Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
CORN
Corn futures are lower but trying to hold near 50 DMA. Trade was concerned this am about hedge pressure as US harvest is beginning. No word on harvest yields. USDA est US yield at 183.1. vs 177.3 last year. USDA 2024/25 crop is est at 15,147 mil bu or down 195 mil bu vs ly. Ethanol use is est at 5,450 mil bu unch vs ly. Exports are est at 2,300 ,up 50 vs ly. Feed and residual is est at 5,825 mil bu or up 50 mil bu vs ly. This leaves US 2024/25 carryout at 2,073 mil bu or up 206 mil bu. US export price competitive vs Soth America and Ukraine. Steep drop In China domestic corn price could limit their imports. Brazil and Argentina farmers are waiting for rain to start planting
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures are lower and dropped below 10.00 SX. Trade was concerned this am about hedge pressure as US harvest could begin as early as next week. No word on harvest yields. USDA est US yield at 53.2. vs 52.0 last year. USDA 2024/25 crop is est at 4,589 mil bu or up 424 mil bu vs ly. Crush is est at a record 2,425 mil bu and up 135 mil bu vs ly. Exports are est at 1,850 ,up 150 vs ly. This leaves US 2024/25 carryout at 560 mil bu or up 285 mil bu. Higher crush due to USDA est of higher soyoil biofuel use and higher both domestic and export soymeal.
WHEAT
Wheat futures are higher with WZ near 5.72, KWZ near 5.81 and MWZ near 6.10. Could be some short covering before USDA report. USDA est US yield at 52.2. vs 48.6 last year. USDA 2024/25 crop is est at 1,982 mil bu or up 170 mil bu vs ly. Exports are est at 825 ,up 118 vs ly. This leaves US 2024/25 carryout at 828 mil bu or up 126 mil bu. HRW crop is up 175 and carryout up 80. HRS crop is up 31 and carryout up 40. SRW crop is down 107 and carryout up 10 USDA SRW export est is down 48 mil bu. Nearby Russia export price offers support. Russia deferred export prices is in a wide carry and offers resistance.
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