Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Rain makes grain. US stocks are lower. GS said stocks should trend higher but would end lower by month end. USD is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Senate is debating/voting on Trump big beautiful bill. Israel continues to bomb Gaza. World nuclear watch dog suggest Iran still has enriched uranium. Hedge funds buying Bank stocks to new highs.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 10.11.Dalan soybean, palmoil and soyoil were lower. USDA est US June 1 soybean stocks near 1,008 mil bu vs 970 ly. This suggest 2024 crop may be understated. USDA est US soybean acres at 83.3 mil vs March 83.5. Weekly US soybean exports were 8.2 mil bu. Season to date exports are 1,684 mil bu vs 1,526 ly. USDA goal is 1,850 vs 1,695 ly. USDA rated US crop 66 pct G/E unch from last week. Trade est US May soybean crush at 204.7 mil bu vs 191.6 ly. USDA est US total crush at 2,420 mil bu vs 2,285 ly.
CORN
CU is near 4.04. Dalian corn was lower. USDA est US June 1 corn stocks near 4,644 mil bu vs 4,997 ly. USDA est US corn acres at 95.2 mil vs March 95.3. Increase Brazil corn exports could drop US exports to 2,200 mil bu and increase US 25/26 carryout to 2,200. Weekly US corn exports were 53.9 mil bu. Season to date exports are 2163 mil bu vs 1,673 ly. USDA goal is 2,650 vs 2,292 ly. USDA rated US crop 73 pct G/E and up 3 pct from last week. This is the best since 2018.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.45. KWU is near 5.30. Matif and Argentina wheat futures made new lows. USDA est US June 1 wheat stocks near 851 mil bu vs 696 ly. USDA est US wheat acres at 45.4 mil vs March 45.4. Weekly US wheat exports were 15 mil bu, Season to date exports were 47 mil bu vs 51 ly. USDA goal is 825 vs 820 ly. USDA rated US winter wheat crop down 1 pct to 48 G/E. US harvest is 37 pct vs 19 last week. USDA rated US spring wheat crop down 1 pct to 53 pct G/E.
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