MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are sharply higher. SH is up 21 cents and near 13.60. SMH is near 403.7. BOH is near 57.57. CH is up 8 cents and near 6.02. WH is up 11 cents and near 7.82. KWH is up 15 cents and near 8.16. MWZ is up 11 cents and near 9.93.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. CFTC report was delayed until Monday due to holiday.
Dalian futures closed for holiday. Key to corn/soybeans could be China 2022 import demand.
Soybean and corn are higher on a static warm and dry S Brazil and Argentina forecast. Weather markets are volatile. SH resistance 13.70, CH 6.06, KWH 8.19. Some light showers this week across the dry areas but temps will be above normal. N Brazil wet. Dry Jan and some feel SA could lose 14-18 mmt corn and 10 mmt Brazil soybean crop.
Lower SA corn soybean supply could result in 200/250 more US corn exports, 100/150 beans. US S Plains weekend precip was less than forecasted. Drier forecast offers KC wheat support.
Recent SH high was 13.84. SMH 415. BOH 57.80. Lower SA supplies could test resistance. Recent CH high was near 6.17. Higher demand could test resistance. Size of US 2021 crop key. Recent WH high 8.24, KWH 8.72, MWH 10.36. Higher S Hemisphere supply negative.
Russia may not export 36 mmt wheat. World demand up 5-7 mmt, 2021 stocks down 10 mmt. 2022 N Hemisphere must increase 15-20 mmt to help increase export supply limit price gain.
Some estimate US Dec 1 corn stocks at 11,700 mil bu vs 11,294 ly. Sep-Nov use 4,461 4,743 ly. Some estimate US Dec 1 soybean stocks at 3,100 mil bu vs 2,947 ly. Sep-Nov use 1,575 1,797 ly. Some estimate US Dec 1 wheat stocks at 1,350 mil bu vs 1,703 ly. Sep-Nov use 451 vs 483 ly. Some est US 2022 wheat acres at 48.5 vs 46.7 ly. Winter wheat 33.9 vs 33.6. Spring 12.7 vs 11.4.
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