Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
CRUDE OIL
November Crude Oil was higher overnight after the US Fed met bullish expectations by cutting interest rates 0.5%. but the market also drew support from elevated tensions in the Mideast after there were more explosions in Lebanon from sabotaged Hezbollah communication devices, this time walkie-talkies. Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports fell to 5.741 million barrels per day in July, down from 6.047 mbd in June and their lowest level since August 2023. Production rose to 8.941 mbpd. Recall that OPEC+ oil ministers agreed to delay a planned relaxation of their quotas that had been slated to begin in October. Saudi Arabia had also cut its export price to Asia due to weak demand. A teamsters strike threatened for ports on the East Coast and the US Gulf could cause shipping bottlenecks that could be felt into 2025, according to port authorities. This could cause problems with exports of crude oil and the products as well as imports of crude used for refining in the US. Yesterday’s EIA report showed US crude oil, gasoline and distillate stocks coming in at the bullish end of expectations last week but the market’s response was minimal as the market was awaiting the FOMC decision. Crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma fell 1.979 million barrels last week. They have declined for six straight weeks and have been down for 10 of the past 11. This was their biggest single-week decline since January.
PRODUCT MARKETS
The EIA report was neutral to slightly bullish for RBOB and somewhat supportive to for ULSD, but neither market saw much benefit from the report until the FOMC meeting results were announced. November RBOB has pushed above the 21-day moving average for the first time since late August this morning.
NATURAL GAS
November Natural Gas is lower for the third straight session this morning , as the market gives back its recent gains off the slowdown US storage builds. Traders may have been disappointed with comments from the CEO of US natural gas producer EQT Corp, who speaking at the Gastech conference yesterday said that he expects prices to remain below $3 per million Btu in the short term. He looks for production curtailments to ease by next year as demand for US LNG exports rise. The teamsters strike threatened for US ports on the Atlantic and Gulf ports could affect LNG exports, which would lower gas demand. For the weekly storage report today, traders are looking for a 50-67 bcf build for last week versus a five-year average increase of 67 bcf.
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