Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. Good US harvest weather and better South America weather is weighing on futures. US stocks are unch. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. China is back from Holiday. Their stock market dropped as official said downward pressure to China economy are increasing.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans are lower. US Midwest weather should be warm and dry which should help harvest. US harvest is 47 pct done. US farmer is steady seller of cash. 2 week South Americas forecast calls for normal rains. A 169 mmt Brazil 2025 soybean crop would be bearish soybean prices. USDA October report is Friday. Most look for a higher US 2024/25 soybean carryout due to lower export est. China is back from Holiday. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were sharply lower. Palmoil is higher and near 2 ½ year high. US exports are down 1 pct vs ly and USDA goal of up 9 pct. USDA announced 172.5 mt of new soybean sales to unknown.
CORN
Corn futures are slightly lower. CZ failed at 4.35. Brazil is forecast to see normal rains after Wednesday. US west Midwest is warm and dry which should help harvest. US harvest is 30 pct vs 27 average. Some are looking for increase US farmer selling over next 10 days. USDA October report is Friday. Most look for a higher US 2024 crop to offset lower carryin. Most also look for higher US 2024/25 corn carryout due to lower export est. China is back from Holiday with corn futures lower.
WHEAT
Wheat futures are lower. WZ failed at 6.00 again. WZ-WH spread widening due to concern over SRW demand. US south plains and Black Sea are dry. EU is wet and cool. Russia wheat price have traded higher, but so has World prices. This continues to leave Russia competitive for buyers. Saudia Arabia bought 307 mt believed to be from Russia. US exports up 35 pct vs ly and USDA goal up 17 pct. US winter wheat planting is near 51 pct.
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