Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
SOYBEANS
Soybean traded higher. SH is near 13.71. 13.76 is next resistance then 14.00 SN22-SX22 spread is near +106. Next resistance is near +126. Soybeans supported by dry S Brazil and NE Argentina weekend weather and 7 day dry forecast. 2nd week suggested some rain for this area but noon maps reduced amounts. SMH made new contract highs. BOH trade higher following higher energy prices. Weekly US soybean exports were 58 mil bu vs 69 last week and 83 last year. Season to date exports are 1,063 vs 1,376 last year. Some feel USDA could drop US exports on Jan 12.Key will be their estimate of 2021 soybean crop and final 2022 Brazil crop. China announced they want to increase their 2022 soybean crop. Most look for higher US 2022 soybean acres and lower prices April forward if US summer weather is normal. Range of guesses for US 2022/23 soybean carryout is 375-585 vs USDA Outlook guess of 300.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher. Dry S Brazil and NE Argentina weather is helping add Managed funds longs. Key resistance is near 6.16 CH then 6.33. Weekly US corn exports were 28 mil bu vs 39 last week and 50 last year. Season to date exports are 473 mil bu vs 556 last year. Most look for USDA to raise US 2021/22 corn demand on Jan 12. Key will be their estimate of 2021 corn crop and final 2022 Brazil crop. China announced they will try to “stabilize” their 2022 corn crop. Corn futures continues to add South America weather premium. Some feel USDA could raise US total corn demand on Jan 12. One group feels this could drop US 2021/22 corn carryout to near 1,280 mil bu vs USDA 1,493. Still another group feels USDA could increase US 2021 corn crop which would offset increase in demand and leave US 2021/22 carryout near 1,500. The two private groups also differ in their forecast of US 2022/23 supply and demand. One group looks for higher production and lower exports which would suggest a carryout closer to 1,815 mi bu vs USDA Outlook guess of 1,835. The other group would suggest higher demand and a carryout of 1,435. We lean for higher 2022 prices due to La Nina and negative PDO induced dry US summer weather.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended lower and near session lows. Wheat started higher and followed higher corn prices. Some link this to higher corn prices and new concern about US 2022 wheat supplies. Wheat futures quickly turned lower and lack of follow through technical buying and talk Iraq had delayed their wheat tended. As much as 500 mt of their total tender could be sourced from US. There was also talk of some cooling of Russia threat to invaded Ukraine and Russia snows helping crops there quickly increase selling. Wheat market remain volatile depending upon global demand for food, Russia final plans for Ukraine and US 2022 wheat supply. Weekly US wheat exports inspections were only 10 mil bu vs 15 last year. Season to date exports are 437 mil bu vs 534 last year. Some fear USDA could lower US wheat exports and raise carryout on Jan 12 report. Some are looking for US 2022 acres near 48.5 million vs 46.7 and carryout range from 685-900 vs USDA Outlook guess of 636.
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