Ag Market View for Dec 9th

SOYBEANS

Soybeans and soymeal ended higher. Managed funds were net buyers of 3,000 soybeans, 3,000 soymeal and sold 3,000 soyoil. USDA left US 2021/22 soybean carryout at 340. There was some fear that they would lower US exports and raise carryout. USDA raised US soyoil supply but also demand and left end stocks near 1,916 mil lbs. Still soyoil lost to soymeal and soyoil as share of board crush dropped to lowest level since April. USDA lowered World soybean stocks to 102.0 mmt from 103.7 due to lower China stocks. China imports were left at 100.0 mmt. Brazil soybean crop was left at 144.0 mmt and Argentina at 49.5 mmt. Weekly US soybean export sales were 60 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,425 vs 1,940 ly. USDA left US soybean crush at 2,190 mil bu vs 2,141 ly. Focus now will be SA weather and China demand.

CORN

Corn futures ended higher. Despite the fact that USDA did not change US corn carryout prices bounced off session lows. Managed funds were net buyers of 4,000 contracts. CH managed to close over 5.90 resistance. Trade over 5.96 would suggest a new bullish trend. USDA left US 2021/22 corn carryout at 1,493. There was some hope that they would raise ethanol use and lower the carryout. USDA raised World corn stocks to 305.5 mmt from 304.4 due to higher Ukraine crop. China imports were left at 26.0 mmt. Weekly US corn export sales were 44 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,439 vs 1,561 ly. USDA left US corn exports at 2,500 vs 2,753 ly. Brazil corn crop was left at 118.0 mmt and Argentina at 54.5 mmt. USDA left US feed use at 5,650 mil bu versus 5,601 last year. USDA also left ethanol corn use at 5,250 mil bu vs 5,028 ly. Some feel final use could be closer to 5,400. USDA raised World corn trade to 204.8 mmt vs 203.4 ly. USDA raised Ukraine crop 2 mmt to 40 mmt and EU crop 2.5 mmt to 70.3. USDA raised  World corn domestic feed use 3.5 mmt to 750.7 mmt vs 724.6 last year. Trade over 6.00 CH could suggest  attest of 6.25.

Eddie Tofpik, Head of Technical Analysis

WHEAT

Only number USDA made big changed was to Wheat. Managed funds were net sellers of 10,000 Chicago wheat contracts. USDA raised US 2021/22 wheat carryout at 598. They lowered exports 20 and imports 5. USDA dropped US exports to 840 mil bu vs 992 last year. Weekly US wheat export sales were 8 mil bu. Total commit is near 535 vs 702 ly. USDA left food use at 962 mil bu and feed use at 135 mil bu vs 95 ly. USDA raised HRW stocks 10 mil bu to 309 vs 428 ly. SRW stocks were left at 93 mil bu vs 85 ly. US HRS stocks were increase 5 mil bu to 132 mil bu vs 235 ly. USDA raised World wheat stocks to 278.2 mmt from 275.8 due to higher World crops. Australis crop was raided 2.5 mmt to 34.0, Canada .6 to 21.6, EU .3 to 138.7 and Russia 1.0 to 75.5. USDA raised World wheat exports 2.3 mmt to 205.4 and domestic feed use 2.1 mmt to 160.6.

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