Global Ag News for Aug 22.24

TOP HEADLINES

Crop tour finds huge Illinois corn yield potential, big soy pod counts

Corn yield prospects in Illinois are the biggest in the Pro Farmer crop tour’s 32-year history and the state’s soybean pod count is the largest seen on the tour since 2000, scouts on the annual U.S. Midwest tour reported on Wednesday.

The crop tour projected the Illinois corn yield at 204.14 bushels per acre (bpa), a record that surpassed the tour’s previous high set in 2014. The figure topped the tour’s 2023 Illinois average of 193.72 bpa and the three-year average of 193.58 bpa.

“Those were heavy, heavy ears, extreme heavy ears that we pulled, in a lot of cases,” said Brian Grete, editor of Pro Farmer and leader of the tour’s eastern leg.

The potential for a bumper harvest comes as grain and oilseed futures prices have slumped to nearly four-year lows amid robust global supplies and concerns about demand from top soy buyer China. The U.S. Department of Agriculture this month forecast record U.S. corn and soybean yields and projected the Illinois corn yield at a whopping 225 bpa, topping the state’s previous record by 11 bpa.

The four-day crop tour, which does not project soybean yields, estimated the number of soybean pods in a 3-by-3-foot square in Illinois, the top soybean producing state, at an average of 1,419.11, above last year’s tour average of 1,270.61 pods and the three-year average of 1,266.70 pods.

Scouts on the tour’s western leg found mostly above-average corn yield prospects in the western third of Iowa, though heavy spring rains and hail during the growing season impacted fields in the state’s northwest corner.

The tour projected corn yields in northwest Iowa’s crop District 1 at 176.59 bushels per acre (bpa), below last year’s findings and the tour’s three-year average. Soybean pod counts per 3-by-3 foot area averaged 1,108.76, down from last year but slightly up over the three-year average.

Corn yields in the west-central District 4 were pegged at 195.86 bpa, above the tour’s year-ago and three-year averages. Soybean pod counts averaged 1,254.09, up from 2023 and the three-year average.

And corn yields in southwest Iowa’s District 7 were seen at 191.59 bpa, also up from the year-ago and three-year averages. Soybean pod counts averaged 1,366.22 pods, above last year’s count and the three-year average.

The crop tour, which began on Monday, will release statewide figures for Iowa as well as Minnesota on Thursday.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 1/4 in SRW, up 1 3/4 in HRW, down 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans down 6; Soymeal down $2.90; Soyoil up 0.12.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 6 1/4 in SRW, down 1 1/2 in HRW, down 12 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 6; Soybeans up 18 3/4; Soymeal up $3.70; Soyoil up 1.03.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 5 3/4 in SRW, down 12 1/4 in HRW, down 4 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans down 47; Soymeal down $9.90; Soyoil down 2.62.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 16.9% in SRW, down 16.5% in HRW, down 19.5% in HRS; Corn is down 20.2%; Soybeans down 26.1%; Soymeal down 19.9%; Soyoil down 14.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 24) Soybeans up 3 yuan; Soymeal up 20; Soyoil up 26; Palm oil up 84; Corn up 21 — Malaysian Palm is up 72.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 72 ringgit (+1.92%) at 3826.

There were changes in registrations (-47 Soyoil). Registration total: 424 SRW Wheat contracts; 6 Oats; 15 Corn; 10 Soybeans; 474 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 21 were: SRW Wheat up 296 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,739, Corn down 8,843, Soybeans up 5,814, Soymeal up 4,020, Soyoil down 2,992.

 

Northern Plains: Multiple disturbances continue to bring scattered showers into next week, which may produce some unneeded rainfall to mature wheat areas and overly wet corn and soybean areas. Loss of quality and delays to harvest will be possible for wheat.

Central/Southern Plains: It remains hot in Texas while other areas have had a bit of a break. Temperatures will start to rise Friday and likely last into next week, which may cause stress. Only isolated showers are forecast for the next week, which could be a stressful combination for those that are hot and dry. A system will move through later next week that could bring some needed rainfall and a burst of cooler air.

Midwest: Temperatures are mild but a warm front lifting into the region will cause them to rise this weekend. The front may produce a few showers, with Illinois being favored. Otherwise, dry conditions continue for most areas with soil moisture dropping for filling corn and soybeans. A small front will move into the region early next week that may produce some showers. But chances are better later next week with a much stronger system rolling through. That should produce needed rainfall as well as bring in some cooler temperatures.

 

The player sheet for Aug. 21 had funds: net sellers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 500 corn, sellers of 1,500 soybeans, buyers of 750 soymeal, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: Exporters sold 132,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China and 121,000 tons to unknown destinations for shipment in the 2024/25 marketing year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said. It was the third consecutive day that USDA confirmed soy sales to China in its daily reporting system.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 75,000 metric tons of soft wheat in an international tender
• WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender
• CORN, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, 40,000 tons of soymeal, and 35,000 tons of feed barley.
• NO PURCHASE IN BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 81,442 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that will close late on Aug. 22.

 

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 0.9% to 23.574M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 23.339 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.098m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.066m

 

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Aug. 15.

• Corn est. range 650k – 1,400k tons, with avg of 1,072k
• Soybean est. range 850k – 1,600k tons, with avg of 1,308k

 

Argentina to Plant Least Corn in 8 Years After Leafhopper Plague

Farmers are forecast to plant just 6.3m hectares (15.6m acres) of corn in the 2024-25 season, 17% less than last season and the least since 2016-17, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a report.

• The trend is being driven by uncertainty over corn stunt disease spread by leafhoppers after a severe outbreak last season
• It’s also being influenced by weather and poor economics for growing corn
  • A weak La Nina climate pattern could mean drier-than-normal growing conditions, and corn in Argentina is much more capital-intensive than soy
• Profit margins are slim since corn prices are low
  • Seed, herbicide and fertilizer costs relative to corn prices are ~15% higher than last season
• NOTE: Corn acreage is seen shrinking by 21% y/y, the Rosario Board of Trade said in a report last week

 

Western Iowa corn yield prospects mostly above average, crop tour finds

Corn yield prospects are mostly above average across western Iowa, though heavy spring rains and hail during the growing season impacted fields in the state’s northwest corner, scouts on an annual tour of the top corn producing state found on Wednesday.

Grain and oilseed prices have slumped to nearly four-year lows amid robust global supplies and growing concerns about demand from top soy buyer China.

The Pro Farmer Crop Tour projected corn yields in northwest Iowa’s crop District 1 at 176.59 bushels per acre (bpa), below the 182.58 bpa last year and the tour’s three-year average of 182.55 bpa.

Corn yields in west-central District 4 were pegged at 195.86 bpa, well above the tour’s average yield of 168.71 bpa last year and up from its three-year average of 183.54 bpa for the district.

Corn yields in southwestern District 7 were seen at 191.59 bpa, up from 184.84 bpa a year ago and the three-year average of 183.67 bpa.

Soybean pod counts per 3-by-3 foot area averaged 1108.76 in District 1, down from 1,137.24 pods last year but slightly up over the three-year average of 1,105.44.

In District 4, pod counts averaged 1,254.09, up from 1,120.30 in 2023 and the three-year average of 1,201.49.

District 7 soybean pod counts averaged 1,366.22, above last year’s count of 1,170.28 and the three-year average of 1,253.91.

The tour will release statewide Iowa figures on Thursday.

 

Canada Railways Lock Out Workers as Talks Fail, Snarling Trade

• Moody’s Corp estimated C$341 million per day impact to Canada
• Ports and businesses from carmakers to forestry depend on rail

Canada’s two biggest railways, accounting for almost 80% of the national network, shut down early Thursday after talks with a union failed, immediately blocking arteries of North American supply chains that carry about C$1 billion ($740 million) per day in trade.

More than 9,000 employees at Canadian National Railway Co. and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. were locked out after a deadline elapsed early Thursday. The two companies were unable to reach a deal with the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference after the union voted in favor of a strike over scheduling and ways to mitigate worker fatigue.

In a statement, a spokesperson for Canadian National said it has consistently made offers to improve wages and rest time, including a final offer to avoid a lockout. “The Teamsters have not shown any urgency or desire to reach a deal that is good for employees, the company and the economy,” the spokesperson said.

Union president Paul Boucher said the main obstacles to reaching an agreement were not union proposals but the companies’ demands. “Their sole focus is boosting their bottom line, even if it means jeopardizing the entire economy,” he said in a statement.

A Canadian Pacific spokesperson said the union continues to make unrealistic demands that would fundamentally impair the railway’s ability to serve its customers. “We fully understand and appreciate what this work stoppage means for Canadians and our economy,” the spokesperson said in a statement.

The stoppage may cost Canada as much as C$341 million per day, according to a Wednesday estimate from ratings agency Moody’s Corp.

As the deadline approached, business groups and rail-dependent industries from automakers to agriculture had issued dire warnings about the economic damage, which could mean plants cutting shifts or shuttering, as well as longer term injury to Canada’s trading relationships and reputation for reliability, following other recent disruptions to its transportation networks.

Shippers had already diverted some cargo to the US ahead of the strike. Certain crucial major Canadian commodities like fertilizer, grain and lumber need rail to move and can’t be transferred onto trucks at scale. The stoppages will also cause upset for Canadian city commuters.

US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said Monday that his department had been monitoring the situation closely and tracking the flow of vital goods to the US.

It’s the first time in decades workers at both companies walked out simultaneously, and the lead-up prompted urgent questions for the federal government. Labor Minister Steven MacKinnon denied Canadian National’s request to impose binding arbitration on Aug. 15, and encouraged parties to reach a deal at the bargaining table. The minister also met with the parties and federal mediators on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government is propped up by a deal with the pro-labor New Democratic Party, whose leader Jagmeet Singh had said he would oppose government measures to intervene on behalf of employers against workers.

 

Indonesia to implement B40 palm oil biodiesel on Jan 1, 2025, official says

Indonesia plans to implement biodiesel containing a mandatory 40% blend of palm oil-based fuel from Jan. 1 next year, senior energy ministry official Eniya Listiani Dewi said on Thursday.

Indonesia currently has a 35% mandatory blend for palm oil-based biodiesel, known as B35.

The government had previously flagged a plan to increase the biodiesel blend to 40% next year, without specifying a start date.

“There is no issue in terms of supply volume and other aspects, so we are ready for a mandatory (implementation),” Eniya told Reuters.

When implemented, the B40 mandate could increase biodiesel consumption to up to 16 million kilolitres (KL) next year from a forecast of 13 million KL this year, the energy ministry has estimated.

 

Germany’s Grain Harvest Suffered From Heavy Rains, Farmers Say

Germany’s grain harvest this year is expected to decline to 39.3m tons, compared with 42m tons last year, primarily because of heavy rainfall, farming lobby group DBV said.

• Crop balance sheet includes:
  • Wheat at 18m tons
  • Barley at 8.9m tons
  • Corn at 4.4m tons
  • Rapeseed at 3.7m tons
• “The severely below-average grain harvest, which is even below the 40 million-ton mark, once again shows the clearly noticeable effects of climate change and failed legislative requirements,” Joachim Rukwied, president of the German Farmers’ Association, or DBV, said in the statement
  • In addition, a lack of sunshine and frost damage to rapeseed, orchards and vineyards at flowering time presented “enormous challenges” this year, he said

 

Ukraine’s farm ministry proposes limiting 2024/25 wheat export to 16.2 mln T

Ukraine’s agriculture ministry has proposed limiting wheat exports in the 2024/25 July-June season to 16.2 million metric tons, acting farm minister Taras Vysotskiy said on Wednesday.

He said the figure was still being discussed in the annual memorandum between the government and traders.

The government and traders annually sign a memorandum in which the officials promise to maintain the existing terms of trade and not restrict exports within the agreed volume. Traders in their turn undertake not to exceed this volume.

Vysotskiy said the 16.2 million tons export limit reflected the balance of supply and demand in the 2024/25 season, given that the wheat harvest was 21.8 million tons.

He also said that the ministry sees the 2024 corn crop at 25 million tons, more than 2 million tons less than the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s assessment in its August forecast.

Ukrainian officials have said the harvest has been limited by heatwave conditions as well as the impact of war on available farmland.

The USDA report shows Ukraine is expected to harvest 27.2 million metric tons of corn, while domestic analysts and brokers anticipate 24-to-25 million tons.

 

 

 

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