Ag Market View for Dec 31st

SOYBEANS

Soybean futures ended the day near 13.39 SH. Threat of improving SA weather has triggered some long liquidation. USDA is currently estimating US 2021 soybean crop at 4,425 mil bu. Some feel the crop could be 10-20 mil bu higher. USDA estimates US soybean exports at 2,050 mil bu. Some could see exports down 50 mil bi. This could add 60-70 mil bu to USDA carryout estimates of 340. One year ago SH was trading near 10.91, SMH 356 and BOH 38 cents. Also a year ago, on their Jan report USDA dropped the US soybean crop 37 mil bu. This dropped US carryout from 175 to only 140 mil bu. Futures rallied 70 cents post report. This year, some feel USDA could raise the US crop and lower exports which could push the carryout over 400.

Mark Soderberg, grain market specialist

CORN

Corn futures ended lower. CH was near 5.93. This week, CH dropped below 6.00 on improved South America weather. Threat of increase US farmer selling cash in the New Year also offered resistance. USDA estimates US 2021 corn crop near 15,062 mil bu. Some feel USDA could increase the crop 200-300 mil bu. A higher crop could increase USDA feed and residual. USDA estimate of US Dec 1 stocks could be critical in implied feed and residual use, USDA estimates US ethanol corn use could be increased by 100-200 mil bu. This could help offset a higher crop. US exports are estimated at 2,500 mil bu vs 2,753 last year. Some feel lower SA supplies could help increase final exports. All of this still suggest US 2021/22 corn carryout could remain near 1,500. Corn is also on hold waiting for more news about South America 2022 supplies. One year ago CH was trading near 4.40. Also a year ago, on their Jan report USDA dropped the US corn crop 325 mil bu. This dropped US carryout from 1,702 to 1,552 mil bu. Futures rallied 22 cents post report.

WHEAT

Wheat futures traded lower. Wire services blame the recent drop in prices to talk of some  precip form parts of the US south plains. There is also talk that US farmers could increase cash sales after the first of the year. US wheat export demand remains below the pace to reach USDA goal. Without exports, Whet futures dropped on their own weight. US farmers are also expected to increase US 2022 acres. Key remains US 2022 weather. USDA estimates US 2021/22 export near 840 mil bu. Some feel final exports could be down 50 mil bu. All of this despite talk of lower EU and Russia.  One year ago WH was trading near 6,21. Also a year ago, on their Jan report USDA raised US wheat feed use. This dropped US carryout from 863 to 836 mil bu. Futures rallied 34 cents post report. This year, some feel USDA could lower US export demand and could increase the carryout near 900.

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