Written Commentary
Ag Market View for October 2.2025
October 2, 2025
CORN
Prices were $.03 – $.04 lower today with every contract experiencing an inside trading session. Resistance for May-24 is at yesterday’s high of $4.33 ½. Weather conditions in SA remain favorable with widespread rainfall coverage expected for both Brazil and Argentina over the next 2 weeks. A Bloomberg survey estimates US corn endings stocks will drop 17 mil. to 2.155 bil. Little change expected for Argentine production which was 55 mmt in Feb-24. Brazilian production is expected to drop 2 mmt to 122 mmt. The Chinese Minister of Agriculture claims their total grain production in 2023 reached a record at 695 mmt, the 9th consecutive year it surpassed 650 mmt. They also set a goal or increasing production by 50 mmt within 7 years. Texas corn plantings are reported at 14% complete, vs. 16% YA and 5-year Ave. of 11%. Algeria is seeking 120k mt of SA feed grade corn for April shipment with offers due tomorrow. China reportedly bought another 65k mt of Ukrainian corn at $236/mt CF. EU corn imports as of Feb. 28th have reached 11.9 mmt, down 40.5% from YA. Tomorrow’s EIA report is expected to show ethanol production last week to range between 1,069 – 1080 tbd, vs. 1,078 the previous week.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex finished lower across the board with beans down $.04 – $.06, meal was $2 – $4 lower while oil was down 10 – 15. May-24 beans rejected trade above last week’s high yesterday. Near term resistance is at $11.65 ¾ with support at LW contract low of $11.28 ½. Same with May-24 meal with resistance at $337.50 and support at $323.20. May-24 oil seems to be consolidating between $.44- $.46. Surveyed estimates show very little change is expected for US soybean stocks on Friday. Little change expected for Argentine production, vs. the USDA est. of 50 mmt in Feb-24. High palm oil prices have led to India’s imports slumping 35% in Feb-24, down to 504k mt. They are being replaced by Black Sea origin sunflower oil which have surged 35% to 295k mt. Soyoil imports were off 8% to 174k mt. EU soybean imports as of Feb. 28th at 7.9 mmt are in line with YA. Last week’s Monthly EIA report on Biofuel’s showed combined biodiesel and renewable diesel capacity actually fell 6 mil. gallons to 5.930 bil. with the reduction coming from biodiesel. Combined production in Dec-23 rose 14% to an all-time record of 438 mil. gallons. Nearly all of the increased production came from RD which jumped 46 mil. gallons to 270 mil. up 80% from Dec-22. Soybean oil used for biofuel production jumped 7.4% in Dec-23 to 1.141 bil. lbs. a 3 month high and was up 29% from Dec-22. In the first 3 months of the 23/24 MY Ave. monthly BO usage is just below 1.10 bil. lbs. an annualized pace of 13.060 bil. lbs. just above the current USDA forecast of 13.0 bil. As a feedstock BO usage slipped to only 34%, down from its peak of over 50% 2 years ago. The use of tallow surged nearly 60% in Dec-23 to 744 mil. lbs. representing just over 22% of feedstock usage.
WHEAT
Prices were lower across all 3 classes today with Chicago and KC down $.09 – $.13 while MGEX was $.04 – $.05 lower. New contract low for Chicago May-24, next support is the Dec-23 low on the weekly chart at $5.27 ½. May-24 KC is working sideways between $5.57 – $5.91. FOB offers for wheat out of the Black Sea have dipped below $200/mt FOB with offers from Russia just over $200/mt. US winter wheat crop conditions fell in KS, TX and OK this week as the US southern plains has turned dryer than normal the past few weeks. 9% of the Texas crop is headed, vs. 16% YA. Algeria has reportedly started buying wheat in their recent tender with prices believed to range from $227 – $228/mt CF. Volume is believed to be near 600k mt with it likely being sourced from the Black Sea region including Russia. Jordan reportedly bought 60k mt of milling wheat at $236/mt CF for July shipment, likely from Russia. EU soft wheat exports as of Feb. 28th at 21 mmt are down nearly 2% from YA.
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