Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Market Summary For 2.10.2025
February 10, 2025
CORN
Prices were $.03-$.04 lower however both Sept-24 and Dec-24 held support above their recent lows. Spreads continue to carve out new lows. A non-threatening US weather forecast along with growing supply pressure continues to weigh on commodity valuations. Strategie Grain lowered their EU corn production forecast 2 mmt to 60 mmt, vs. the USDA forecast in July of 64 mmt. Exports at 29 mil. bu. (19 mil. – 23/24 MY, 10 – 24/25) were at the low end of expectations. Old crop commitments are up 38% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 34%. Current commitments represent 98.5% of the USDA forecast in line with the historical average. Shipments are up 34%. Mexico was a noted buyer of old crop with 12 mil. bu. however cancelled 2.5 mil. new crop. New crop sales at 230 mil. bu. are the lowest since 2019.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mostly lower with beans down $.09-$.12, meal was $2-$4 lower, while oil was mixed. Sept-24 soybeans established a new contract low while trading (and closing) below $10 for the first time. Nov-24 soybeans traded to a fresh 3 ½ year low. Sept-24 meal slipped to a new 3 week low with next support at its contract low of $313. Sept-24 oil consolidated near $.42 lb. in 2 sided trade. Dryer and cooler for much of the nation’s midsection into the middle of next week. Better prospects for needed rain in the WCB by this weekend into early next week. The updated US drought monitor shows US corn and soybean areas in drought remain historically low at only 5%. Bean exports at 48 mil. bu. (12 mil. – 23/24 MY, 36 – 24/25) were above expectations. Old crop commitments are down 14% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 15%. Current commitments represent 99% of the USDA forecast, below the historical average of 102%. Shipments are down 16%. New crop commitments at 166 mil. are the lowest since 2019 during the middle of US/China trade war. China was a buyer of 5 mil. bu. of old crop and nearly 15 mil. of new crop. Unknown was a buyer of 9 mil. bu. of new crop. Soybean meal sales at 359k ton (102k – 23/24 MY, 257k – 24/25) were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments are up 10% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. Soybean oil sales at 3k tons (11k – 23/24, -8k – 24/25) were disappointing. Old crop commitments are up 73% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 46%.
WHEAT
Prices drifted back closing slightly lower across all 3 classes. Chicago and MGEX were down $.01-$.02 while KC was $.04-$.05 lower. As expected there was an uptick of US wheat areas in drought. Strategie Grain lowered their EU soft wheat production forecast 5.8 mmt to 116.6 mmt, down from 127.2 mmt YA and the lowest in 6 years. Exports at 14 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. YTD commitments at 316 mil. are up 34% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 17%. Commitments represent 38% of the USDA forecast, below the historical average of 39.5%. By class YTD commitments vs. the USDA forecast HRW up 77% vs. USDA up 79%, SRW down 16% vs. down 30%, HRS up 30% vs. up 11% and white up 63% vs. up 22%.
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