Global Ag News For Aug 1.2025

TOP HEADLINES

World’s Wheat Heavyweights Are Exporting Grain at Just a Trickle

Top wheat shippers, including Russia, Ukraine and the European Union, got off to a slow start to the new season as exports were curbed by adverse weather and stockpiling by farmers.

Russian shipments in July, when sales usually boom as harvests roll in, are set to drop by 30% from a year earlier, according to an estimate from consultancy IKAR. Ukraine is only exporting at about a third of 2024’s pace, and the European Union is also shipping less.

The sluggish flows have stabilized Paris wheat futures and boosted spot prices at Black Sea ports in Romania and Bulgaria by an average of 8% last month. Spot prices in the French port of Rouen gained 2%.

Together, Russia, Ukraine and the EU account for nearly half of global wheat trade, making their exports a key focus of the market.

“The concern is that reduced Black Sea availability for now means reduced competition on export markets, allowing more price support than might otherwise be the case,” said Mike Verdin, a consultant at CRM AgriCommodities. “Russia is usually a price maker at this time of year especially.”

Rains have delayed harvesting in both Russia’s Rostov region and the northwest of Krasnodar, limiting crop availability at ports. Exports from the country so far this year have declined to around 2 million tons, according to analyst estimates, following several years of rapid early-season shipments that led eventually to the introduction of quotas.

Growing regions in Ukraine have also been impacted, leaving farmers short of grain to ship.

“They have simply run out of older stocks after strong exports in the previous year and are now facing lower wheat yields,” said Alex Lissitsa, head of the board of directors of agricultural business IMC.

In one of the EU’s top producers — Romania — the recent uptick in prices hasn’t been enough to persuade farmers to sell, with Paris wheat futures still down 17% this year. That’s led to a standoff, as traders wait for a resurgence in Russian supplies to push prices lower, according to Gabriel Razi, an analyst at Romanian grain market consultancy AgroBrane.

The return of stronger Russian flows seems just a question of timing.

“Following an abnormally weak start, we expect Russian wheat exports to accelerate in the coming months, which could increase pressure on global prices,” said Andrey Sizov, head of consultancy SovEcon.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 3/4 in SRW, down 2 1/2 in HRW, down 2 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/2; Soybeans down 1/4; Soymeal up $0.60; Soyoil down 0.26.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 17 3/4 in SRW, down 2 3/4 in HRW, down 9 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 3 3/4; Soybeans down 32; Soymeal down $5.00; Soyoil down 1.50.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.6% in SRW, down 6.3% in HRW, down 3.4% in HRS; Corn is down 13.8%; Soybeans down 3.6%; Soymeal down 14.8%; Soyoil up 37.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans down 11 yuan; Soymeal down 2; Soyoil up 22; Palm oil down 18; Corn down 8 — Malaysian Palm is up 15.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 15 ringgit (+0.35%) at 4245.

There were changes in registrations (110 Soybeans). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 761 Soybeans; 697 Soyoil; 1,876 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 31 were: SRW Wheat up 10,362 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,401, Corn up 11,766, Soybeans down 5,469, Soymeal down 2,175, Soyoil down 7,928.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 01 AUG 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Cooler weather across the U.S. this week, turning warmer next week, with ongoing wet conditions in Cetral Plains and East
• SOUTH AMERICA: Argentina’s Pampas remain wet, while southern Brazil is expected to experience intermittent wet spells over the next week
• EUROPE: Cooler-than-normal in Central Europe this week, turning warmer next week, with ongoing wet spells in Europe
• ASIA: Asia stays cooler than normal, except the East with mixed temperatures; heavy rain likely over Southeast and North and South India next week
• TELECONNECTIONS: The MJO phases 7-8 support stormy weather in the Western Pacific

 

MIXED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS EUROPE AND THE BLACK SEA REGIONS

What to Watch:

• Mixed temperatures in Europe & Black Sea region
• Wet weather may support corn development

  

Northern Plains: Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move through the region on a daily basis through next week, though organized severe weather is less likely. Showers will be scattered and not widespread, but soil moisture will continue to build, favorable for corn and soybeans, but not for wheat, which will be maturing going into August. Some areas of heavy rain could degrade quality.

Central/Southern Plains: A front continues to slowly drop through the Southern Plains over the next couple of days, with showers waning as it goes through. Temperatures are falling significantly behind the front and will be cool into next week. Showers will return in a couple of waves this weekend and next week, as mostly favorable conditions continue for corn and soybeans.

Midwest: A slow-moving front continues to push through with more scattered showers and a significant drop in temperatures on Thursday. Areas of severe weather and heavy rain have been common as this front has moved through, keeping most areas quite moist. Cooler temperatures continue into next week, but will rise by late next week. Precipitation chances will likely return next week. Conditions are still highly favorable for corn and soybeans despite the recent heat and severe weather.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: A stronger front will move into the region Thursday and Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms and a drop in temperatures closer to normal going into the weekend. The front may stall in the region where showers and thunderstorms would continue into early next week, at least for southern areas. Maturing crops are finding drier conditions in which to do so, but stress at the end of the life cycle could have been high as crop conditions have been falling here recently.

Canadian Prairies: Scattered showers return on Friday in Alberta, spreading eastward over the weekend with another system moving through. Additional showers will move through the region in a couple of waves next week as well. Whether scattered showers develop or not, it will likely be too late to help with more mature areas across the south, or damaged areas across the north.

 

The player sheet for 7/31 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,000 corn, sellers of 7,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,500 soymeal, and sellers of 7,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN, WHEAT SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 100,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Colombia, 140,000 tons to South Korea and 136,000 tons to undisclosed destinations. In addition, the agency confirmed sales of 100,000 metric tons of U.S. hard red winter wheat to Nigeria. All the sales were for shipment in the 2025/26 marketing year.
• FEED BARLEY SALE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has provisionally bought an estimated 225,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender on Thursday
• FAILED FEED WHEAT TENDER: A group of importers in Thailand is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in an international tender for about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat which closed on Wednesday.
• FAILED CORN TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender this week seeking about 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn. 

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 45,200 metric tons of rice to be sourced from Vietnam and Thailand.

 

 

 

TODAY

Trump increases tariff on Canada to 35%, White House says

U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday increasing tariffs on Canadian goods to 35% from 25%, the White House said.

The new rates goes into effect on August 1.

“In response to Canada’s continued inaction and retaliation, President Trump has found it necessary to increase the tariff on Canada from 25% to 35% to effectively address the existing emergency,” the White House said.

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending July 24, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Mexico with 295k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Unknown Buyers with 545k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Unknown Buyers with 235k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending July 24, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 23.1k tons of the 39.6k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

 

Rains improve moisture reserves for Argentina wheat, grains exchange says

Recent rainfall in Argentina has improved soil moisture reserves for the country’s 2025/26 wheat crop, with nearly all of the planted area now in normal to optimal condition, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday.

Argentina is a major global wheat exporter. Farmers have already planted 98.3% of the estimated 6.7 million hectares (16.6 million acres) for the crop, according to the grains exchange.

“78.7% of the grain is developing under adequate to optimal moisture conditions, and 96.9% is in normal to excellent crop conditions,” thanks to the extended rainfall, the exchange said in its weekly crop report.

Last season, 6.3 million hectares of wheat were planted in Argentina, producing 18.6 million metric tons of the grain, according to the exchange.

Separately, the exchange reported that the 2024/25 corn harvest is 88% complete and maintained its production estimate of 49 million tons. Argentina is the world’s third-largest exporter of the grain.

 

Argentine Corn, Wheat Crop Estimates July 31: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2024-25 corn production estimate maintained at 49m tons
• 2025-26 wheat planting advanced to 98.3% complete vs 95.9% in the previous week

 

China buys more Argentine soymeal as feedmakers seize on cheaper prices, sources say

A Chinese buyer has signed a deal this week to import 30,000 metric tons of Argentine soymeal, as feed producers move to lock in cheaper supplies from South America, two trade sources told Reuters on Friday.

The cargo, priced at $345 per metric ton, including freight, is scheduled for shipment between September and October, the sources said.

This marks the third such deal Reuters reported since June, when Chinese buyers booked the first bulk cargo, years after Beijing approved Argentine soymeal imports in 2019.

Argentina’s soymeal is currently priced below domestically crushed soymeal, sources said, with competitiveness likely boosted after the Argentine government cut export taxes on soymeal down at 24.5% from previous 31%.

“The tax reduction lowers export costs, making Argentine soymeal more attractive globally,” said Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting.

 

USDA June soybean crush seen at 196.6 million bushels, analysts say

The June U.S. soybean crush likely dropped from a month earlier to 5.899 million short tons, or 196.6 million bushels, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture report due on Friday.

If the average of seven analyst estimates is realized, the soybean crush would be down 3.5% from the 203.7 million bushels processed in May and the smallest monthly crush since February. But it would be up 7.2% from the June 2024 crush of 183.5 million bushels and the largest June crush on record, according to USDA data.

The June 2025 estimate implies an average daily crush rate of 6.554 million bushels a day in June, which would be the slowest daily pace since September.

A surge in U.S. soy processing capacity in recent years has swelled the industry’s output as some processors expanded facilities and others built new plants to capitalize on surging vegetable oil demand for making biofuels.

But a recent processing margin slump and rising supplies of soymeal prompted some soy plants to scale back run rates. Some facilities have also been scheduling downtime for seasonal maintenance work at plants before newly harvested soybeans become available following the autumn harvest.

Crush estimates for June ranged from 195.2 million to 198.0 million bushels, with a median of 196.6 million bushels.

The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CDT (1900 GMT) on Friday.

U.S. soyoil stocks as of June 30 were estimated at 1.863 billion pounds, based on the average of estimates from five analysts.

The oil stocks estimate reflects a 0.7% decline from supplies totaling 1.876 billion pounds at the end of May and a 12.3% drop from stocks of 2.125 billion pounds at the end of June last year.

Estimates ranged from 1.850 billion to 1.879 billion pounds, with a median of 1.867 billion pounds.

The National Oilseed Processors Association said its members, which account for at least 95% of U.S.-processed soybeans, crushed 185.709 million bushels in June, while end-of-month oil stocks held by NOPA members dipped to 1.366 billion pounds.

 

SovEcon Cuts Ukraine 2025 Season Wheat and Barley Output Ests.

SovEcon cut its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat and barley forecasts, due to lower yield outlooks, it said in a note.

• Wheat output is now forecast at 19.8m tons, down 2.8m tons on a previous estimate
  • Wheat yields seen at the lowest since 2019, below the five-year average
• Barley is now estimated at 4.8m tons, cut by 0.4m tons
  • Barley yields were also below-average
• “We underestimated the impact of June’s hot, dry weather in key wheat regions,”: Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon
• Corn production outlooks was raised to 30.4m tons, up 2.1m tons
  • Raise came on favorable conditions due to higher planting areas
  • Still some concerns remain regarding yields as hot dry weather continue in Ukraine

 

Indonesia’s palm oil exports at 11 million metric tons in first half

Indonesia exported 11 million metric tons of crude and refined palm oil from January to June, up 2.69% from the same period last year, the statistics bureau said on Friday.

The average value per ton of exported palm oil in the first half of the year surged by 22.2%, the bureau data showed.

The bureau’s data excludes palm kernel oil, oleochemicals and biodiesel. Indonesia’s palm oil association GAPKI usually releases its own data at a later date, which cover more products and so has different export figures.

For June alone, exports of crude palm oil and its products stood at 2.07 million tons, up 0.06% from a year earlier and 43.42% from the previous month.

 

Malaysia Says US Open to Providing 0% Tariff on Palm Oil, Rubber

Malaysia is still negotiating with the US on some goods that it believes should be exempted from tariffs, according to Investment, Trade and Industry Minister Zafrul Aziz.

• These are agriculture or commodity products that the US is unable to produce
• US is open to providing zero tariffs for cocoa, rubber and palm oil as those goods can’t be substituted
• Some concessions Malaysia made in reaching a tariff deal with the US include expediting import approval procedures for halal products, commitments to labor policies and on the environment
• Malaysia has agreed to implement zero tariffs on 61% of products imported from the US
• Malaysia did not agree to lifting limits on foreign equity shareholdings, government procurement, removing excise duties on vehicles

 

Brazil sees 35.9% of exports to US facing steeper tariff, pushes reversal for coffee

Brazil estimates that 35.9% of its exports to the U.S. by value will be hit by a steep 50% tariff under a new executive order by Donald Trump’s administration, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said on Thursday, emphasizing efforts to reverse the levies on key goods such as coffee.

The estimate confirms earlier reporting by Reuters, with sources saying 44.6% of local products will be subject to the preexisting 10% tariff, while the remaining 19.5% will fall under tariffs the U.S. applies globally, ranging from 25% to 50%.

Trump slapped the 50% tariff to fight what he has called a “witch hunt” against former President Jair Bolsonaro – who is on trial on charges of plotting a coup following his election loss in 2022 – but softened the blow by excluding sectors such as aircraft, energy and orange juice from heavier levies.

But major exports including coffee and beef were not spared.

“We will work to get the U.S. to lower the tariff on coffee,” Alckmin said in an interview with TV Globo’s “Mais Voce” morning show.

“They don’t grow coffee,” he added, warning that American consumers will bear the cost in what he described as a “lose-lose situation.”

Alckmin said Brazil’s domestic inflation should be helped by diverting to the local market goods that would otherwise have been exported to the United States.

He also reiterated that the government is preparing a contingency plan to support sectors affected by Trump’s decision, focused on preserving jobs and production. The plan is expected to include financial, credit and tax measures.

According to Alckmin, some of those support measures may be excluded from the government’s primary fiscal target calculation, as Latin America’s largest economy aims to eliminate its budget deficit this year.

Earlier on Thursday, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said Brazil would challenge the U.S. decision through the appropriate channels, either within U.S. jurisdiction or before international bodies.

Haddad stressed the government sees room for “corrections” to the higher U.S. tariffs, arguing that some sectors were disproportionately affected and should be reassessed immediately.

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 843k tons in the week ending July 26 from 731k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 21.2% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 15.7% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $18.87 per short ton, an increase of $0.64 from the previous week

 

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending July 29: USDA

The following  shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending July 29, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Drought conditions in corn-growing areas fell to 7% from 9%
• Drought in soybean areas 5% vs 8%

 

India Monsoon Rains Seen Above Normal in Second Half of Season

India is likely to get above-normal rainfall during the last two months of the southwest monsoon season, according to the India Meteorological Department, boosting prospects for crops such as rice and soybeans.

• Rains during August-September are seen at more that 106% of the long-period average, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department, said in New Delhi on Thursday
• Most regions of the country to get normal to above-normal rains
• August rainfall likely to be within normal range
• Maximum temperatures are likely to stay normal to below normal in many regions next month
• Neutral ENSO conditions to continue through the monsoon season; neutral IOD may shift to weak negative phase by the end of the rainy period

 

 

 

 

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