Written Commentary
Global Ag News for Mar 25.24
March 25, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybeans traded mixed. SN ended near 13.59. High was 13.72. SU ended near 13.17. SX ended near 13.12. US dry NW Midwest forecast could send SU above 13.50. BOU is near 61.81. Close over 63.87 could suggest test of recent highs. Lower World demand and higher Argentina supply limits SMU upside. USDA is also expected to estimate US 2012 soybean acres near 89.1 million vs 87.6 est in March. June 1 US soybean stocks are estimated near 773 mil bu vs 1,381 last year. USDA rated US soybean crop 60 pct G/E vs 71 last year. 34 pct of acres in IA,MN,ND and SD ratings suggest below trend yields. 33 pct of acres in AR, IN, KY, LA, NE, OH and TN ratings suggest yields above trend. Trade could see final US 2020/21 and 2021/22 soybean demand above USDA June est which could drop carryout below USDA est. This still has some of the fundamentalist looking for higher prices post USDA June 30 numbers.
CORN
Corn futures ended mixed. CN ended up 19 cents and near 6.94. The 1.35 inverse over CU suggest tight old crop supply going into deliveries, lack of grain moving especially to the export channels and lack of deliveries. Recent rains over north Illinois could raise water levels on Illinois river and limit barge loadings. Exporters still need to buy cash for exports. Tomorrows June 1 corn stocks estimates will be critical to see how much corn is in the country and pct on and off farm. Crushers appear to have good ownership into late August. Also tomorrow USDA will revise US 2021 corn acres. Trade expects 93.8 million vs 91.1 in March. Not only is the actual number key but if acres increase where is the increase? In NW where summer weather could be warm and dry or in east where conditions are improving . June 1 US corn stocks are estimated near 4,130 mil bu vs 5,003 last year. USDA rated US corn crop 64 pct G/E vs 73 last year. 33 pct of acres in IA,MN,ND and SD ratings suggest below trend yields. 35 pct of acres in IN, KY, WI, NE, OH and TN ratings suggest yields above trend. Stats Canada est 2021 corn, oats and barley aces near 15.2 million acres vs 15.6 expected and 14.9 ly. Corn futures rallied on talk that frost/freeze in South Brazil could drop their corn crop closer to 87-88 mmt vs USDA June guess of 98.5 and 102.0 last year. USDA World corn export matrix includes Brazil exporting 14 mmt of corn June-Sep. So far, June exports have been only 94 mt.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended lower. Talk of higher US 2021 HRW and SRW crops and slow demand for US wheat exports offered resistance into July deliveries and USDA June stocks and acreage report. USDA is expected to estimate US 2012 wheat acres near 46.0 million vs 46.4 est in March. June 1 US wheat stocks are estimated near 861 mil bu vs 1,028 last year. There are reports of low protein in US 2021 HRW crop. There is also some concern that more rain could increase concern for disease in US SRW crop. USDA est that 33 pct of US winter wheat crop is harvested, IL 63, MO 51, KS 41, OK 80 and TX 75. USDA also estimated US spring wheat crop down 7 to 20 pct G/E and a 33 year low. ND is rated 20 pct G/E with 42 pct of the crop headed. Stats Canada est 2021 All Wheat Acreage at 23.357 mln vs expected 23.3 and 2020 24.982. 2021 Durum wheat acreage at 5.531 mln vs expected 5.5 mln acres and 2020 5.689 mln and 2021 Spring Wheat acreage at 16.477 mln vs 2020 17.926 mln acres. Canada farmers planted more canola and less wheat acres.
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