Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
CRUDE OIL
October Crude Oil is near unchanged this morning following yesterday’s rally off a bullish EIA stocks report. The market is watching developments in the Middle East to see if or how Iran responds to last week’s killing, apparently by Israel of a Hamas leader in Tehran. It has put aside concerns about demand for the moment, but if equity market selling resumes, so could pressure on the oil markets. Libya has declared force majeure at its Sharara oil field, which has a capacity of 300,000 barrels per day as of yesterday, due to protests by a political group.
In yesterday’s EIA report, US crude oil stocks fell more than the expected for the week ending August 2, gasoline stocks increased rather than decrease, and distillates increased slightly more than expected. US crude oil supply is the lowest since February and the lowest it has been at this time of year in at least six years. Crude oil and the products rallied right after the report and continued to build on those gains through the session. Gasoline and distillate stocks are above where they were at this time the past couple of years, but both are below their five-year averages.
PRODUCT MARKETS
RBOB and ULSD rallied off the EIA report yesterday despite their inventory levels coming in at the bearish end of expectations.
NATURAL GAS
September Natural Gas was lower overnight after trading to its highest level since August 1 yesterday. The market has seen short covering this week after falling to new contract lows on Monday. A return of hot weather for the nation’s mid-section could provide a late-season boost in cooling demand, but cooler than normal conditions are expected along the west coast and normal to below normal on the eastern seaboard. For today’s weekly EIA storage report, traders are looking for an injection of 16-35 bcf for the week ending August 2. As of last week’s report, US storage was running 8.4% ahead of a year ago and 15.7% ahead of average. The surpluses to year ago have held at 8.4% for the past three weeks, and the surplus to the average has been falling steadily all summer. As of June 14, US supply was running 22.6% ahead of average.
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