Global Ag News for Aug 21.24

TOP HEADLINES

Argentina quarantines grains ship over suspected mpox case

Argentine authorities have quarantined a cargo ship in the Parana River near the inland grains port of Rosario over a suspected case of mpox onboard, an industry official said on Tuesday.

Fernando Morales, president of industry body the Argentine Naval League, said that a Liberian-flagged ship set to pick up soy cargo had been ordered to drop anchor in the river while a test on a crew member was carried out.

“A crew member with fever and weakness was taken to a hospital in San Nicolas. There they carried out some tests and they say that in principle it could be mpox,” Morales said, adding that the diagnosis was not yet confirmed.

The World Health Organization last week declared mpox a global public health emergency for the second time in two years as a new variant of the virus spread rapidly in Africa. A day later, a case of the clade 1b variant was confirmed in Sweden, the first sign of its spread outside Africa.

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1/4 in SRW, up 1/2 in HRW, up 2 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/2; Soybeans up 5; Soymeal up $2.10; Soyoil up 0.40.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 4 in SRW, up 6 3/4 in HRW, down 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 7; Soybeans up 23 3/4; Soymeal up $8.20; Soyoil up 0.92.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 4 1/4 in SRW, down 4 in HRW, up 7 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans down 41 1/2; Soymeal down $5.30; Soyoil down 2.72.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 15.2% in SRW, down 14.8% in HRW, down 18.0% in HRS; Corn is down 19.9%; Soybeans down 25.6%; Soymeal down 18.4%; Soyoil down 14.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 24) Soybeans down 7 yuan; Soymeal up 1; Soyoil up 38; Palm oil up 62; Corn up 4 — Malaysian Palm is up 39.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 39 ringgit (+1.05%) at 3754.

There were changes in registrations (-285 Soyoil). Registration total: 424 SRW Wheat contracts; 6 Oats; 15 Corn; 10 Soybeans; 521 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 20 were: SRW Wheat down 2,375 contracts, HRW Wheat down 3,449, Corn down 832, Soybeans down 3,689, Soymeal down 2,713, Soyoil down 760.

 

Northern Plains: Multiple systems will bring scattered showers every day for the next week, which may bring some unneeded rainfall to mature wheat areas and overly wet corn and soybean areas. Loss of quality and delays to harvest will be possible for wheat.

Central/Southern Plains: It should remain hot in Texas while other areas get a bit of a break, but the High Plains will likely stay hot as well. Temperatures will start to rise late this week and likely last through the weekend, which may cause stress. Though temperatures are forecast to relax next week as a system moves through, the prospect for precipitation is low and conditions could remain stressful for filling corn and soybeans.

Midwest: It continues to be much drier this week, although temperatures are mild. Temperatures will rise this weekend, but a system or two could follow behind the heat and bring some showers through next week. Models are not consistent on the precipitation forecast. A slight drop in temperatures will be possible with the systems as well. If precipitation does not develop, we could see some stress for the remainder of filling corn and soybeans.

Canadian Prairies: Above-normal temperatures are in the forecast through the end of the month. Disturbances moving through the region will bring additional showers through this week and possibly next week. Maturing wheat and canola could use some dry conditions for harvest. The rain could be heavy in small locations, which could reduce quality and delay harvest.

Black Sea: Drought continues to increase across eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia. Other areas in the region have better conditions for filling corn and sunflowers. Limited showers will be possible this week across the west and north, but leave drought areas dry. Temperatures remain hot and stressful as well. Constant heat and dryness has been damaging to crops in much of the region this season.

Australia: Scattered showers moved through western and southern areas over the weekend, keeping soil moisture favorable in these areas. A few systems moving through the Southern Ocean will continue to bring showers to these areas this week. Northeastern areas got some needed rain last week, but will be drier this week. Temperatures will stay warm this week, increasing development of wheat and canola, but possibly drying out areas in the northeast a bit.

 

The player sheet for Aug. 20 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,500 corn, buyers of 1,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,500 soymeal, and buyers of 1,500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: Exporters sold 132,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China and 239,492 metric tons to Mexico for shipment in the 2024/25 marketing year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
• WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase around 75,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat.
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 81,442 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that will close late on Aug. 22.
• CORN, SOYMEAL, FEED BARLEY TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, 40,000 tons of soymeal and 35,000 tons of feed barley
• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender seeking 120,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat, European traders said. A new tender is expected in the coming days, they said.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: A group of South Korean flour mills has issued a tender to purchase about 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Aug. 21.

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Aug. 16 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.066m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 23.339m bbl vs 23.354m a week ago

 

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Up 4.1%

July placements onto feedlots seen rising y/y to 1.67m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of ten analysts.

• Estimates range from +1.9% to +5.9% y/y change
• Feedlot herd as of Aug. 1 seen rising by 0.1% y/y to 11.07m head
• Marketings seen rising 8.3% y/y

 

CROP TOUR: Indiana Corn Yields Seen 9.4% Below USDA’s Outlook

Corn yields in Indiana are estimated at 187.5 bu/acre based on 191 fields sampled, according to Pro Farmer Crop Tour data Tuesday.

• That’s below the US Department of Agriculture’s Aug. 12 forecast for a 207 bu/acre
• It’s above last year’s crop tour average of 180.9 bu/acre and the three-year average of 184.1 bu/acre
• Indiana soybeans are seen averaging 1,409 pods in a 3-by-3-foot square, based on 190 samples
  • That’s above 1,310 pods last year and the three-year average of 1,238.6
• NOTE: The crop tour, which runs through Thursday, doesn’t project soy yields

 

Central Indiana Fields Have Elevated Yield Potential

Corn yield potential was above average in central and west-central Indiana as ample rains throughout the growing season benefited fields, according to scouts on the second day of the annual Pro Farmer Crop Tour data Tuesday.

• Yields were estimated at 193.3 bu/acre after 10 stops on one route through Tipton, Howard, Carroll, Cass, Pulaski, Jasper and Newton counties
  • That’s above Indiana’s state average on the crop tour last year of 180.9 bu/acre and the three-year average of 184.1 bu/acre
  • Tuesday’s crop sampling had a high of 230.7 bushels in Cass County and a low of 140.5 bushels in Pulaski County
• Fields were variable in quality, with a recent lack of rain in some areas prompting the browning on some leaves toward the bottom of corn plants; tar spot fungus also showed up in two fields in Howard County
• “Plant health is what I’ve noticed,” says crop scout Mike Berdo, a farmer from Iowa
  • “One field looks like it’s ready to burn up and the next one is as green as a gourd”

SOYBEANS

• Soybean pod counts averaged 1,379 pods in a 3-by-3-foot square
  • That compares to 1,310 pods last year and the three-year average of 1,238.6
• “They had good rain when they needed it” and timely planting, says crop scout Luke Mullet, who farms in northern Indiana
  • Pods counts are “very, very consistent, much better than what I saw yesterday”
• NOTE: The crop tour will make state-wide Indiana estimates later Tuesday, with full crop tour results due Thursday

 

CROP TOUR: Nebraska Corn, Soy Yields Seen Up From Last Year

Corn yields in Nebraska averaged 173.3 bushels per acre, according to 399 samples taken Tuesday by participants on the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour.

• That compares with the 2023 Nebraska tour average of 167.2 bu/acre; three-year avg of 169.4 bu/acre
  • Crops have benefited from abundant rain and mild summer temperatures, according to Jay Merryman, a retired farmer participating in one of the scouts
  • Says crops are relatively immature for this time of the season, with corn kernels having the potential to gain more weight through harvest
• Soybean pod count in 3-by-3-foot square averaged 1,172 pods, according to 376 samples
  • That’s up from 1,160 pods last year and the 1,150 three-year avg
• NOTE: The crop tour does not project soybean yields

 

India July Oilmeals Exports Rise to 451,794 Tons

India’s oilmeals exports rose to 451,794 tons in July from 335,196 tons in June, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• Rapeseed meal exports rose to 234,507 tons from 159,447 tons in June
• Soymeal exports rose to 195,162 tons from 152,351 tons in June
• Castorseed meal exports rose to 22,125 tons from 21,388 tons in June

 

SovEcon Raises Russia Wheat Crop Forecast; Cuts Corn and Barley

SovEcon raised its Russia wheat crop forecast for the 2024 season to 83.3m tons from 82.9m tons, it said in an email.

• The upward revision reflects yields close to record levels in Siberia and the Urals
• Wet weather in those areas may complicate harvesting and lower quality, unharvested crops should be near average levels: managing director Andrey Sizov
• Corn crop forecast was cut to 11.9m tons from 13.4m tons, the lowest level since 2018
• That’s due to adverse weather with southern regions such as Krasnodar seeing close to record low yields
• The barley forecast was cut to 18.2m tons from 19.3m tons due to lower planting area and yields

 

‘Real issues’ outstanding in talks to avert Canada rail strike, says minister

Canada’s two main rail companies and the Teamsters union are “doing the work necessary” to reach an agreement and avert a looming strike but “real issues” are outstanding, federal Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon told Reuters on Tuesday.

MacKinnon was speaking after talks with Canadian National Railway, which like Canadian Pacific Kansas City says it will lock out workers early on Thursday unless a deal is reached.

 

Argentina’s next corn crop seen covering 17% less farmland amid pest fears

Argentina’s upcoming 2024/25 corn crop is seen covering 6.3 million hectares, down 17% compared to the previous cycle as pest and weather concerns mount, the Buenos Aires grains exchange announced on Tuesday.

The smaller estimate – the exchange’s first forecast for the 2024/25 season – comes amid fears that the crop will be hurt by the impact of a costly leafhopper insect plague.

The insects, which spread a stunt disease that damages corn, had caused the exchange to trim 10 million tons off its production forecast for the prior 2023/2024 corn crop.

“The main and most worrying (reason for the decline) has to do with the growing uncertainty about the impact of the virus and bacteria complex associated with Dalbulus maidis,” the leafhopper’s scientific name, the exchange said in a report.

Argentina, the world’s third-largest corn exporter, also expects planting to be impacted by lower-than-normal rainfall as a result of the La Nina climate phenomenon.

The exchange noted a decrease in the grain’s profitability, due to a drop in the price of corn, as another reason for the smaller area.

 

Brazil Corn Exports Seen Reaching 7 Million Tns In August Versus 6.68 Million Tns Projected In The Previous Week – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 8.16 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 8.18 MILLION TNS PROJECTED IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.39 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 2.24 MILLION TNS PROJECTED IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 7 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 6.68 MILLION TNS PROJECTED IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

Brazil’s Soy Crusher Caramuru And Biocen Announce Partnership To Build Corn Ethanol Plant In Mato Grosso

• BRAZIL’S SOY CRUSHER CARAMURU AND BIOCEN ANNOUNCE PARTNERSHIP TO BUILD CORN ETHANOL PLANT IN MATO GROSSO – PRESS STATEMENT
• BRAZIL’S CARAMURU, BIOCEN SAY PLANT TO HAVE INITIAL PROCESSING CAPACITY OF 605,000 TONS OF CORN PER YEAR

 

Indonesia July Palm Oil Exports Fall 27.7% M/m: Intertek

Indonesia’s palm oil exports fell 27.7% m/m in July versus +58.8% in June, according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Palm oil exports fell to 2.022m tons from 2.797m tons in June
• Crude palm oil shipments fell to 211,219 tons from 538,755 tons in June
• RBD palm olein shipments fell to 751,261 tons from 1.090m tons in June
• RBD palm oil shipments fell to 409,397 tons from 518,047 tons in June
• Palm oil sales to European Union rose to 365,092 tons from 297,531 tons in June
• Palm oil sales to India fell to 548,597 tons from 1.099m tons in June
• Palm oil sales to China fell to 411,755 tons from 483,529 tons in June

 

Ukraine grain exports jump to 6 mln T so far 2024/25, says ministry

Ukraine’s grain exports in the 2024/25 July-June season had reached 6 million metric tons as of Aug. 21, up from 3.6 million tons by the same date of the previous season, agriculture ministry data showed on Wednesday.

The volume included 2.8 million tons of wheat, 2.2 million tons of corn and 1 million tons of barley.

The ministry said traders have exported 2.34 million tons of grain so far in August, up from 1.33 million in the same period last year.

The ministry has said that the 2024 combined grain and oilseed crop could fall to 77 million tons, including 56 million tons of grain.

Ukraine’s grain exports in the 2023/24 marketing season rose to about 51 million tons from 49.2 million a year earlier.

 

China’s Beef Demand Poised for Smallest Growth in a Decade: USDA

Beef consumption in China — the world’s No. 2 market — is set to rise next year by the least in a decade as its economy slows, according to the latest report from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, bucking a streak of exponential demand growth for the premium meat.

China is seen to consume 11.712 million tons of beef in 2025, up 0.25% from this year’s forecast, as a sustained economic downturn puts pressure “on the hotel, restaurant, and catering industries as well as on retail operations that market beef,” FAS said in the report.

Demand for low-end beef is seen to grow amid a “consumption downgrading,” as catering and institutional food operations use lower-priced or lower-value cuts, it said.

Economic headwinds will also curb China’s intake of pork, the country’s favorite meat, according to FAS, adding to the bleak growth outlook of the world’s second-largest economy.

China’s pork consumption is expected to fall 2% in 2025, according to FAS, as a slew of negative economic factors seen in 2024 — such as high unemployment rates, restaurant closures in smaller cities and austere measures for official and business banquets — continue to impact demand.

Still, shifts in dietary habits are the main factor pushing down pork consumption, it added.

 

South African Corn-Export Forecast Raised in Boon for Neighbors

• Agricultural chamber raises estimate 28% to 1.85 million tons
• Increase will ease pressure on neighbors hit by El Niño

South Africa’s Agricultural Business Chamber raised its forecast for the country’s corn exports as local consumers use more low-cost grain imported from South America and free up tonnage for drought-hit neighbors.

The country will likely export 1.85 million tons of corn in the 12-month marketing season to the end of April, Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the chamber known as Agbiz, said Tuesday in a note sent to Bloomberg. While that’s up 28% from its June forecast of 1.44 million tons, it would still be the least in five years as South Africa’s own crop plunged by a fifth.

The projected increase may go some way toward easing supply shortages in countries such as Zimbabwe and Zambia, which have seen their own crops decimated by a drought triggered by the El Niño weather pattern. Imports from South America will go to South Africa’s coastal poultry producers.

“This leaves more maize in the northern regions for exports to the northern countries,” Sihlobo said in a response to queries.

White corn, used primarily for human consumption in southern Africa, is expected to account for about 1.2 million tons of the exported grain, while the balance would be yellow corn, he said.

South Africa has already exported 606,000 tons of corn since the beginning of May, with about 66% of that being of the white variety, according to the South African Grain Information Service. More than half of that was shipped to Zimbabwe, which has seen its crop fall by about two-thirds.

South Africa is likely to import 350,000 tons of yellow corn in the marketing season, with 135,000 tons having already arrived from Argentina and Brazil, Sihlobo said.

Argentine yellow corn trades at about $188 a ton, compared with about $236 on the South African Futures Exchange for local grain. It’s often cheaper to ship corn to South Africa’s ports than to send it to buyers by road from northern parts of the country.

 

Australian farmers increasingly concerned about government policy, poll finds

A rising number of Australian farmers are disgruntled with the government’s climate and agricultural policies, a survey showed on Wednesday, as measures to protect the environment draw farmers’ ire in Europe and some other places.

Australia is one of the world’s biggest agricultural exporters, shipping nearly $50 billion worth of products as varied as beef, wheat and wine in the 2022-23 financial year.

Since coming to power in 2022, the country’s Labor government has passed legislation that will ban exports of live sheep and restrict the use of water for farming in some areas.

It has also sought to raise more money from farmers for biosecurity and pushed ahead with renewable energy projects in rural areas, causing anger in the farming sector.

Seventy-three percent of 1,026 farmers surveyed across the country said government policies were harming the industry, up from 54% a year ago, the poll by the National Farmers’ Federation (NFF) and communications agency Seftons found.

Eighty percent said the government did not understand or listen to farmers, up from 41% last year, with only 10% saying the government had a positive plan to grow the farm sector.

Half of respondents thought Australia’s food and fibre production would increase over the next decade, down from 56% a year ago.

“The results are unsurprising. Critical issues like the live sheep export ban, biosecurity tax and water buybacks have weighed heavily on farmers,” said NFF President David Jochinke.

“Farmers are frustrated,” he said. “They feel they aren’t being heard and they are being steamrolled by harmful policies – that appear to be driven by activist groups or politicians, not farmers.”

Earlier this year, farmers in numerous European countries staged protests over a range of issues including excessive environmental rules.

 

 

 

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