Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Choppy trade continues. US stocks, bonds and USD are all lower after Moody’s lowered US credit rating due to larger deficit and rising interest cost. US House committee advanced tax bill that may not reduce the deficit. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. Trump to talk to Putin today. U.S. Midwest rains. EU 11-15 US Midwest is dry. W Canada prairies are dry. EU model is dry for N EU. C/N BA Argentina saw flooding rains over 50 pct of remaining soybean crop yet to be harvested. Half of Mexico corn areas dry. China wheat areas dry. Australia mostly dry.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.53. BON found some end user buying near 48 cents. SMN saw selling near 296. Trade will now watch US weather and demand for US soybeans. Some in trade added 40 cents and 70 cents to old and new crop trading range due to hopes for a US/China trade deal. Same group dropped US 2024/25 soybean crush 20 mil vu which raised carryout to 374. They estimate US 2025 soybean crop at 4,375 mil bu and reduced 2025/26 crush 75 mil bu but added 200 mil bu to their export guess. This leaves a carryout at 500 mil bu vs USDA 295.
CORN
CN is near 4.46. Prices may be too low for farmer selling. Most agree with USDA 2024/25 Supply and Demand. Mos estimate US 2025 crop near USDA 15,820 mil bu but some feel US 2025/26 exports are 275 mil bu below USDA which increase carryout closer to 2,025. Midwest rains this week. 11-15 dry.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.27. KWN is near 5.18. MWN is near 5.75. Trade will monitor weekly US winter wheat crop updates for disease and toxin news. Funds added to Chicago and KC shorts. China, Australia and China wheat areas dry. N EU rains. 11-15 day Germany and Poland forecast is drier. Some look for US wheat crop near 1,949 and demand near 1,984 which leave a carryout at 824 mil bu. USDA est World wheat exports at 213 mmt vs 206 ly. Increase due to higher China, Turkey, Iran and Pakistan. Time will tell. World wheat 2025/26 end stocks remain near 265 mmt
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