Ag Market View for June 3.25

SOYBEANS

Prices turned higher across the entire complex.  Beans were up $.04-$.07, meal was slightly higher while oil was up 40-55 points in choppy, volatile trade.  Spreads firmed across the complex.  The recovery in July-25 beans was capped at its 50 day MA.  After falling to a 2 month low, July-25 oil closed back above its 100 day MA.  Inside trade for July-25 meal as it remains stuck between $290-$300 per ton for nearly 6 weeks.  The brief warmup across the central US and ECB will end in the next 24-48 hours as rains move from west to east.  Heavy rains the past 24 hours across central NE will help ease drought conditions.  Widespread rains of 1-3” will be common across much of the nation’s midsection thru the end of the week.    Heavier totals of 3+” in SE plains and S. Midwest could pose a threat to the winter wheat crop with harvest just underway. Spot board crush margins were steady at $1.21 ½ per bu. however new crop margins slipped $.03 ½ to $1.74 ½ per bu.  Census crush in April at 202 mil. bu. was in line with expectations.  YTD crush is up 5.8% from YA, exactly in line with the USDA forecast.  Oil stocks in April fell 5% from March to 1.976 bil. lbs, below expectations and down 14.5% from April-24. Soybean plantings at 84% continue to outpace the historical Ave. of 80%, however have slipped off from the record pace they were on.  Initial ratings at 67% G/E were in line with expectations.  Chinese media reports 1 of their top diplomats met with the US ambassador to China where he told his US counterpart their 2 counties relations are at a juncture and hopes the US will promote healthy bilateral negotiations and can get relations back on track.  EU soybean imports as of June 1^st at 12.9 mmt are up 6.6% YOY.  Meal imports are up 25.5%.