Global Ag News for Aug 12.24

TOP HEADLINES

Brazil’s second corn harvest almost done, AgRural says

Brazil’s 2024 second corn harvest is almost finished, as farmers in the country’s center-south region have completed 98% of work in the fields as of last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday.

Harvesting was up from 95% the previous week and 71% a year earlier. In the key state of Mato Grosso, farmers were done with the second corn harvest, while they were still advancing on the last plots of other states in the center-south region, according to AgRural. The largest areas still to be harvested are in the north of Parana state.

“As crops are already well advanced, no losses are expected, even with a cold weather wave that started over the weekend,” AgRural added in a statement.

Brazil’s second corn harvest, which represents about 75% of national production each year, is planted after soybeans are harvested on the same fields. It is mainly exported in the second half of the year and competes with U.S. supplies in global markets.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 6 in SRW, down 3 3/4 in HRW, down 2 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans down 15; Soymeal down $2.80; Soyoil down 0.56.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 12 3/4 in SRW, down 10 1/2 in HRW, up 3 in HRS; Corn is up 4; Soybeans down 34 1/4; Soymeal down $8.60; Soyoil down 1.26.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 3 1/2 in SRW, down 6 in HRW, up 8 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans down 51 1/2; Soymeal down $13.90; Soyoil down 2.41.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 15.6% in SRW, down 15.1% in HRW, down 18.1% in HRS; Corn is down 19.2%; Soybeans down 21.8%; Soymeal down 17.5%; Soyoil down 13.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans down 15 yuan; Soymeal down 51; Soyoil down 102; Palm oil down 80; Corn down 5 — Malaysian Palm is down 19.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 19 ringgit (-0.51%) at 3689.

 

There were changes in registrations (-21 Soyoil). Registration total: 424 SRW Wheat contracts; 6 Oats; 15 Corn; 10 Soybeans; 925 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 12 were: SRW Wheat down 7,866 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,619, Corn up 11,845, Soybeans up 3,049, Soymeal up 10,522, Soyoil up 10,119.

 

August Deliveries

• Soybeans
  • 8/12: 0
  • Total:  123
• Soybean Oil
  • 8/12: 40
  • Total: 1,476
• Soybean Meal
  • Total: 0

 

Northern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south through Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Midwest: West: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday. East: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near normal Saturday-Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for Aug. 12 had funds: net sellers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 12,000 corn, sellers of 11,000 soybeans, sellers of 7,500 soymeal, and sellers of 4,500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• EGYPTIAN WHEAT PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer said it bought 280,000 metric tons of wheat in an international tender on Monday, falling short of its target of 3.8 million tons. The General Authority for Supply Commodities had bet big on falling wheat prices, launching its biggest-ever single tender, but was unable to meet its target largely due to higher-than-expected prices in the tender, traders said. Around 102 offers were submitted by 15 suppliers in the tender, albeit at a premium due to longer-than-expected shipping periods and unattractive payment terms, traders said earlier.
• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 300,000 metric tons of soybeans to “unknown” destinations, of which 100,000 tons is for delivery in the current 2023/24 marketing year and 200,000 tons is for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year that begins Sept. 1, 2024.
• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 165,000 metric tons of corn to “unknown” destinations for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year that begins Sept. 1, 2024.
• DURUM WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to purchase a nominal 50,000 metric tons of durum wheat.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

TODAY

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Conditions 67% G/E, Soybeans 68%

Highlights from the report:

• Corn 67% G/E vs 67% last week, and 59% a year ago
• Soybeans 68% G/E vs 68% last week, and 59% a year ago
• Spring wheat 72% G/E vs 74% last week, and 42% a year ago
• Spring wheat harvest 18% G/E vs 6% last week, and 20% a year ago
• Winter wheat harvest 93% vs 88% last week, and 91% a year ago
• Cotton 46% G/E vs 45% last week, and 36% a year ago
• Sorghum 51% G/E vs 47% last week, and 54% a year ago

 

US Inspected 975k Tons of Corn for Export, 327k of Soybeans

In week ending Aug. 8, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Wheat: 649k tons vs 470k the previous wk, 269k a yr ago
• Corn: 975k tons vs 1,272k the previous wk, 459k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 327k tons vs 267k the previous wk, 418k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Aug. 8

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Aug. 8 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Germany-bound shipments made up 85k tons of the 327k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Brazil and Philippines led in wheat

 

Brazil Soybean, Corn Crop Survey Before Conab’s Report

The following shows results of a Bloomberg News survey of as many as seven analysts for Brazil’s soybean and corn crops. Conab, the Brazilian national supply company, is scheduled to release its latest estimates on Aug. 13 at 9am local time.

 

Argentina Calls for Mediation Between Soy-Crush Workers, Traders

Argentina’s federal government called for a 15-day period of talks between soy-crush workers and agricultural traders including Cargill, Bunge and LDC, according to a Labor Department document.

• The talks were mandated from Monday morning after being requested by the traders
• Workers who’d been on strike must return to their posts during the mediation
• Ports and terminals affected by the strike will resume their operations progressively, according to shipping agency Nabsa

 

Argentina grains shipments at ports normalizing after strike suspension

Grains shipments out of Argentine ports are normalizing after the government ordered workers to suspend a nearly week-long strike earlier on Monday, the head of the nation’s ports chamber said.

The government sent an order to two oilseed workers unions to suspend a strike for 15 days. So far, one union has said it will comply with the order. The strike kicked off last Tuesday and had paralyzed exports from the nation’s top grain ports as workers demanded their salaries stay ahead of high inflation.

“Once conciliation has been ordered, the terminals call in their employees and they get back to work according to their scheduled shifts,” ports chamber director Guillermo Wade told Reuters.

The San Lorenzo Department Oilseed Workers and Employees Union earlier said that it had received the government order and would comply with calls for mandatory talks.

“We abide by the reconciliation (talks). Little by little and in an orderly manner we will lift the measure,” said Martin Morales, secretary for the union, referring to the strike.

The Federation of Oilseed Industry Workers, the other union on strike, did not immediately reply to a request for comment. Unions previously said that they had failed to hear from grains producers to negotiate. Morales added that an initial meeting between the parties was scheduled for Wednesday at 11 a.m. local time (1400 GMT).

The oilseed industry chamber said in a statement that it had requested government intervention, citing the economic impact of the strike and stalled talks with the unions. The strike mainly affected terminals located north of Rosario along the Parana River, where more than 80% of Argentina’s agricultural and agro-industrial exports are shipped. More than 40 ships were delayed by the strike, according to the Rosario grains exchange.

Argentina is a major grains producer and is a top exporter of soybean oil and soybean meal. The farming economy heavily relies on the foreign-exchange funds brought in by grains exports, as the government works to shore up scarce central bank reserves.

 

Brazil’s 2024/25 Soy Sales Reach 18.2% Of Expected Output – Safras

• BRAZIL’S 2023/24 SOY SALES REACH 77.5% OF EXPECTED OUTPUT VERSUS 75.6% A YEAR AGO
• BRAZIL’S 2024/25 SOY SALES REACH 18.2% OF EXPECTED OUTPUT VERSUS 13.9% A YEAR AGO
• BRAZIL’S 2024/25 COFFEE SALES REACH 40% OF EXPECTED OUTPUT VS 41% A YEAR AGO

 

Brazil C-S Winter Corn Harvest 92.6% Completed: Safras

That compares with 70.8% a year earlier, and a five-year average of 59,8%, according to a report from consulting firm Safras & Mercado.

Harvest is 89.4% completed in Parana area, 76.5% in Sao Paulo, 94.2% in Mato Grosso do Sul, 90.7% in Goias, 98.8% in Mato Grosso and 57.8% in Minas Gerais

 

Freezing temperatures hit wheat in Argentina’s western agricultural zone again

Below-freezing temperatures in recent days thrashed the wheat crop in Argentina’s western agricultural regions, where the crop is already suffering from a lack of rain and extreme cold spells, the Rosario grains exchange said on Monday.

Argentina is a major wheat exporter and the exchange trimmed its estimate for the 2024/25 wheat area last month by 2.9% to 6.7 million hectares due to the weather.

“The coldest temperatures were seen in the west of the (agricultural) zone, where there have not been rains recently, putting the crop in a much more vulnerable situation,” the exchange said, noting lows hovered between -9 to -4 degrees Celsius (16 to 25 Fahrenheit).

The western agricultural zone includes the western part of the Buenos Aires province and southeast Cordoba. No rain is expected there over the next seven days either.

“Not only is it key that the western region receive rains for the wheat crop, but the whole region is hoping for significant amounts of rain before the end of August to boost plans to sow corn,” the exchange said.

The Rosario exchange has not yet given estimates for the upcoming 2024/25 corn crop.

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: High demand sustains wheat bran prices in Brazil

Quotations of wheat bran are moving up in Brazil, sustained by the firm demand in the Brazilian market, especially from the animal feeding sector. This scenario, in turn, has pressed down wheat flour values, since the increase of processing activities to produce wheat bran results in a surplus of flour.

From August 5-9, values of wheat bran in bulk rose 2% compared to that in the period before.

WHEAT GRAINS – Liquidity is low because of the lower demand. Consumers are unwilling to close deals of large amounts due to the beginning of the new crop.

Many wheat growers are focused on crop activities, on the development of crops and on weather conditions. Moreover, players are concerned with the national productivity, due to unfavorable weather conditions during the development period.

According to data from Cepea, between August 2 and 9, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) downed 0.16% in Rio Grande do Sul and 1.4% in Santa Catarina, but were stable in Paraná. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations dropped 0.16% in Rio Grande do Sul and 1.61% in São Paulo, but remained stable in Santa Catarina and in Paraná. Dollar quotations decreased 3.5% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.512 on August 9.

The rainfall registered in Rio Grande do Sul favored crops. In Paraná, the harvesting has started this week, reaching 1% of the total, according to data from Seab/Deral.

 

Analyst ASAP Agri lifts 2024/25 Ukraine wheat export forecast by 12.3%

The ASAP Agri consultancy has increased its forecast for the 2024/25 July-June Ukrainian wheat exports by 12.3% to 14.6 million metric tons, it said on Tuesday.

• The Ukrainian consultancy revised its forecast from 13 million tons a month earlier due to a higher-than-expected wheat harvest.
• Ukraine could harvest 21.3 million tons of wheat this year, two million tons higher than it expected in July, the consultancy said in a report.
• APK-Inform said on Monday it increased its wheat crop outlook to 20.8 million tons from 19.99 million tons, and lifted wheat export forecast in 2024/25 to 13.4 million tons from 12.7 million tons.
• UGA, the Ukrainian grain traders union, saw the wheat crop at 19.8 million tons and exports at 13 million tons.
• Ukraine’s agriculture ministry gave no forecast for exports of 2024/25 wheat, but said farmers had harvested 20.9 million tons of wheat from 97% of the sown area, as of Aug. 9.

 

Egypt’s Wheat Purchase Falls Far Short of Bumper Tender Target

Egypt’s state buyer bought less than a tenth of the wheat it had targeted in a bumper tender, highlighting the challenges of securing big supplies months in advance.

The country’s General Authority for Supply Commodities bought 280,000 tons of wheat from Ukraine and Bulgaria for October and November delivery in a tender that closed Monday, the state buyer said. It had been looking to buy as much as 3.8 million tons of wheat for delivery ranging from October to April.

The tender for such large volumes over a much longer period than usual had marked a new approach for the world’s top wheat buyer, and followed a recent cabinet overhaul aimed at controlling inflation and amid rising tensions in the region. Although inflation has retreated from a record last year, it’s still over 25% and piling pain on consumers.

 

US 2024 Corn Prevented Planting 2.67M Acres, Soy 775,000 Acres

The following is from the USDA Farm Service Agency’s August report.

• Corn up by 1.2m acres vs 2023
• Overall, prevent planting 4.7m acres vs 3.6m acres in 2023

 

 

 

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