Written Commentary
UNICA Report Approaches
August 14, 2025
CORN
Prices closed $.06-$.07 higher today. Spreads however continue to weaken with Sept/Dec reaching a new low at -$.20. Dec-25 worked its way back into the gap left from the sharply lower open on July 7th. Trade up to $4.32 ¾ is required to fill the gap vs. today’s high of $5.30 ¼. Next resistance at the 50 day MA of $4.35. Weather right now is outweighing recent bearish demand news. Yesterday export sales were lousy, this while the Trump Admin. works to lower the consumption of corn syrup in the US. There has been some evidence of pollination issues across portions of the Midwest due to lack of nighttime cooling with the current forecasts not ideal for the later developing crop or kernel fill. IMO at recent lows the market was factoring in yields near or above 185 bpa. Late yesterday the BAGE reported Argentine harvest advanced 9% LW to 79% complete. They left their production forecast unchanged at 49 mmt, vs. the USDA at 50 mmt. With Brazil’s 2nd crop harvest slower than usual I’d expect further production increases in future USDA reports much like 2 years ago.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed across the complex with soybeans up $.06-$.10, meal was $5 higher closing at session highs, while oil was 40-60 lower after trading to its highest level since Oct-2023. Bean spreads were mixed, oil spreads firmed up while meal spreads were flat. Aug-25 beans topped out right at its 100 day MA at $10.37 ¼. Nov-25 beans have traded thru both its 50 and 100 day MA’s while coming within a penny of filing its gap from July 7th. Weather premium was injected as expanding heat across the nation’s midsection next week could threaten this year’s yield potential. The current cool temperatures across the northern Midwest won’t last as heat in the S. Plains begins to expand across the WCB this weekend and into the central Midwest by early to the middle part of next week. 100+ degree readings across the S. Plains this weekend while low to mid 90’s will be common across much of the central and ECB by the middle of next week. Rainfall over the next week to favor the eastern part of the N. Plains along with the central and ECB where 1-2” will be common. Spot board crush margins ticked up $.01 at $1.89 bu., with bean oil PV setting back to 50.5%. New crop margins slipped $.04 to $2.11 bu. This afternoons CFTC report will likely show MM’s net short across the Ag. space with the exception of soybean oil where they are net long roughly 40k contracts. Still looking at a record short position in meal. Yesterday’s speculative buying saw a nearly 9k contract jump in soybean oil O.I. Still searching for evidence trade negotiations with China are making progress
WHEAT
Prices were higher across the 3 classes today with HRW and SRW both up $.11-$.13. Sept-25 CGO has topped out right at its 50 day MA at $5.50 ¼. Resistance for Sept-25 KC is at $5.41 ½. MIAX spring wheat futures lagged closing up only $.01 as rains in the N. Plains will help production prospects. US winter wheat harvest is winding down in the S. Plains. The last CFTC report showed MM’s net short 43k contracts in KC-HRW, short 56k in CGO-SRW while long 2k in MIAX, which may also help explain today’s price action. Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest has reached 7.2 mmt, of that 4.67 mmt is wheat and 2.18 mmt of barley.
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