Ag Market View for Dec 13th

SOYBEANS

SH rejected Fridays high near 12.84 and is back near initial support near 12.52. Trade below today’s low could trigger more long liquidation. Fact South America weekend rains were better than expected may be triggering todays selloff. US weekly soybean exports were near 1,724 mt vs 2,334 last week and 2,458 last year. Season to date exports are near 25.4 mmt vs 32.3 last year. USDA goal is 55.8 mmt vs 61.7 ly. Exports are down 22 pct from last year vs USDA est of a 10 pct drop. Trade est US Nov NOPA soybean crush at 181.6 mil bu vs 184.0 in Oct and 181.0 last year. NOPA soyoil stocks are est near 1,903 mil lbs vs 1,834 in Oct and highest since April, 2020. There is talk that central and north Brazil soybean yields could be record high. USDA est Brazil crop at 144 mmt vs 138 ly, Argentina 49.5 vs 46.2 last year.

CORN

Corn futures ended lower. CH rejected Fridays high near 5.94 and is back near initial support near 5.82. Trade below today’s low could trigger more long liquidation. Fact South America weekend rains were better than expected may be triggering todays selloff. US weekly corn exports were near 810 mt vs 775 last week and 924 last year. Season to date exports are near 10.2 mmt vs 12.1 last year. USDA goal is 63.5 mmt vs 69.9 ly. US domestic cash basis remains firm. Some look for US Feb-May total corn demand near a record high led by ethanol use. This could help firm, basis and spreads and could eventually trade CH over 6.00. USDA est World domestic feed use at a record 750 mmt vs 724 last year. World less China corn production near 862 mmt vs 859 ly. World trade is a record 205 mmt vs 177 last year. Trade will be watching tension in Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine is World 4th highest exporter at 32.5 mmt. Trade will also be watching Brazil and Argentina weather. Brazil is the Worlds 2nd highest exporter at 43 mmt. Argentina is the 3rd at 39 mmt. US trade is estimated down to 63 mmt vs 70 last year.

Eddie Tofpik, FX technical analyst

WHEAT

Wheat futures ended mixed. Some feel Chicago and KC futures may be oversold. KWH may have found some support near 8.00. 8.35 is next resistance. There may have also been some unwinding of long corn and short Chicago wheat spreads. Some feel that eventually, lower Russia exports and higher prices plus a dry US south plains spring could push prices higher early in 2022. US weekly wheat exports were near 245 mt vs 246 last week and 263 last year. Season to date exports are near 11.4 mmt vs 13.7 last year. USDA goal is 22.8 mmt vs 27.0 ly. USDA est World wheat prod near 777 mmt vs 776 last year, feed use 160 vs 157. Exports 205 vs 201 and end stocks 278 vs 289 last year.  Some feel USDA could be 5-6 mmt to low in exports.

charts provided by Bloomberg Finance.

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