Written Commentary
Global Ag News for Mar 25.24
March 25, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybean trades sharply lower. Concentrated selling pushed futures lower after rains fell across the dry areas of SD. Rains then moved across NE Neb, SW MN, NW IA and WI. These rains should help corn and soybean crops there. US east Midwest soybean crop remains atleast average to above. Weekly US soybean exports were near 7 mil bu vs 20 last year. Season to date exports are near 2,111 mil bu vs 1,373 last year. WOB goal is 2,280. Some are closer to 2,900. 2021/22 up now to yield but one group est the crop near 4,333 vs WOB 4,405,. This and 20 mil bu more demand could suggest a US 2021/22 carryout near 100 mil bu vs WOB 155. Trade looks for NASS to rate the US soybean crop near 60 pct G/E vs 60 last week.
CQG November Soybean Futures Chart
CORN
Corn futures closed down the 40 cent daily limit. At close, CU synthetic was near 5.49 with 6,611 contracts offered. CZ synthetic was near 5.39 with 42,000 offered. Weekend rains across SD with rains today moving across parts of NE, MN, IA and WI weighing on prices. Managed funds sold 25,000 contracts before locking down the limit. Noon maps suggested additional rains for parts of NE, MO, S IL and KY. Thur-Sat. At the same time maps reduced rains from SD to OH. Maps continued to forecast rain for next Sun-Tue for parts of S IL, KY and OH. Weekly US corn exports were near 48 mil bu vs 41 last year. Season to date exports are near 2,289 mil bu vs 1,353 last year. WOB goal is 2,850. Some are closer to 2,900. This and higher feed and ethanol demand could drop US 2020/21 corn carryout to near 1,000 mil bu vs WOB 1,107. 2021/22 up now to yield but one group est the crop near 14,820 vs WOB 14,990. This and 300 mil bu more demand could suggest a US 2021/22 carryout near 900 mil bu vs WOB 1,357. Trade est US corn crop rating to remain near 64 pct G/E.
CQG Nearby December Corn Futures
WHEAT
Wheat traded sharply lower. Rains across the US north plains weighed on HRS futures. Talk of higher than expected HRW and SRW yields and lower corn prices also offered resistance to futures. Slow US wheat export trade also limits new buying. Rains could help US HRS crop but weekly crop ratings could still drop 1-2 pct from last weeks 20. US winter wheat harvest could be 48 pct. Weekly US wheat exports were near 9 mil bu vs 15 last year. Season to date exports are near 66 mil bu vs 88 last year. WOB goal is 900. 2021/22 up now to yield and harvested acres. One group est the crop near 1,797 vs WOB 1,898. This could suggest a US 2021/22 carryout near 678 mil bu vs WOB 770. US Dollar traded higher. Most commodities traded lower. There may be some concern that US/World fuel and food demand may not increase as much as hoped.
CQG Nearby Chicago Wheat Futures
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