Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended higher. Soymeal gained on soyoil. SX ended near 13.74 with session high near 13.98. Record China crush margins is supportive. Improved US river logistics also provided early support. Weekly US export inspections were delayed until Tuesday due to holiday. USDA will show the higher US 2022 soybean carryin but lower crop on Oct 12. USDA could increase crush 30 mil bu but lower US exports 100 mil bu. Carryout could be near 260 mil bu ‘vs USDA 200. Infroma lowered World soybean crop 1.4 mmt due to lower US crop. Strong seasonal that March soybean makes a bottom October 1.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher. The big risk on is Russia response to Crimean bridge. Last week, there was hope Russia will extend the Ukraine export corridor. Now the feeling is they may not. Weekly US export inspections were delayed until Tuesday due to holiday. USDA will show the lower US 2022 corn carryin and crop on Oct 12. USDA could increase feed and residual use, lower ethanol use and exports. Carryout could be near 1,065 mil bu vs USDA 1,219. Infoma lowered World corn crop 1.7 mmt. Lower US crop was offset by higher Brazil. Trade still trying to figure out China crop. USDA is 274.0. Some are closer to 240.0. Strong seasonal that March corn makes a bottom in mid-November. Matif corn closed higher. Interior EU corn basis is currently higher than wheat. French corn harvest is 67 pct complete and yields continue to suggest a crop of 10 mmt. Russian harvested acres to date are down around 50 pct due to rain, and there are increasing reports of mold. Argentina is dry. CBOT corn is at 16-week highs.US corn harvest is estimated near 30-35 pct.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended sharply higher. Dry US south plains weather and forecast offers support. Weekly US export inspections were delayed until Tuesday due to holiday. USDA will show the lower US 2022 wheat crop on Oct 12. USDA could increase imports, drop food use, feed use and exports. Carryout could be near 575 mil bu vs USDA 610. Matif wheat gapped higher closing at a 15-week high following the Russian reaction to the bombing of the Kerch bridge. Russia launched mass strikes on Ukraine in retaliation which sent markets sharply higher. The debate goes on about the corridor. 120 grain vessels are waiting at Istanbul for clearance. Vessels carrying Iranian drones for Russia are reported to be moving through the Bosphorus with no problem. Russian winter planting is the slowest in 9 years, some 15-20 pct below average. Ukraine, winter wheat and barley acreage is now seen by some as dropping by 50-70 pct. Informa raised World wheat crop 7 mmt. They increased Russia 4 mmt, Australia 2 mmt, EU 1 mmt and Brazil 1 mmt. They dropped Argentina 1 mmt.
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