Ag Market View for June 7th

SOYBEANS

Nearby soybeans, corn and wheat were lower. Soymeal and soyoil were also lower. New crop corn and soybeans ended higher. US stocks were lower. US Dollar was lower. Crude was lower. WH Council of Economic Advisors said any inflation would be temporary. Slow weekly US export sales and forecast of some rains across US Midwest triggered selling in the nearby futures. Lower China soymeal values weighed on soymeal futures. Some forecast .50 to 2.0 rain with 40% coverage of the Corn belt in the 1-5 day outlook, with rain favoring the SE. Moisture stress is expected to increase from the current 18 pct of the Corn belt to 50 pct of the Corn belt over the next two weeks (concentrated in the north-western area). Weekly US soybean exports were near 8 mil bu. Season to date exports are near 2,082 mil bu vs 1,315 ly. USDA goal is 2,280 vs 1,682 ly. Most are looking for US to keep US 2020/21 soybean carryout near 120 mil bu and 21/22 at 140.

CORN

Nearby corn futures ended lower on talk of some Midwest rains and lower than expected weekly export shipments. Over the weekend the 30 and 60 day EU weather models suggested that most of the US upper Midwest and north plains could be warmer and drier than normal. This helped CN test 7.06 and CZ test 6.18. American GFS model continues to suggest rains across the upper Midwest. Some forecast .50 to 2.0 rain with 40% coverage of the Corn  belt in the 1-5 day outlook, with rain favoring the SE. Moisture stress is expected to increase from the current 18 pct of the Cornbelt to 50 pct of the Corn belt over the next two weeks (concentrated in the north-western area). Weekly US corn exports were near only 55 mil bu. This was below trade expectations and trigged selling in CN.  Season to date exports are near 2,063 mil bu vs 1,176 ly. USDA goal is 2,775 vs 1,778 ly. Some feel final exports could be closer to 2,875. Some are looking for US final 2020/21 corn carryout closer to 1,050 mil bu vs USDA 1,257 and US 2021/22 carryout near 1,150 vs USDA 1,507. One analyst suggested that if US final 2012 corn yield would be near last year’s 172, nearby corn futures could test the 2012 high near 8.44.

WHEAT 

Wheat futures traded lower led by MWN. Talk of rains across parts of Canada prairies and US HRS area triggered long liquidation. Nearby Chicago and KC futures followed lower corn despite lower US Dollar. Over the weekend, the EU 30 and 60 day weather forecast calls for below normal rain and above normal temps for the US north plains, PNW and Canada prairies. Over the next 1-5 days these areas could see .40-1.50 inches of rain favoring SE Saskatchewan and SW Manitoba and 4 counties in NW North Dakota. Last week, Informa said that if weather Continues dry final US HRS crop could drop 65 mil but from their est of 505 mil bu and 530 last year. Weekly US wheat exports were near 15 mil bu vs 18 ly. Season to date exports are near 5 mil bu vs 8 last year. USDA could raise US wheat crop on June 10 but lower final US HRS crop could tighten the supply.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now