Ag Market View for July 17.25

SOYBEANS

A late session recovery in soybean meal enabled prices to close higher across the complex.  Beans were $.06-$.08 higher, meal was up less than $1 while oil has surged $.014 per lbs.  Bean and meal spreads were mixed while oil spreads weakened.  Aug-25 beans jumped out to a 1 week high with next resistance at the 100 day MA at 10.37 ½.  Aug-25 oil has surged to its highest level since Sept-23.  Inside trade for Aug-25 meal.  Spot board crush margins jumped $.08 to $1.88 bu., with bean oil PV at a modern day high just over 51%.  Rumors that trade negotiations with China are going well seem to be providing underlying support.  Weather wise a seasonally cool pattern has settled in across much of the northern half of the Midwest.  It won’t last too long however as heat in the S. Plains begins to build across the WCB this weekend and into the central Midwest by early next week.  Temperature readings of 100-105 will be common for the S. Plains with low to mid 90’s across much of the central and ECB by the middle of next week.  Export sales at 30 mil. bu. were in line with expectations.  Old crop commitments at 1.861 bil. are up 12% from YA vs. the revised USDA forecast of up 10%.  New crop sales at 87 mil. bu. represent only 5% of the USDA forecast, vs. the historical average of 14%.  Soybean meal sales at 531k tons (357k–2024/25 MY, 174k–25/26) were in line with expectations.  Old crop commitments are up 13.5% from YA, vs. USDA up 8%.  Bean oil sales at 8k tons (17.4 mil. lbs) were in line with expectations.  YTD commitments at 2.380 bil. lbs. represent 91.5% of the USDA forecast.  ABIOVE held their Brazilian production forecast steady at 169.7 mmt, however raised their crush forecast .3 mmt to 57.8 mmt, vs. the USDA forecast of 57 mmt.  The increase is crush was driven by the increased mandatory biodiesel blend rated from 14% to 15% starting Aug. 1^st.  The Rosario Grain Exchange raised their Argentine production forecast 1 mmt to 49.5 mmt just below the USDA est. at 49.9 mmt.