Global Ag News for Aug 6.24

TOP HEADLINES

Much-needed rains arrive at a crucial time for Argentina’s wheat

Rains fell over the weekend in large parts of Argentina’s central agricultural zone, arriving at a crucial time for the 2023/24 wheat crop after the driest month of July recorded in almost 60 years, the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) said on Monday.

In the center and east of the Argentine Pampas region, between 10 and 30 millimeters of rainfall were recorded in the last 48 hours, which will improve the condition of wheat plants and allow producers to begin fertilizing, according to the BCR report.

Argentina is a key global wheat exporter and 6.3 million hectares were planted in its current agricultural campaign, according to the Stock Exchange.

The rains “come at a crucial time for wheat, as the crop was deteriorating week by week and 10% was in fair to poor condition,” BCR said in the report.

The agency said more precipitation was expected in early September and that it will “continue boosting wheat growth.” It added that the weekend rains were also good for the upcoming corn planting.

Argentina is the world’s third-largest exporter of corn and its planting will begin in September.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 in SRW, down 3 1/4 in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is down 3 3/4; Soybeans down 17 3/4; Soymeal down $4.10; Soyoil down 0.94.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 2 1/2 in SRW, down 2 3/4 in HRW, down 8 1/2 in HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans down 4 1/2; Soymeal up $3.00; Soyoil down 1.53.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 9 1/4 in SRW, up 8 in HRW, up 5 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/2; Soybeans up 1/2; Soymeal up $12.00; Soyoil down 3.03.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 14.6% in SRW, down 13.2% in HRW, down 18.9% in HRS; Corn is down 17.9%; Soybeans down 19.3%; Soymeal down 6.6%; Soyoil down 14.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans down 24 yuan; Soymeal down 37; Soyoil down 106; Palm oil down 162; Corn down 25 — Malaysian Palm is down 80.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 80 ringgit (-2.11%) at 3707.

 

There were changes in registrations (-31 Soybeans). Registration total: 424 SRW Wheat contracts; 6 Oats; 17 Corn; 13 Soybeans; 1,166 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 5 were: SRW Wheat down 3,163 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,111, Corn down 20,056, Soybeans down 8,526, Soymeal down 8,084, Soyoil down 8,381.

August Deliveries

• Soybeans
  • 8/5: 0
  • Total:  123
• Soybean Oil
  • 8/5: 201
  • Total: 1,219
• Soybean Meal
  • Total: 0

 

Northern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Friday.  6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers north Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal near to below normal north and above normal south Tuesday-Friday.  6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Midwest West: SMostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday.

Midwest East: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday.  6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Tuesday, near normal Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for Aug. 5 had funds: net sellers of 0 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 3,500 corn, sellers of 5,000 soybeans, buyers of 3,500 soymeal, and sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• RICE PURCHASE: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog is believed to have purchased about 320,000 metric tons of rice in an international tender late last week
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• VEGETABLE OILS TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said it was seeking vegetable oils in an international tender for arrival Oct. 15-31 and/or Nov. 1-15. GASC is seeking 30,000 metric tons of soyoil and 10,000 metric tons of sunflower oil. GASC said traders should submit bids for payment at sight using funding from the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation. The deadline for offers is Aug. 7.

 

 

 

TODAY

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Conditions 67% G/E, Soybeans 68%

Highlights from the report:

• Corn 67% G/E vs 68% last week, and 57% a year ago
• Soybeans 68% G/E vs 67% last week, and 54% a year ago
• Spring wheat 74% G/E vs 74% last week, and 41% a year ago
• Spring wheat harvest 6% G/E vs 1% last week, and 8% a year ago
• Winter wheat harvest 88% vs 82% last week, and 85% a year ago
• Cotton 45% G/E vs 49% last week, and 41% a year ago
• Sorghum 47% G/E vs 55% last week, and 57% a year ago

 

US Inspected 1.213m Tons of Corn for Export, 261k of Soybeans

In week ending Aug. 1, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 261k tons vs 409k the previous wk, 291k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,213k tons vs 1,070k the previous wk, 388k a yr ago
• Wheat: 441k tons vs 454k the previous wk, 319k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Aug. 1

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Aug. 1 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Indonesia-bound shipments made up 86k tons of the 261k total inspected
• Japan was the top destination for corn inspections, Mexico led in wheat

 

Brazil C-S Winter Corn Harvest 95% Done as of Aug. 1st: Agrural

Compares with 91% a week earlier and 64% a year before, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• Index is the highest in historical series, which began in 2013, AgRural says
• With work virtually completed in Mato Grosso
• In the other states, the harvest is very close to the end, with good productivity in most of Goias, but lower yields in Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais due to irregular rainfall and heat during crop development

 

Brazil C-S Winter Corn Harvest 88.3% Completed: Safras

That compares with 60.6% a year earlier, and a five-year average of 51.7%, according to a report from consulting firm Safras & Mercado.

• Harvest is 83.5% completed in Parana area, 72.4% in Sao Paulo, 87.6% in Mato Grosso do Sul, 80.2% in Goias, 98.5% in Mato Grosso and 49% in Minas Gerais

 

USDA attaché sees Brazil 2024/25 corn crop at 127 mln metric tons

Following are selected highlights from a report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service post in Brasilia:

“With the expected end of the El Nino weather phenomenon, which severely impacted corn productivity this 2023/24 harvest, Post forecasts a year-on-year increase in corn production for MY (marketing year) 2024/25 (March 2025–February 2026) at 127 MMT (million metric tons). Corn exports for MY 2024/25 are expected to drop to 46 MMT, based on increased domestic consumption, especially by the corn ethanol industry in Brazil … Wheat production was forecast at 9.6 MMT for MY 2024/25, 2% lower than the initial projection, due to the lack of incentives for producers to invest in wheat crops this coming season in addition to the possible effects of late planting in Rio Grande do Sul.”

 

Brazil’s acreage for soybeans will increase only slightly in 2024/25 season, says farmers group

Acreage where soybeans are cultivated in Brazil will increase at a slower rate for the 2024/25 season than in previous ones as future prices for the oilseed are near a four-year low, Mauricio Buffon, president of farmers group Aprosoja Brasil, said on Monday.

Brazil is the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans, with China being the biggest market.

“We believe that areas where soy will be planted should have one of the smallest growth rates,” he told reporters on the sidelines of an annual conference, organized by Brazil’s agribusiness association Abag.

Soy futures have been nearing the lowest levels since October 2020 amid expectations of more favorable weather for crops in the United States and concerns over a possible slowdown of the economy.

Brazil’s acreage where soybeans are cultivated rose 4.5% to 46 million hectares in 2023/24 compared with the previous season, and 6% in 2022/23, according to data from government’s crop agency Conab.

“I don’t know if it (the growth in 2024/25) will reach 1%,” Buffon said, adding that deadly floods in the country’s southernmost state Rio Grande do Sul were also a limiting factor.

Earlier this year, floods devastated areas where soybeans could be planted and left many farmers reeling financially.

The estimate is in line with projections released by private analysts: Consultancies StoneX and Datagro forecast increases of 0.79% and 1.5%, respectively. It would be the 18th consecutive increase, Datagro said.

McKinsey & Company estimated that between 70 million and 80 million hectares would be needed worldwide by 2030 to produce food.

“We’re a country with greater potential in this,” Nelson Ferreira, a senior partner and global leader of agriculture at the consultancy, said at the same event.

To produce food in a more sustainable way, without deforestation, Ferreira said it was necessary to “accelerate” the recovery of degraded areas.

 

USDA attaché sees EU 2024/25 wheat production at 127.4 million T

Following are selected highlights from a report released on Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service post in Madrid:

“EU grain production in MY (marketing year) 2024/25 is expected to decline from last year’s levels due to a combination of smaller area planted to grains and lower yields affecting all grains except for barley and oats … Overall, EU wheat crop in MY 2024/25 is expected to decline to 127.4 MMT (million metric tons), driven by a sharply reduced French wheat crop, and lower German, Hungarian, Polish, and Romanian crops not being offset by a higher Spanish crop. The EU wheat area for MY 2024/25 has been slightly adjusted downward from previous estimates due to lower than previously anticipated plantings in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Hungary, and Italy, not being offset by higher areas in Germany, Poland, and Romania.”

UkrAgroConsult Lowers Ukraine 2024-25 Corn Estimate on Weather

Analysts at UkrAgroConsult cut their Ukraine corn production estimate by 1.4m tons to 26m tons due to unseasonably hot and dry weather in the main growing areas, they write in a report.

• Corn exports from Ukraine in 2024/25 season may decrease by 30% due to crop losses, they write
  • Exports seen at 20.4m tons in 2024-25
  • Ukraine is the fourth-biggest corn exporter globally
• Total grain harvest estimated at 52.9m tons
• Shipments from the world’s top 5 corn exporters seen at 166.5m tons in 2024-25, compared to 177.5m tons in previous season
  • Decline is mainly due to Ukraine, but situation may change after corn planting starts in South America
• Sees lower corn demand in EU, where the wheat quality is expected to drop to feed quality
  • “The decline in Ukraine’s corn crop is not enough to support prices,” report said, adding that “the main factor is the expectation of a good corn crop in the US and high carryover stocks.”

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Price average in July in RS is the highest since Dec/22

Wheat values increased steeply in July, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, where the monthly price average was the highest since December/22, in real terms (IGP-DI June/24). This scenario is related to the low surplus of high-quality wheat and to the low soil moist in most part of July. However, the upward trend was interrupted last week, due to rains in some producing areas in Rio Grande do Sul.

In July, the monthly average of wheat prices in RS was BRL 1,468.41 per ton, the highest since December 2022, upping 3.3% compared to June/24 and 8.3% above that in July/23, in real terms (IGP-DI). In Paraná, the average was BRL 1,546.94/ton, the highest since April/23, 2% up in one month and +11.3% in one year. In São Paulo, prices averaged BRL 1.599.22/ton, -1.7% and +14.1% in the same comparisons.

According to data from Cepea, between July 26 and August 2, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) were stable in Rio Grande do Sul, but rose 2.26% and 0.58% in Santa Catarina and in Paraná, respectively. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations downed 0.26% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.31% in Paraná, but increased 1.49% in São Paulo and 0.04% in Santa Catarina. Dollar quotations upped 0.87% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.711 on August 2.

Planting activities finished in Rio Grande do Sul and in Paraná; in Santa Catarina, the planting reached 82% of the total – data from Conab. As for the harvesting, activities hit 4.1% of the total volume.

 

 

 

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