable Fuels Association and the National Corn Growers Association write in Dec. 9 letter to Regan
• The groups cite a study showing that lowering the volatility of gasoline blendstock would impact the cost of the fuel “by just 1-2 pennies per gallon,” according to a statement from Growth Energy
• NOTE: In October, Growth Energy asked the U.S. Supreme Court to step in and decide that the EPA reasonably interpreted a Clean Air Act provision to allow summer sales of fuel containing more than 15% ethanol

Biofuel Groups Press Congressional Leaders on Green Jet Fuel

Biofuel groups are calling on U.S. congressional leaders to exclude fuels made by co-processing biomass with petroleum at oil refineries from proposed tax incentives for sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF.

• Such fuels are not permitted for the biodiesel and renewable diesel tax credit, they argue in a letter to top lawmakers, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell
• “Congress should clarify in the Build Back Better legislation that all transportation fuels – including aviation fuels – made by co-processing biomass with non-biomass feedstocks are ineligible for incentives,” the groups write
• “Additionally, Congress can provide more certainty regarding which fuels will be eligible for federal tax credits”
• NOTE: The Dec. 9 letter is from the National Biodiesel Board, Growth Energy, NATSO, which represents U.S. travel plazas and truck stops, and fuel marketer group SIGMA

Malaysia Nov. Palm Stockpiles -1% M/m to 1.82M Tons: MPOB

Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, the world’s second-largest producer, fell 1% to 1.82 million tons in November from a month earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement today.

• Palm oil exports +3.3% m/m to 1.47m tons
• Imports +92.5% m/m to 97,092 tons
• Crude palm oil production -5.3% m/m to 1.63m tons

Malaysia’s Dec. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports 544,059 Tons: AmSpec

Shipments little changed from 543,944 tons exported during Nov. 1-10, according to AmSpec Agri on Friday.

• Exports to India +35.9% m/m to 423,504 tons, +40.7% y/y
• Exports to China -17.1% m/m to 202,195 tons, -32.8% y/y
• Exports to EU +43% m/m to 151,711 tons, -16.1% y/y

Argentina Has No Plans to Restrict Corn, Wheat Exports

Forecasts for a bumper wheat crop and wider corn planting y/y mean export restrictions won’t be necessary, Argentina Agricultural Markets Secretary Javier Preciado Patino said in an interview on the sidelines of an event in Buenos Aires.

• NOTE: Farmers continually fear that the government will intervene in grain export markets

Iran to Import Record Amount of Wheat in 2021-22 Season: USDA

Iran’s wheat imports are now seen at 7m tons in the current season, up 1.5m tons from a November estimate, USDA says Thursday in its WASDE report.

• That’s partially due to a further downgrade to the domestic crop
• Would mark the country’s largest purchases on record, topping 6.8m tons in the 2008-09 season

Argentina to Ease Export Limits on Several Beef Cuts

Slaughterhouses will now be able to freely export most cuts of beef that had been subject to quotas, Agriculture Minister Julian Dominguez said at an event in Buenos Aires.

• Seven cuts popular in Argentina can still not be exported, Dominguez said
• Exporters have committed to providing 20,000 metric tons of beef to domestic market at controlled prices for the holiday period
• Argentina’s beef policy through 2023 aims to keep prices accessible at home to ensure annual consumption stays above 50kg/person: Dominguez
• Argentina cattle herd has fallen by 1.5m over last 3 years, a time when exports were high. Dominguez announced policies to incentivize recovering the herd to prevent rising prices from supply shortages

Argentine ranchers ask government to deregulate beef export market

The leaders of Argentina’s main agricultural associations said they will press their case for deregulation of the beef export market when they meet late on Thursday with Agriculture Minister Julian Dominguez.

Argentina is a key global supplier of beef. Since mid-year the government has erected export limits in a bid to curb domestic food price inflation. Consumer prices in general are expected to end this year about 50% higher as the economy exits a long recession, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

The government’s interventions in the beef market have generated uncertainty in the sector, setting the stage for a showdown between ranchers and policymakers at 6 p.m. (2100 GMT).

“Our intention is to totally open the export market, which would provide producers with policy predictability,” Carlos Achetoni, president of the Argentine Agrarian Federation, told Reuters, when asked about the objective of the meeting.

In the middle of the year the government limited exports of beef to 50% of the previous year’s normal volume. Beef is a politically sensitive food for Argentines planning traditional year-end barbecues.

Since then, President Alberto Fernandez has relaxed the limits. But Achetoni said there are still some categories of cows whose meat cannot be exported, while some limits of international shipments to some locations like Israel and the European Union remain.

“Meat exports have to be 100% open,” said Nicolas Pino, president of Argentine Rural Association said. Reuters contacted the Agriculture Ministry but did not get an immediate response.

Pino said the industry is providing plenty of meat for local consumers and that continued export limits were unnecessary.

Official data indicate that Argentina, a country of 45 million inhabitants with a bovine herd of 53.5 million animals, exported about 675,000 tonnes of beef between January and October, with 73.2% of those shipments going to China.

Russian Wheat-Export Tax to Rise to $91/Ton Next Week

Russia’s wheat export customs duty will increase to $91/ton next week from $84.90, the Agriculture Ministry said Friday on its website.

• NOTE: The rates are set weekly and take effect three working days after publication
• NOTE: Russia started the floating tax from June 2, with a $28.10/ton levy; next week’s level will be a record

U.S. Barge Shipments of Grain Rose 27% Last Week: USDA

Shipments along the Mississippi, Illinois, Ohio and Arkansas rivers increased in the week ending Dec. 4 from the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 48% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 6% w/w

U.S. Grain Movement by Rail Fell 13.9% Week Ended Dec. 1: USDA