Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended lower. SH range was 13.63-13.84. Trade was supported by talk of lower Brazil crop/supply. Morning weather maps added some rain for the dry areas of Paraguay and S Brazil. Noon maps reduced those rains. Slow weekly US soybean exports could limit the upside in futures. Some feel USDA could drop US exports on Jan 12. Key will be their estimate of 2021 soybean crop and final 2022 Brazil crop. Jan soybean crush margins are back to near +178. Contract high was +200. SN22-SX22 is near +107. US domestic crush demand remains strong and supports old/new spread. Last week, Managed funds were net buyers of 32,000 soybeans, 10,000 soymeal and 6,000 soyoil. SH has become overbought.
CORN
Corn futures ended lower. CH had an outside day closing below Thursday low. CH had become overbought near Thursdays high. Trade was supported by talk of lower Brazil crop/supply. Morning weather maps added some rain for the dry areas of Paraguay and S Brazil. Noon maps reduced those rains. Slow weekly US corn exports may limit the upside in futures. Some feel USDA could increase US total corn demand on Jan 12. Key will be their estimate of 2021 corn crop and final 2022 Brazil crop. Weekly US ethanol production should be near last week. Production pace is above USDA goal. Margins remain positive. Last week, Managed funds were net buyers of 14,000 corn contracts. Managed funds are now long 422,000 total CBOT contracts. Some feel lower South America corn supplies could help increase Managed fund long to closer to 520,000 contracts. Lower Brazil supplies could force Brazil to import corn as soon as March. Current spread between Argentina and Brazil is not yet equal to a level to imports. CH failed to trade over 6.18 resistance. Lower wheat traded may have weighed on corn. CH is now back to near 6.00 support. CN22-CZ22 spread backed off 2 cents and is near +57. Corn open interest was up 18,000 contracts suggesting new longs near Thursdays high.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ran into resistance near 8.24 WH and 8.71 KWH on word that Iraq may have delayed their wheat tender. There is also talk that snow in Russia will help crops there. Low weekly US wheat exports also offered resistance. Some fear USDA could lower US wheat exports and raise carryout on Jan 12 report. Some commercials are also negative wheat given slow export demand and talk US farmers could increase wheat sales in the new year. Some feel at recent highs it may have been too early to trade US 2022 weather. WH has had a wild ride from November high near 8.74 to a December low near 7.51. Thus linked to negative USDA report that added to World wheat supply. WH then rallied to near 8.21 on overall commodity rally linked to inflation concerns and dry US south plains weather. WH rolled over on lower demand concerns. After the close, Egypt announce a wheat tender for Feb/March .
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