Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
CORN
Prices finished steady to $.01 higher as spreads firmed a touch in choppy 2 sided trade. Dec-24 turned lower after not being able to hold early strength, and rebounded after holding support above $4.00. Conab will also be out tomorrow with their Brazil production updates. Ethanol production improved to 1,080 tbd in the week ended Fri. Sept. 6th, up from 1,061 tbd the previous week and up 4% from YA. Production was above expectations. There was 108.5 mil. bu. of corn used in the production process, or 15.5 mil. bu. per day well above the 14.9 mbd needed to reach the 24/25 usage forecast of 5.450 bil. With 1 day of this usage applied to the 2023/24 MY, cumulative usage for the new 24/25 MY is 93 mil. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range between 30-60 mil. bu.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mixed with beans up $.03-$.05, meal was $2-$3 higher, while oil was 30-50 lower. Nov-24 soybeans chopped around both sides of $10.00 while holding support above the September low at $9.95 ¼. Resistance is at the 50 day MA at $10.24 ¾. Oct-24 meal rejected trade below yesterday’s low and the 50 day MA. Resistance is at the September high at $328.50. Oct-24 oil set a new low for the month while closing below $.40 lb. Next support is the contract low just above $.38 lb. Spot board crush margins slipped $.03 to $1.32 ¼, a 3 month low while bean oil PV fell below 39%. Hurricane Francine is expected to make landfall in Louisiana tonight with winds exceeding 100 mph. Some minor production damage to soybeans in LA is possibly with harvest reported at 40% as of this past Sunday. Corn harvest was already 98% complete in LA. Rainfall of 2-5” will be common along the US Gulf coast and extend into southern portions of the Midwest. Little moisture west of the Mississippi river however, while heavy amounts are also not expected to extend into central IL or IN. Egypt bought nearly 70k mt of sunflower oil in today’s tender paying $1,045/mt CF for 40k mt and $1,047/mt CF for 30k mt. Delivery is from late November to mid-December. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range between 30-60 mil. bu. for soybeans, 200-600k tons for meal and 5-20k tons of oil.
WHEAT
Prices were $.04-$.07 higher across all 3 classes today. Dec-24 Chicago challenged its 2 month high at $5.82 ¾. Next resistance for Dec-24 KC is $5.94 and $6.28 ¼ for MGEX Dec-24. Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry reports their grain exports as of Sept. 11th at 8.2 mmt are well above the 5.4 mmt at this point YA. Wheat shipments make up 4.3 mmt, (up from 2.5 mmt YA) corn 2.5 mmt, with barley at 1.2 mmt. Russia’s Ag. Ministry maintains their grain production forecast at 132 mmt for 2024 with exports reaching 60 mmt. While not mentioning wheat or other feed grains, Russian Pres. Putin did propose restricting their exports of nickel, titanium and uranium while on a video meeting with Govt. officials. He suggested it might be worth curbing their sales as long as it doesn’t harm their own interests. Despite over 2 years of war they remain the global leader in wheat exports. No US wheat production est. tomorrow as they will be updated at the end of September. EU production of wheat will be one of the most closely watched numbers in tomorrow’s USDA data. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range between 10-20 mil. bu.
Charts provided by USDA Charts.
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