Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
SOYBEANS
Soybean traded sharply higher. Talk of lower South America soybean supplies that could eventually increase US soybean exports triggered new buying. SH is testing key resistance near 13.84. South America weather could drop their crop 15-20 mmt (550-730 mil bu). There is even talk of potentially higher losses if the current weather pattern continues through January. Talk of lower lysine supplies and lower Argentina crop helped SMH make new highs. Soyoil is gaining on soymeal today on talk of lower palmoil supplies. US soyoil exports to date are 80 pct of USDA goal. This and
forecast of higher demand for soyoil for jet fuel could tighten US soyoil supplies. Confirmation of lower SA soybean supplies could send SH over 14.00. In their last report, USDA estimated World soybean trade near a record 172 mmt vs 164 ly. Brazil exports at a record 94 mmt vs 81 ly. US 55 vs 62 ly. There was also talk that China crushers were concerned about higher futures for unpriced open sales.
CORN
Corn futures traded sharply higher. CH traded and closed over initial resistance on talk that South America weather could drop total 2022 corn production from USDA recent estimate. CH traded over initial resistance near 6.03. Next target could be 6.17. Strong US ethanol production and margins demands more cash movement. US farmers sold cash last week but may be done for now. Pipeline may need to invert spread to move elevator corn. Lower South America crop could add to US export demand. Some are dropping SA corn crop 10-15 mmt (400-600 mil bu). USDA estimated Brazil corn crop near 118 mmt vs 87 last year. They estimate Argentina crop at 54.5 mmt vs 50.5 ly. There was talk today that one trading house dropped their Brazil crop to 113. There was also talk that Argentina crop near 52.0 mmt vs USDA 54.5 and BAGE 57.0. Some though doubt USDA will make changes like this on Jan 12 report. They may wait 30 more days to make big changes. USDA also estimates World corn trade at a record 205 mmt vs 177 last year. US exports at 63.5 vs 69.9 ly. Brazil 43.0 vs 18.5 ly. Ukraine 32.5 vs 23.8 ly. Argentina 39.0 vs 38.5 ly.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher. Wheat followed corn higher. Fact US wheat prices are not competitive, higher US Dollar and low US exports offers resistance. Fact USDA drop US HRW crop ratings more than expected could help support KC futures vs Chicago and Minneapolis. There is talk that Iraq may buy US wheat in their tender. WH ended near 7.70. Range was 7.56-7.71. Resistance is near 7.80 then 8.00. KWH ended near 8.03. Range 7.92-8.05. Resistance is 8.17. MWH ended near 9.70. Range was 9.61-9.76. Increase moisture in the form of snow is helping US north plains vs last year while dry US south plains could stress the 2022 HRW crop there. USDA rated the KS crop 33 pct G/E vs 51 in Dec and 62 in Nov. NE was rated 39 pct G/E vs 64 in Nov and 37 ly. OK was rated 20 pct G/E vs 48 in Nov. USDA est World wheat exports a record 205 mmt vs 202 ly. EU 37, Russia 36, Ukraine 34,Australia 25.5, US 22.8 and Argentina 13.5. World wheat end stocks are 278 mmt of which China is 141 or 51 pct.
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