ADMIS News
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
COCOA
December Cocoa was lower overnight. The market has been in a sideways pattern for the past week as it awaits the arrival of the main crop, but Ivory Coast arrivals seem to be picking up. Total arrivals for the week ending September 15 were estimated at 17,000 metric tons, up from 12,000 the previous week and the highest since July 14. This was also the highest for this week in at least three years. Cumulative arrivals for the 2023/24 marketing year, which began in October, have reached 1.733 million tons, down from 2.320 million for the same period last year and 2.106 million the year before that. World Weather Service expects periodic showers and thunderstorms to impact many cocoa production areas in west Africa during the next ten days, with most getting rain at some point. Some of the precipitation may be moderate to heavy in Cameroon and parts of Nigeria. Southern Ivory Coast and southwestern Ghana are not likely to be nearly see as much rain, and there may be some need for more.
COFFEE
December Coffee is near unchanged this morning overnight after rallying to new contract highs yesterday but closing lower on the day. The fact that the market closed so far off its highs suggests that I may have moved to far, too fast. Brazil is finally getting some rain but not enough in major growing areas. There are also concerns that trees are too stressed to produce much fruit, even if enough rain arrives in time to induce flowering. Vietnam’s Central Highlands received good trains over the weekend and could see significant rain this week when a tropical cyclone could hit the region. World Weather Service does not expect the storm’s winds to be strong enough to seriously threaten coffee. Some areas of Indonesia could uses some rain.
COTTON
December Cotton was lower overnight, but it held most of yesterday’s breakout rally to its highest level since July 15. Last week’s hurricane brought heavy rainfall to Mississippi and Arkansas, which has appeared to damage crops there. After the close, the weekly Crop Progress report showed 39% of the US cotton crop was rated good/excellent as of September 15, down from 40% the previous week but up from 29% a year ago. The five-year average for this date is 42%. This is the lowest conditions have been all year. Arkansas and Mississippi saw significant declines, with Arkansas 67% G/E from 77% last week and Mississippi down to 49% from 52%. The report also showed 54% of the US crop had bolls open versus 52% a year ago and a five-year average of 50%. Texas was 47% open, Georgia 57%, Arkansas 92%, and Mississippi 79%. 10% of the crop was harvested versus 9% a year ago and 8% on average. Texas was 22% harvested, Georgia 0%, Arkansas 3%, and Mississippi 2%. The heavy rains also left crops vulnerable boll rot. The Delta is in a long-term drought, and the rains did provide some relief, but they were not timely. The nearby Dollar Index is close to taking out its low from July 2023, which would put it at its lowest level since April 2022, as the market awaits the FOMC decision tomorrow. The weaker dollar makes US cotton exports more competitive on the global market.
SUGAR
March Sugar traded to its highest level since September 6 overnight. The market has drawn support in the wake of last week’s UNICA data that showed Brazilian production continuing to slip relative to year ago levels, but it has yet to take out its highs from late August. The trade has been expecting Brazil’s production to fall off as the season progresses, and last week’s report did not offer many surprises. Center south Brazil has received some rain recently, but not consistently so. The French cooperative Tereos said yesterday that raging fires had burned 10% of their Brazilian sugar cane fields, as fires continue to roll through many of the producing regions. The fires are fueled by the drought, but in some cases arson is suspected. The Ukrainian sugar producer’s union said yesterday that the nation’s sugar beet growing area could fall 20% in 2025 because of difficulties with white sugar exports due to EU curbs on imports.
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