Ag Market View for Dec 21st

SOYBEANS

Soybean ended higher. A drier than normal South Brazil and NW Argentina 2 week weather forecast triggered new buying. That triggered technical buying in soybeans and soymeal. Noon Central Brazil maps added some rain. If realized. This could add uncertainty to the long range forecast. Parana Brazil lowered their 2022 soybean crop 4 mmt to 57 mmt. Some feel this could drop the Brazil soybean crop to 141 mmt vs USDA 144. Another crop watcher lowered his Brazil soybean crop to 142 mmt with a range of 136-144. He lowered Argentina soybean crop to 49.0 mmt vs USDA 49.5. Funds were net buyers of 9,000 soybeans, 5,000 soymeal and 4,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed funds to be net long 71,000 soybeans, 49,000 soymeal and 55,000 soyoil. Record long was for soybeans 253,800 5/2012, soymeal 133,500 5/2018 and soyoil 126,000 11/2016.

QST corn chart on 4.24.24

CORN

Corn ended higher. A drier than normal South Brazil and NW Argentina 2 week weather forecast triggered new buying. This triggered technical buying in corn. Noon Central Brazil maps added some rain. If realized. This could add uncertainty to the long range forecast. Parana Brazil lowered their 2022 corn crop estimate 4 mmt to 63 mmt. Some feel this could drop the Brazil corn crop to 114 mmt vs USDA 118. Another crop watcher lowered his Brazil corn crop to 115 mmt with range 110-117. He kept his Argentina corn crop at 53 mmt vs USDA 54.5. CH retested last weeks high near 5.98. Last week, US farmers increased cash sales near 5.98. US domestic corn demand remains strong with USDA corn ethanol demand 100-150 mil bu too low. US export demand improving. Trade over 6.00 CH could suggest test of 6.16, 6.33 and 6.40. Managed funds are estimated long 363,000 contracts. Record long was 429,100 9/2010. Trade estimate of US 2021/22 corn carryout is from 1,330 to 1,510 vs USDA 1,493. Key will be final 2021 crop size and USDA estimates of final corn ethanol use and exports. Most look for 2022 US corn acres near 91.6 vs 93.3 ly. This suggest a range of US 2022/23 corn carryout between 1,575 and 1,815 vs USDA Outlook estimate of 1,935. Key is demand for US exports and US 2022 crop size.  

QST soybean chart on 4.24.24

WHEAT

Wheat futures traded higher. WH may have ran out of new selling near 7.50. KWH may have also found support near 7.80. US south plains dryness supports KC futures. Some est 2022 HRW crop at 737, carryout 191. Same analyst est US 2022 wheat crop at 1,825 carryout 470. RMA US winter wheat acres were lower than est. China continues to buy Australia wheat. Now 5 mmt. Export capacity max until May, 2022 Russia export tax is near $122.50. Could reach $142.50. Exports now estimated near 31 mmt vs USDA 36. Close over 8.44 KWH could suggest a test of 9.00. Wheat futures also found support from talk that Omicron virus despite spreading quickly may be weaker than the Wuhan and Delta virus. US government continues to stress non vaccinated to get vaccinated and booster and continue to practice common sense washing hands, wear mask when necessary and try to avoid crowds inside. Managed funds are estimated to be net short 1,000 Chicago wheat contracts. Their record long was 80,800 contracts in August, 2012. 

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