Ag Market View for Dec 6th

SOYBEANS

Soybean complex futures ended mixed. Soyoil gained on higher World palmoil futures and higher energy prices. Weekly US soybean exports were near 82 mil bu vs 95 last year. Season to date exports are near 866 mil by vs 1,097 last year. USDA goal is 2,050 mil bu vs 2,265 last year. Some feel USDA could lower US exports on this weeks report and raise carryout. USDA is expected to keep their est of South America soybean crops unchanged from November but that supply is above last year and negative to prices. Drier S Brazil and NE Argentina forecast could support futures. USDA est World soybean trade near 172 mmt vs 164 ly. US exports 55 mmt vs 61 ly. Brazil exports 94 mmt vs 81 ly. USDA est World soymeal exports near 70 mmt vs 68 ly. Argentina 29 vs 28, Brazil 17 vs 16 and US 12 vs 12.

CORN

Corn futures ended unchanged. Corn futures remain range bound. Strong US domestic basis and positive ethanol margins helps support prices. Weekly US corn exports were near 29 mil bu vs 32 last year. Season to date exports are near 369 mil bu vs 439 last year. USDA goal is 2,500 mil bu vs 2,753 last year. Some feel USDA could raise ethanol use but lower exports on this weeks report. Key could be South America weather and if CH can trade over 6.00 in 2022. USDA estimates World corn trade near 203 mmt vs 176 last year. US exports 63 mmt vs 70 ly. Season to date exports are near 9.3 mmt vs 11.1 ly. Brazil 43 mmt vs 17, Argentina39 vs 38 and Ukraine 31 vs 23. Ukraine exports key to World trade. Any conflict between Russia and Ukraine could rally World corn prices if their exports are delayed or stopped. Some est Dec 1 US corn stocks near 11.8 bil bu vs 11.3 ly. Total Sep-Nov use 4.5 bil vs 4.8 ly. Implied feed use 2.4 vs 2.7 ly, ethanol 1.6 vs 1.6 ly and exports 445 vs 449 ly. Trade estimates US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,487 mil bu vs 1,493.

WHEAT

Wheat futures ended mixed but near session highs. Concern about funds taking profits before this weeks USDA report and steep selloff in bitcoin. Trade was also concern about follow through selling from Fridays losses after Canada and Australia crops were raised 3.6 mmt. Spread of Omicron virus also raised new concern about slower economies and commodity demand. Weekly US exports were 9 mil bu vs 19 last year. Season to date exports are 409 vs 495. USDA goal is 860 vs 992 ly. USDA estimates World wheat trade near 203 mmt vs 201 ly. EU 36 vs 29, Russia 36 vs 38, Australia 23 vs 24. Ukraine 24 vs 16 and US 23 vs 27. US Midwest and south plains weather remains dry. There is little evidence in rains there over the next 30 days. EU weather is normal. Black Sea weather is also mostly normal. There are pockets of cold air in N Russia and Canada but no signs the Canada cold air will dip down into the US yet.

 

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