Can Export Sales Beat Last Week?

COTTON

December Cotton has turned lower this morning after rallying to its highest level since June 2, as the market continues to be range-bound, drawing support from low expectations for the US crop this year and resistance off low expectations for exports. There may also be some caution ahead of this morning’s weekly export sales report, but we suspect most of that caution will be reserved for the acreage report on Monday. Cumulative sales for 2025/26 reached 1.648 million bales, down from 2.070 million at this time last year and the lowest for this point in the season since 2014/15. For the acreage report on Monday, the Reuters poll has an average trade expectation for US cotton plantings is 9.735 million acres, with a range of expectations from 8.800 to 9.985 million. This would be down 1.3% from the March intentions number of 9.867 and down from 11.138 million last year.

COCOA

West Africa appears to be seeing enough rain for cocoa crop development after a dry winter sparked concerns. Ivory Coast port arrivals have been sluggish over the past few weeks, which could be the result of those dry conditions. Cumulative arrivals as of Sunday were only 1.595 million metric tons, only slightly higher than the 1.577 million at this time last year and well below the five year average of 1.952 million. World Weather Service commented yesterday that West Africa cocoa development is advancing well this year due to timely rainfall and seasonably warm temperatures. The overnight maps showed rains fell in northern Ghana, northern Nigeria, and the southwest corner of Ivory Coast over the past 24 hours, continuing a pattern over regular rainfall over the various parts of the region with some locally heavy rains on occasion. They expect this pattern to continue through the next week. It is important that they see sun as well as rain.

COFFEE

September NY Coffee fell to its lowest level this year yesterday after the cold temperatures in Brazil on Tuesday night were not low enough to cause any damage. World Weather Service said yesterday that no unharvested beans were at risk of damage and that no 2025/26 blossom buds were at risk of being harmed either. In their biennial update yesterday, USDA put global coffee production for 2025/26 at 178.680 million bags up 3.985 million from 174.695 million in 2024/25 and a new record. Robusta production was forecast a 81.658 million, up from 75.703 million and a new record as well. Arabica production is forecast at 97.022 million, down from 98.692 million and short of the record 104.926 million from 2018. The decline in arabica production is not a surprise, as this is the off year for Brazil’s arabica crop. This report reflects the various updates that have been issued by the USDA this spring, including the May 19 update from Brazil.

SUGAR

Nearby sugar fell to a four year low yesterday but the October contract has managed to hold last week’s low at 16.20. The market saw a tepid rally earlier this week, perhaps on short covering after its steep declines off the early start to the Indian monsoon and what that implies for cane production this year. World Weather Service has indicated this week that while India’s monsoon is intensifying, southern parts of the nation are not getting much rain. This could undercut some of the optimism regarding their crop. Brazil’s National Energy Policy Council said yesterday that starting August 1, the proportion of ethanol to be mixed in gasoline will rise to 30% from the current 27%. This is a change from earlier in the year when the government suggested they would leave the level unchanged. Perhaps the 20% decline in sugar prices since March has something to do with their change in position.

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