Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
CRUDE OIL
September Crude Oil was a little lower overnight but it stayed inside yesterday’s range for the most part. The August 1 tariff deadline is apparently weighing on traders’ minds, especially with the EU talking about counter-measures that would threaten to accelerate the situation into an all-out trade war. There are not a lot of hopes that the EU’s latest effort to restrict Russia’s oil revenue will have much effect, as Russia has been able to circumvent previous efforts. However, the addition of an import ban on refined oil products made from Russian crude could have an effect on product flows.
NATURAL GAS
September Natural Gas is lower again today and is threatening to take out the seven month low from July 9. The bears are undaunted by the forecast for much above normal temperatures for the US in the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts, as US storage growth has come in above average levels for the past two months. For the US EIA storage report this week, the early Reuters poll has an range of expectations for natural gas supply to show a net injection of 29 to 42 bcf for the week ending July 18. The five-year average change for the week is +28 bcf.
PRODUCTS
September RBOB is lower today, as this market continues to lag the rest of the complex due to ample gasoline supplies and slower than normal demand. September ULSD is lower as well, but it is supported by very low US supply.
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