Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
MORNING COMMENTS
Geopolitics:
Wars are picking up steam. Hezbollah shot missiles 18 miles across the Lebanon/Israeli boarder in response to last week’s pager attack. 150 missiles were launched from Lebanon into Israel, most of them were neutralized by Israel’s anti-air defenses. The missiles struck Haifa early Sunday morning, damage included residential areas in the Israeli city. News this morning is reporting a counter attack from Israel into Lebanon in a wide spread air strike that has killed over 100 people and injured over 400. Turkey’s president, Erdogan, is worried Israel is going to pull surrounding nations into the fight. Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu is considering a plan to force all Palestinians out of northern Gaza and force Hamas to release hostages
Macroeconomics:
China lowered their lending rate 10 basis points to stimulate their economy. Crude and copper are not reacting to the news. The Chinese Yuan currency gained ground following the news. Cuts by the Federal Reserve have prompted exporters to convert their US dollar assets into the yuan, strengthening their currency. This could mean that Chinese exports could become more costly and less competitive when weighed against goods from other countries. Last month the yuan gained almost 2% against the US dollar as Chinese exported converted $37 billion in foreign exchanges revenues, the highest shift since September of 2022.
Ag Fundamentals:
The Supply side of the market is starting to show face as US harvest continues. Rain over the last 72 hours my slow farmers down slightly, but low soil moisture may have allowed recent rains to soak right in, avoiding problems. Crop progress will be released later today. On the demand side, China bought 121K MT of beans late last week. Since the beginning of September China is responsible for at least 4 flash sales. All around 100-130K MT of soybeans out of the gulf. Chinese end user continues to buy meal.
Weather:
We are still on the side of La Nina and there is a over 70% chance that La Nina persists into the winter months. 1-2 inches of rain stretched over the Midwest over the last few days. This rain moved right over the areas that were seeing the least soil moisture. This rain is not expected to help the low river levels in a big way. Memphis gauge is still expected to hit -10 feet tomorrow. Central Brazil is still dry and they do not expect to see much more than a 1/4 inch of rain in the Central and East Central regions.
Export & World News
The US sold 121K MT of soybeans to China,reported on Friday. Taiwan issued an international tender to buy up to 65K Mt of animal feed corn from the US, Brazil or South Africa.
Malaysian palm oil futures were up 30 ringgit overnight, at 3977.
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