Written Commentary
Global Ag News for Mar 25.24
March 25, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybeans traded higher. Rumors of China asking for US new crop soybean prices is offering support. Talk that late next week, a ridge of high pressure could form in north plains and upper Midwest may also be offering support. Fact NASS dropped US weekly soybean crop rating and dropped ratings in IL, IN, LA, MN, MO, NE, ND, SD and TN maybe also offering support. WOB could keep US soybean yield near trend at 50.8 on July 12 after recent rains. Most private estimates are near 49-50. Trade also looks for US 2020/21 soybean demand up 20-30 mil bu and 2021/22 up 50 mil bu. Some could see US 2021/22 soybean carryout closer to 100 vs WOB 155. Key will be final yield. SU is back near 100 day moving ave. Support is near 13.00. Resistance 13.50 then 14.00. SMU support 350. Strong resistance from 3.70 to 3.80 then 3.90. BOU near 61 cent resistance. Recent range 55-65.
CORN
Corn traded lower. Some feel that most of the US corn crop is now made and except for states of ND,SD, MN and West IA, crops are far enough along and a normal July forecast could suggest higher yields in the east. NASS rated OH crop 80 pct G/E, NE 85, TN 79 and improved ratings in IA, MI and WI. Managed funds were long a record corn futures going into the July 4 weekend. Rains on the radar triggered massive fund selling. Slow US corn export pace and new concern that China may be done buying US corn offered resistance. US Midwest 2 week weather forecast suggested normal Midwest rains and temps which could help US east Midwest crops. This am maps were drier esp in NW Midwest. WOB could keep US corn yield near trend at 179.5 on July 12 after recent rains. Most private estimates are near 175-177. Trade also looks for US 2020/21 corn demand up 100 mil bu and 2021/22 up 300 mil bu. Some could see US 2021/22 corn carryout closer to 900 vs WOB 1,357. Weekly US ethanol production should be near last week with stocks with small stock build expected. Key will be final yield and export demand. Today, CU range was 5.31-5.58. 100 day moving ave is near 5.45. Support is near 5.30. Gap from 5.70 to 5.88 is strong overhead resistance.
WHEAT
Wheat is wheat. Drier US HRS 2 week forecast is helping Minn futures. Some still feel MWU could test 9.00-9.50. Lower WA and OR white wheat ratings could also support cash prices there. NASS rated the US HRS crop at only 16 pct G/E vs 70 ly. Some ND farmers are slowly zero out spring wheat fields. Manitoba Canada provinces issued a crop disaster warning due to dry weather. World wheat trade is increasing but east Europe and Black Sea prices are still lower than US. Some feel US crop could be closer to 1,790 mil bu vs NASS 1,898 and carryout near 670 vs WOB 770. WU recent range has been 6.15-6.94. WU traded below the 200 day moving ave near 6.38. There is a gap from 6.38 to 6.48 that offers strong resistance. KWU made new lows for the move. 47 pct of US winter wheat crop is harvested vs 51 ly. KS is 62, MO 66 and OR 2. WA rating was only 20 pct G/E, OR 12. MWU held support near 7.93. Gap is from 8.05-8.26.
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