Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
U.S. stock index futures are lower as investors assess the latest headlines on the Omicron variant.
Jobless claims in the week ended December 4 were 184,000 when 223,000 were expected.
The 9:00 central time October wholesale inventories report is anticipated to show a 2.1% increase.
The long-term fundamentals remain bullish on balance for stock index futures.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is higher in a flight to quality move after yesterday falling under a six-day uptrend line.
The British pound declined in conjunction with the yield on U.K. 10-year government bond extending losses towards 0.70%, touching its lowest level since mid-September.
The Bank of Canada held its policy meeting yesterday. The central bank decided to keep its target for the overnight rate at 25 basis points, which was in line with forecasts. The BOC indicated it sees an increase in the overnight rate sometime in the middle of 2022. Policymakers pledged to provide an adequate degree of monetary stimulus to support Canada’s economy and achieve the inflation target of 2.0%.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
As concerns over the impact of Omicron on the global economy reemerge, flight to quality buying is coming into the 30-year Treasury bond futures.
The Treasury will auction 30-year bonds today.
The yield curve has flattened recently, with yields on shorter-dated issues rising and yields on longer-dated issues ticking down, which is an indication of a slowing economy.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently indicated the Fed will discuss speeding up the tapering of its bond-buying program at the central bank’s next meeting on December 15.
Most analysts expect a first fed funds rate hike in June or July.
If the U.S. economy weakens it may be difficult for the Fed to justify an accelerated taper of its asset-purchase program, especially now that other major central banks are adding more accommodation or delaying the partial removal of easy monetary policies.
The longer-term trend for the 30-year Treasury bond futures is higher.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
