Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended lower but off session lows. Talk that the dry areas of South Brazil and Argentina could see needed rains late next week weighed on prices. The problem is that between now and late next week Argentina weather could see temps above 100F and no rain. Significant damage could be done before the rains. AG Rural lowered their Brazil soybean crop to 133 mmt from 144. Informa lowered World 2022 soybean crop 9 mmt, 4 in Brazil and 4 in Argentina. Some estimates are down as much as 20 mmt. Weekly US soybean export sales were only 14 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,532 mil bu vs 2,005 ly (-473). USDA goal is 2,050 vs 2,265 ly (-215). Soybean open interest remains low near 654,000 contracts despite the 206 cent rally since the Nov 9 low. Funds sold 4,000 soybeans and are net long 103,000. Record long was 254,000 in 2012.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher and near session high. Corn futures managed only small gains. Corn futures started lower but is up on the day. Like soybeans, corn saw new selling on a forecast that calls for rains across the dry areas of South America late next week. Informa lowered US 2022 corn crop 8 mmt, 4 in Argentina and 2 in Brazil. Some are 10 mmt lower in estimates of SA corn crop than Informa. 6.00 CH may be cheap if Argentina, Brazil lose a part of their 2022 corn crop. BAGE rated the Argentina corn crop 40 pct G/E vs 58 last week. Weekly US corn export sales were only 10 mil bu. Total commit is near1,614 mil bu vs 1,730(-116) last year. USDA gola is 2,500 vs 2,753 (-253), China commit is near 480 mil bu, Mexico 480, Canada a record 120 and unknown 106 mil bu, Corn open interest is up 106,000 contracts since the Nov 30 low near 5.62. Funds were small net buyer of 3,000 corn and are estimated long 382,000 contracts. Their record long was 429,000 contract on 9/2010.
WHEAT
Wheat futures continue to slide lower due to slow US export demand and higher South Hemisphere crops. Informa raised World 2022 wheat crop 1 mmt due to higher Argentina crop. BAGE rated the wheat crop 76 pct G/E vs 78 last week. Informa also estimates World 2022/23 wheat crop up 16 mmt due to higher US and Canada offset lower Australia. Weekly US wheat export sales were only 2 mil bu. Total commit is near 583 mil bu vs 765 (-182) ly. USDA goal including flour is 840 mil bu vs 992 ( -152) ly. Chicago wheat open interest remains low at 360,000 contracts. Managed funds are net short 21,000 contract. Their record short was 162,000 in 2017. Record long was 80,000 in 2012. WH is oversold. Support is 7.30. Resistance is 7.60.
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