Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower this morning on disappointment over the lack of details in China’s fiscal stimulus plans during the finance minister’s press conference on Saturday and from more disappointing data on Chinese oil demand. China has pledged to “significantly increase debt,” but they have not said how much. China imported 45.49 million metric tons of oil in September (11.07 million barrels per day), according to the General Administration of Customs, down 0.6% from a year earlier. This was the fifth straight month that shipments were less than a year ago. Year to date imports totaled 412.39 million tons or 19.99 million bpd, down 2.8% from a year ago. Chinese diesel consumption has been less than a year ago in every month this year except for August. The China news has offset concerns about escalation in the Middle East and speculation about Israel’s potential response to Iran’s October 1 missile strikes. The US said on Sunday it would send troops to Israel with an advanced anti-missile system to bolster the country’s air defenses. OPEC will release their October monthly oil market report today. The Baker Hughes rig count showed US oil rigs in operation were up 2 rigs to 481 last week, erasing some of the 9-rig decline during the previous two weeks. Rigs are down from 501 a year ago and below the five-year average of 492. Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net sellers of 3,947 contracts of crude oil for the week ending October 8, reducing their net long to 137,293.
PRODUCT MARKETS
Product prices followed crude oil lower overnight. Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net buyers of 13,702 contracts of RBOB for the week ending October 8, increasing their net long to 39,464.
NATURAL GAS
December Natural Gas is close to taking out the September 3 lows this morning. The market has sold off for the past seven sessions on reduced gas consumption for electrical generation in the wake of power outages from Hurricanes Helene and Milton. As of Friday, around 2.3 million customers were still without power in Florida. The Baker Hughes rig count showed US natural gas rigs in operation were down 1 rig to 101 last week. This was down from 117 rigs a year ago and below the five-year average of 117.6. This follows a 6-rig increase during the previous two weeks. Chinese Natural gas imports were up 18.1% from a year ago to 11.99 million tons, bringing year to date purchases to 99.08 million, 13% above a year earlier. Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net sellers of 5,907 contracts of natural gas for the week ending October 8, increasing their net short to 19,620. This is close to a flat position. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast show above normal temperatures across most of the US , which will limit heating demand in the north but support cooling demand in the south.
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