Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
SOYBEANS
Soybean traded lower. Soybean market is seeing new selling on concern about slowing US soybean export demand and favorable South America weather. Brazil soybean plantings are done and some could see new crop Brazil soybeans for export in January. Brazil is also offering Soymeal for export at a discount to US. Weekly US soybean exports were near 78 mil bu vs 89 last year. Season to date exports are near 776 mil bu vs 1,002 last year. USDA revised last week’s US soybean export 27 mil bu. Some forecast China December all origin soybean imports could be near 11 mmt. Most could see USDA drop US exports 100 mil bu and raise carryout to near 440. Bulls need a South America weather problem for prices to rally.
CORN
Corn futures ended lower. Some feel Fridays rally was overdone due to option expiration. Trade is worried about larger Argentina and Ukraine supplies reducing US corn export demand. Weekly US corn exports were near 30 mil bu vs 42 last year. USDA revised last week exports up 8 mil bu. Season to date exports are near 337 mil bu vs 407 last year. USDA goal is 2,500 vs 2,753 last year. Some feel USDA could lower US export but raise ethanol use in their next report and leave carryout near 1,493 mil bu. CZ is gaining on CH as first noting nears. There are no deliveries expected. Strong domestic corn basis could limit deliveries. Some feel US domestic corn users remain short and need corn for use. USDA estimates World corn trade near 203 mmt vs 176 last year. US 63 vs 70, Brazil 43 vs 17, Argentina 39 vs 38 and Ukraine 31 vs 23. 2021/22 World con end stocks 304 mmt vs 291 ly with China 210 mmt of the total.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended mixed. WZ ended near 8.07. Range was 8.05-8.40. KWZ ended near 8.54. Range was 8.47-8.82. WZ and KWZ started higher on talk that Fridays selloff was overdone. There was also hope that new South Africa virus may not be as bad as feared. Fact that Australia raised there wheat, barley and canola crops estimates weighed on prices. Some fear that as much as 5 mmt of the crop could be rated feed quality due to persistent rains. Russia interior wheat and flour prices continue to trend higher. Bulls still feel lower World supplies and higher trade supports higher prices. US south plains weather remains dry. This week Australia looks drier but showers return next weekend. Weekly US wheat exports were near 9 mil bu vs 19 last year. Season to date exports are near 395 vs 475 last year. Some feel USDA could drop US exports 50 mil bu on their next report. At the same time USDA could drop World supply 2-3 mmt and raise trade 3-5 mmt. USDA est World trade near 203 mmt vs 201 last year and end stocks near 275 vs 287 ly and of which 141 is China.
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