Written Commentary
Global Ag News for Mar 25.24
March 25, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended higher with SU near 13.59 and SX near 13.49. Soybean futures were support by higher soyoil futures which were supported by record high World canola prices. There was talk before the WOB report that Canada cold loses 5-7 mmt of their 19.5 mmt crop due to dry weather. Canada and ND forecast remain warm and dry. USDA failed to raise US 2021/22 soybean demand. WOB est US 2021/22 soybean carryout at 155 mil bu vs 148 expected and 155 in June. WOB est World 2021/22 soybean carryout at 94.4 mmt vs 92.6 expected and 92.5 in June. Key for soybean prices will be US LH July and August weather and China soybean demand.
CORN
Corn futures traded higher. For much of 2021, wheat futures have followed the direction of corn. Today surprise low est of US HRS crop and concern over Canada and ND crops triggered new buying in wheat and corn followed. CU is near 5.45. 5.46 is the 100 day moving average resistance. Key resistance is the 5.70 gap. Need some help from either Mother Nature of China buying to push over 5.70. Mondays 2 week US Midwest forecast will be key to price direction. USDA failed to lower Brazil corn crop enough and raise US 2021/22 corn demand. WOB est US 2021/22 corn carryout at 1,432 mil bu vs 1,402 expected and 1,357 in June. This due to higher 2021 acres. WOB est Brazil 2021 corn crop near 93.0 mmt vs 92.2 expected and 98.5 in June. WOB est World 2021/22 corn carryout at 291.6 mmt vs 288.9 expected and 289.4 in June. USDA left China 20/21 corn import at 26.0 mmt and 21/22 at 26.0 mmt. Weekly US corn exports were near 39 mil bu vs 36 last year. Season to date exports are 2,328 vs 1,389 ly. WOB goal is 2,850 vs 1,777 ly. WOB raised US 21/22 corn exports to 2,500 vs 2,450 previous. Some are closer to 2,900. Most feel US weekly crop rating will either be down 1, unch or up 1 from last week 64 pct G/E.
WHEAT
Wheat futures rallied sharply after NASS July est of US HRS crop. NASS stole the report show today by est US 2021 spring wheat and durum crop lower than expected. NASS est US 2021 wheat crop at 1,746 mil bu vs 1,898 in June. WW 1,364. SW 305. WOB est US 2021/22 wheat carryout at 665 mil bu vs 729 expected and 770 in June. The drop in the US wheat crop and Russia wheat crop lowered World wheat carryout. WOB est World 2021/22 wheat carryout at 291.6 mmt vs 295.4 expected and 296.8 in June. WOB est Canada 2021 wheat crop at 31.5 mmt vs 32.0 in June and 35.1 last year. Continued dry summer Canada and ND weather could drop crops there even more. Most look for weekly US WW harvest near 60 pct vs 45 last week. Trade looks for the HRS crop rating to remain near 16 pct G/E. Some feel it could from another 1-2 pct. Record low rating was 6 pct G/E in 1988. Weekly US Wheat exports were near 14 mil bu vs 24 last year. Season to date exports are 85 mil bu vs 113 last year. WOB dropped US exports guess from 900 to 875. Feed/residual was dropped to 170 from 180. US HRW carryout is 369 vs 426 ly, HRS 119 vs 235 and SRW 105 vs 85 ly.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
