Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. North America weather forecast is crop favorable. Rains improved US north plains. US Delta, SE and ECB remans wet. US WCB is dry. China wheat areas are dry but rains is in the forecast. N EU rains. Expect choppy commodity trade until more is known about tariffs. Gold is higher. Crude is higher, USD is higher. US stocks are lower.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.61. Dalian soybean, soymeal. soyoil and palmoil futures were higher. Brazil soybean export basis was higher on talk of China interest for July-Aug. One group dropped US 2024/25 soybean crush 20 mil vu which raised carryout to 374. They reduced 2025/26 crush 75 mil bu vs USDA but added 200 mil bu to their export guess. This leaves a carryout at 500 mil bu vs USDA 295. USDA estimated US soybean plantings at 76 pct vs 66 last week and 78 expected. US soybean exports are up 11 pct vs ly and USDA up 9. Soyoil bulls hope for RVO announcement soon.
CORN
CN is near 4.52. Dalian corn ended higher. USDA rated US corn crop 68 pct G/E vs 73 expected. IL 57,IA 73, MN 69, NE 70 OH 41, ND 48, SD 55, TX 46. Some feel US 2025/26 exports are 275 mil bu below USDA which increase carryout closer to 2,020. US corn export commit is near 2,491 mil bu vs 1,939 last year. US export price is competitive until late summer and start of Brazil 2nd corn crop harvest. US corn exports are up 29 pct vs ly and USDA up 14.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.35. WN support is 5.25. Resistance is 5.60. Wheat futures had found support from recent drop in USD, C US rains, increase wheat feeding but then dropped due to N EU and W Australia rains. Futures found support overnight on fact USDA rated US spring wheat crop only 45 G/E vs 71 expected (ND 37) and dropped US WW 50 pct G/E vs 52 last week and 53 expected. OH 41, OK 46 and TX 26. US wheat exports are up 16 pct vs ly and in line with USDA est. US wheat export 2024/25 market season ends Friday.
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